Crisis - 2012: of that it is necessary to be afraid?
the barrel Price in crisis, or the Main point of an oil butt " Russia "
Irina Yasin (And. JA): When yesterday in the morning I set to the friends in ZHZH a question: a leah they are afraid of crisis, resignation of Minister of Finance Kudrin yet was not. And I impudently responded something fervent. And W resignation long-term and, appear, the permanent Minister of Finance to me it became disturbing. We will SPK about crisis W my visitors – Xenia Sokolovoj, the assistant to the editor-in-chief of magazine GQ, and Nikolay Sobolevym, the president " Interprogressbanka ". At first I will be converted, Kohl, 2 you. A leah is real occasions to trouble? A leah threatens us terrible crisis in a situation, when in the world restlessly?
Nikolay Sobolev (N. S) : The occasion to trouble is always. As you understand, the fundamental reasons were saved W 2008 - go year and, maybe, EVN earlier. Recently economy have simply filled in with money, at us it is petrodollars, in the West it is cheap, almost free credits, in this connection, as a matter of fact, all tlichaetsja from a bubble 2008 - go year. It was aggravated solvency of the European countries all by problems fundamental in Greece, Spain, Italy now.
And. JA: Than it threatens?
N. S: As to the country to us it threatens only to one: a question of cost of oil as we as the country sit on the big oil butt, and the only thing that defines solvency us in the international market and internal solvency partly – it is cost of barrel of oil, unfortunately.
And. JA: Now 106 - Brent.
N. S: yes, 105 - 106. It is very Gud, CUZ, AAM, if to wind off BWD history and, say, to take crisis 2008 - go year, was considered that the price 70 - 80 dollars for barrel is Gud and the Russian budget balances.
And. JA: I when worked in the Central bank, was 8.
N. S: I do not take a retrospective show on 15 years ago. A problem that for these two years has been much given out obligations or advance payments.
And. JA: That is, already and 100 it is not enough.
N. S: Well, I where - that read calculations that 119 the Russian budget balances, therefore for these two years at us much that has occurred.
And. JA: IOW, if the price for oil above 119 - we in chocolate, if more low 119 – problems begin. And here, possibly, we will remember Alexey Kudrin a kind word …
the Main house-keeper has left, W what there was an economy?
N. S: In any sense, yes CUZ Kudrin`s basic idea was not to spend not earned money. In this sense it was the house-keeper. In the Gud house there should be a housekeeper, which watches an economy not to spend more than you has prepared – fruit liqueurs to give, products from granaries.
And. JA: And not to borrow, if you can not give.
plaid about, she was indulged by the world market, oil, it, fortunately or unfortunately (it is a POV question), is the Gud exchange goods and means and gamble and investments and consequently demand for it is defined not only industrial activity, but also speculative activity. Oil, along with all other goods exchange which can be sold EZ and EZ to buy, she participates in these speculative operations.
And. JA: All - taki to be afraid?
N. S: Yes, to be afraid, we will tell so. Here a situation what. Besides, all of us we have experience of last of two - three years, we can wind off BWD and look, as this crisis has affected us. It is clear that at someone - actives here and there, speculating with grain, actions IBM and more something, but a problem big CUZ question - to save these actives acquired by back-breaking toil. If the person simply works (I do not want to look …) In Uryupinsk the teacher, to it this world crisis that it is that is not present. In the TV – crisis, and at it other problems and problems.
And. JA: Nevertheless, if expenses naroshcheny in the state budget, and then on this all are not present money as can occur to falling of the prices for oil then also to the teacher in Uryupinsk it can be not EZ …
N. S: the Question what here to cut, on what state programs the hand will rise, first of all. We will not build Moscow up to Kaluga, we will not re-equip the Russian army not clearly than on 20 trillion.
And. JA: I have a LUVed action – summit ATES on island Russian. It shakes me simply.
what to do - to leave or change a matrix?
