the Exchange collapse and destiny of private investments
Panic sales of actions in the world market have forced Russians to deduce means from share investment funds. But experts advise to private investors not to escape from the market, and to enter on it – while the prices are low. However, to predict the MOM of achievement of a bottom anybody cannot yet.
the Second day successively world stock markets promptly fall. As of 15. 00 index FTSE has fallen on 2,75 %, DAX has lost 3,94 %, Dow has decreased on 3,68 %. But on - former the prices for gold &ndash grow; on 4 % B4 1877 dollars for ounce. The Russian exchange indexes at opening of trading session against sales on world platforms 2 drop. The Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has decreased on 1,83 %, and RTS index has fallen to 1,97 %. 2 15. 00 index of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange has given on 4 %, and RTS – on 3,74 %.
the negative statistics from the USA and Europe, fear of deterioration of balances of the largest banks and the general alarm concerning possible recession of world economy became the Reason of this collapse.
Thus experts advise to private Russian investors to buy becoming cheaper securities: after all in the future they will rise in price.
Time to buy
Stirring in the markets pushes Russian private investors 2 fulfilment of a widespread error – to deducing of money at the moment of market falling. Only for last two weeks from share investment funds it has been deduced 900 million roubles.
Now in the country, according to National league of managing directors, operate with 1,305 thousand PIFS, cost of a net wealth (SCHA) which for August, 19th, 2011 has made 462,95 mlrd roubles. Certainly, the exchange fever should be reflected in a state of affairs of share funds – for their expired MTH SCHA has decreased on 10,48 mlrd roubles.
it is possible, remembering experience of 2008, investors have started to deduce the means. But to take away money now – means to fix losses. Experts advise not to do it, and to wait, when passions will settle also the markets AGN will go upwards.
" Private investors usually operate W delay, – the analyst on macroeconomic and strategy " SPK; TKB the Capital " Sergey Karyhalin. – They come on the market when all has already grown and leave, when all has fallen ".
Group economist AFK " System " Evgenie Nadorshin is assured that while the prices for oil keep at enough high level, " there are no reasons to run from rouble or to close long positions ". As present fluctuations of the markets, according to the expert, in the big degree are caused by a panic which, will settle in due course.
Sergey Karyhalin advises, despite of pessimistic statements, fears and risks to the contrary to think of purchase of shares as actions of many companies have strongly fallen in price on a panic wave.
" Now the share market looks attractive not 4 an exit from it, and just 4 an input, – analyst UK " agrees; Alphas - the Capital " Dmitry Chernjadev. – If there is spare cash now the Gud MOM that - to enter on the market and in the long term – in half a year - year – to RCV the quite good income ".
the Main threat – falling of the prices for oil
at world stock exchanges directly mentions Decrease in quotations not only interests of private investors, but also economy of Russia CUZ it leads to falling of the prices for oil, group economist Deuts˝he Bank in Russia Yaroslav Lisovolik has told News. " While the prices for oil are rather high, the barrel of oil Brent costs 106 dollars but if they decrease the vicious circle can earn: depreciation of rouble which leads to stock market falling that provokes besides the further depreciation of rouble " – the expert has explained.
Depreciation of actions of the Russian companies can lead to revision of investment plans by them, Sergey Karyhalin adds.
In free falling
But B4 prospects still it is necessary to live. While the markets fall. " investors very much worry concerning possible recession and EVN depression in economy " – Evgenie Nadorshin SPK. Last days from different regions of the world negative economic news have come many, it has explained.
In particular, falling of quotations is connected with negative statistics from the USA. Inflation in the country in July remained at level of 3,6 % though its delay B4 3,3 % in annual calculation was expected. The number of demands on unemployment for the second week of August has increased on nine thousand, at the growth forecast only on five thousand demands. Sales in the secondary market of real estate in July have fallen to 3,5 % though under forecasts this indicator should grow on 2,7 %.
Besides, on Thursday in the market have started talking that insufficient reaction of the European authorities to debt crisis of an eurozone and reduction of trust of investors 2 region economy can urge ETSB to lower the interest rate from 1,5 % B4 1 % till the end of 2012. 2 the forecast of world gross national product for current year B4 3,9 % from 4,2 %, for 2012 &ndash has been reconsidered; B4 3,8 % from 4,5 %.
There is a danger of recession
Uncertainty has strongly increased, Evgenie Nadorshin SPK. " Delay of world economy it already the fact, but is threat that growth will be replaced at least by recession in many developed countries, – it has explained. – thus participants of the market understand that 4 scale measures of stimulation which have been undertaken by regulators 4 market maintenance in 2008 - 2009, already there are no resources ".
the Further deterioration of a situation can lead to development of instability from level of the separate countries 2 the largest western banks, Yaroslav Lisovolik has told News.
" It can seriously aggravate crisis, – he SPK. – and now such threat – one of key factors which lead to landslide falling of quotations in the markets ".
However, Sergey Karyhalin, recognising danger of recession, believes that falling of quotations – It only correction of not come true expectations of investors concerning rates of economic growth in the USA. " now investors QIK reconsider the optimistical expectations that has led to falling of the prices for actions and 2 flight in protective actives – gold, state bonds " – Sergey Karyhalin has explained News. The analyst has underlined that " the corrections similar on present, happen almost every year, and then all calm down, the markets are restored ".
Stabilization in stock markets could contribute, for example, actions of regulators – the central banks of the leading countries, SPK Lisovolik.
" They could bring down a bearish wave in the financial markets through increase in liquidity or promulgation of measures on stimulation of economy and recession overcoming, – he lists possible steps of the Central Bank. – But while such sensation that regulators still hope that the situation itself is stabilised also by it it is not necessary to pay in higher inflation for possibility of maintenance of rates of economic growth ".