Kajrat Kelimbetov: the HARDWARE and EEP is created by new possibilities 4 cooperation
- Much now disputes in this respect. Before we SPK that that crisis which was in 2008 - 2009, gradually comes to an end. It is now sounded much apokalipsicheskih scenarios of development of world economic system. But I think that the most difficult 4 people who plan development of economy and on a broader scale 4 experts in this sphere, is a status of uncertainty. And I would not want to SPK that will be worse, but also I can not precisely tell that it will be better. Too many the unfavourable facts. Growth of gross national product of the USA was reduced more than to 1 %. Experts predict decrease in rates of increase and the Chinese economy. That occurs in the Eurozone, and it is not necessary to SPK. One for other European Union countries: Greece, Portugal, Italy – appear in a crisis situation.
All will depend on what measures will undertake the governments of leading world powers. We know that the decision to consolidate economic efforts at a MTG of heads of France and Germany is accepted, but the situation as a whole does not foretell an optimistical outcome. 2DAY we are in a turbulence zone, that is in an uncertainty zone. Now it is necessary " to fasten belts " and, accordingly, to prepare for more hard times.
That it will mean 4 Russia and Kazakhstan? The new wave of crisis or as mark a number of experts, a certain long recession as that in which last 20 years there is Japan is possible. Export to absolute volumes as consumption of ours of oil will be reduced, gas, uranium will be reduced that, accordingly, can lead to reduction of incomes of the state and falling of growth of gross national product.
- In what degree economic integration on the post-Soviet territory - creation of the Customs union, Uniform economic space - can contribute in overcoming of the crisis processes shaking 2DAY world economy?
- When 20 years ago Soviet Union did not become, on the world map there were the new independent states which have selected different ways of building of national economic systems. National political elite tested some kind of euphoria from an appropriation of independence and aspired to tear old economic relations definitively. All of us have dispersed every which way. Accordingly, 2DAY is absolutely other structure of mutual relations and other bilateral agreements.
Now, in 20 years, the sober understanding comes that the most predicted mutual relations can be only at neighbours. Kazahstansko - the Russian border makes seven thousand kilometres. It is the greatest overland border in the world. Already it is enough of one it to build relations between our countries on a confidential basis, at level of strategic partnership. Our cooperation – an important condition of overcoming of modern calls and threats. You know that within the limits of the Euroasian economic community the Anti-recessionary fund is created, the basic which share of an authorised capital stock was brought by Russia and Kazakhstan. We have created the Euroasian bank of development participation in which accept not only Russia and Kazakhstan. Many countries become members of this structure, for example, Ukraine considers similar plans.
We as a whole have analysed trading mutual relations of the Post-Soviet states. For 2010 - 2011 the trade turnover of Kazakhstan W Russia and Belarus has increased as a whole by 50 %. It means that in business ours businessmen start to be guided not by the third countries, and on the next states. I think that this circumstance bears that in our strategic plans for 5, 10, 20 years of mutual relation in the Customs union huge possibilities create.
ABT what possibilities there is a speech? In - the first, the shadow turn on borders is reduced. In - the second, not tariff restrictions disappear. 4 Kazakhstan it opens the market. If earlier we had only own market – 16 million citizens, is now the market has increased B4 168 million persons. 4 Russia it is an increase on 20 %, and also opening of the markets of other states, that is it is already possible to plan deliveries of production not only to Belarus and Kazakhstan, but also to the Central Asia or to China. It creates new possibilities 4 cooperation. Than we will be better to work in common, results will be especially effective.
- Now there is a movement from the Customs union 2 Uniform economic space. Leah processes which now occur in world economy, on rates and quality of this process will affect?
- There is a schedule of creation EEP, and it unprecedented. Actually for 1,5 years numerous agreements which are radical enough in relation to the previous economic and trading modes have been signed, ratified and introduced. Thanks to a political will of presidents, premieres - ministers, the governments, parliaments of our countries huge WRK has been done. The uniform economic space assumes the co-ordinated macroeconomic policy. But it looks simply only in words, in practice all is much more difficult.
That such the co-ordinated macroeconomic policy? For example, the budgeted deficit should not be more than established figures. Y it is important? CUZ it influences the general situation. If now in Belarus there will be no accurate schedule of overcoming of crisis, the clear policy ABT what to SPK. ABT what co-ordinated policy there can be a speech?
it is clear that anybody in a misfortune will not throw anybody. But thus there should be a mutual responsibility. In this case, if also the new states want to join our association should be defined " a face - control ". It is necessary to understand, W whom we are integrated, and a leah corresponds this state to all requirements of association. For example, to corresponding macroeconomic policy, or conditions of a customs tariff policy.
EEP – this closer integration cooperation providing free movement of services, labour and the capital. And more tight integration provides also the big responsibility.
- In December 20 years of the Kazakhstan independence are executed. Tell, PLS, ABT proryvnyh the directions which have allowed Kazakhstan to create one of the most dynamical economy in the CIS.
- If to SPK about 20 years, the main achievement of Kazakhstan – these are those socially - economic reforms which have allowed our country to pass from former way of economy 2 new, that is from planned socialist economy - 2 economy of market type. Here we proceeded, first of all, from this that it is necessary to find the best world experts, to study them, and then to adapt these experts for national Kazakhstan realities.
Such basic reforms as scale privatisation, reforms in bank sector, pension reform, have allowed to create market space which as a whole provided to Kazakhstan success. But till 1998 basically there was an overcoming of negative consequences of disintegration of Soviet Union, and in 1997 – 1998 the stage-by-stage overcoming the crisis has begun.
Further the Kazakhstan economy has reached impressing rates of increase. W 2000 for 2007 the annual gain of gross national product in Kazakhstan made 9 - 10 %. Put in 2000 the president of Kazakhstan the problem on doubling of gross national product till 2010 has been executed ahead of schedule, in 2008. At us 2DAY gross national product per capita makes 10 thousand dollars. Such impressive figure allows Kazakhstan to apply for membership in club of the developed states, to become a member of the Organization of economic cooperation. In our today`s summons it is necessary to increase a problem gross national product B4 15 thousand dollars per capita.
the President of Kazakhstan the first has introduced strategic planning among the CIS countries. You remember that in 1997 long-term strategy till 2030 has been intoned. ANY1 10 years at us are accepted corresponding plans. These plans then share on government programs. The budget is focused on result of realisation of these government programs.
If to SPK about an economic crisis it is, of course, primary 4 the countries rich with natural resources – such as Kazakhstan, Russia – always there is a threat connected W so-called " a raw damnation ". That is, on the one hand it is, of course, Gud that you have oil and gas, like as you should not worry that the prices high on these goods, and to the contrary, should rejoice. OTOH, it destimuliruet not oil sektory economy, and is very difficult to spend diversification programs.
Leaning against the advanced world experience, we have generated in advance effective anti-recessionary mechanisms. 2DAY in the reserve fund of Kazakhstan created in the beginning 2000 - h years by an example of Norway, it is concentrated 38 billion dollars. It is ours " a security pillow " for rainy day. Moreover, we have created development funds – first of all, Fund of national welfare " Samruk - Kazyna " which has united all state economic actives.
the Major principle by which the Kazakhstan economic block is guided: we should live so as if oil at us is not present, therefore the budget is planned W/ O incomes of oil. Taxes from oil arrive in National fund and there are stored. It gives the chance to concentrate on creation of new sectors of economy.
So if to SPK about the formula of success of Kazakhstan for years of independence, it, first of all, political will, lidersky the factor of president Noursultan Nazarbayev, strategic planning, application of the best world an expert at formation and realisation of strategy of reforms.