And. JA: And what to do to us, such productive class, people which create values matelnye and spiritual? More and more people SPK: it is time to leave, it is time to bring down. The day before yesterday, yesterday, when there were these horror stories at first about castling Medvedev - Putin, then Kudrin has left, were going to bring down all. What thy opinion what to do to people, Ksjush?
Xenia Sokolova (2. S) : In - the first, I want tell that from those who unboundedly tells that wants to bring down, I am assured that 90 % of people simply have no such possibility. CUZ to bring down – this serious enough, a critical decision, main: it is necessary to have resources to bring down. We fine know W you that is simple so will not fall down. It, in - the first. And, in - the second, voobshchem - that, I not so understand such fear before Kudrin`s dismissal or EVN Medvedev`s change with Putin. All of us have grown and we live in the country, which periods of contemporary history – these are continuous wars any, crises, conflicts, still something, that is, at us the resistance to stress should be the highest.
And. JA: As at those cockroaches.
Kalashnikov and Kaspersky: made in Russia
And. JA: I know that you have started the interesting project which is called Made in Russia which should show that Russia creates till now something, if can show, of course, something significant creates 4 the world market, 4 the world CUZ we know 4 ourselves that at all of us in the past. Any you had people whom it is possible to present as the Russian property today`s, not Stalin times and even not Brezhnev`s?
2. S: Such people are. In particular, in magazine GQ now there is an interview to Evgenie Kaspersky. One of the American newspapers about it has written that symbols Russia – he is Kalashnikov and Kaspersky for today. And it is valid, he/she is the person who has very much a great influence and popularity. There are directors. There are people who try to make something, as Kohl fomenko which untwists the project " marusja ".
And. JA: And so that to make still something, to think out?
2. S: Well here we also want to collect such people who think out something here in spite of that occurs. CUZ it is very bad that the official, the manager " became a role model of success last years the dealer oil; Gazprom ".
and. JA: And the woman who has successfully married.
2. S: And the woman successfully for this all mentioned married. Here, actually, both all. And we as - that try to confront with this business. We will look that will turn out.
And. JA: Kohl, tell, and here the enterprise class as looks at prospect? He is afraid as a class, not as concrete people?
N. S: it is difficult to tell. I agree that we have got used to live in difficult conditions and more likely EVN to survive, than to count on long prospect. From the point of view of Wednesday, basically, anything especially does not change. Environment as was last five years, you see, that it is castling … Perhaps, there were any hopes, and, generated at us in heads, instead of in real life.
And. JA: No, it is simply opposite how it has occurred.
N. S: Yes, but I will repeat, it is the form, instead of the maintenance, AAM, if to ponder, from the point of view of the maintenance, has exchanged nothing. And we discussed one year ago a question of a policy, formation of this policy with you, well, it both was not, and is not present. There are slogans any, and any substantial improvements of an enterprise climate, an investment climate. " we want the financial CTR in Moscow ". From what perepuga in Moscow there will be a financial CTR international? Not IC.
And. JA: Nothing foretells, it is truth.
oetomu for a class I will not respond, but here the answer hardly - hardly is close to the previous question. A question in children. That is, it is clear that those who now here work, they will work and will earn here money CUZ the majority of us not so are able and are claimed 2 earning money in the West. It is a separate song. On the whole we are not able, we will not be built in there, especially, in crisis. At us the civilisation. People who earn here, they earn money, but all my acquaintances IAE, and I think that the majority of your acquaintances, are aimed at, that children at least had possibility to continue education in the West if not to RCV its base in the West who has such possibility. That socially active layer. And me - that disturbs not that, on polls of Levada - the CTR, 50 % of the population do not want – it is clear that do not want, not comfortably, more comfortably there, but here it is not necessary to confuse tourism and migration, as in that old joke.
And. JA: But therefore 6 % also leave.
2 a question on the tax to luxury. " in Russia two Versailles – at BRO Rottenbergov "
2. S: I interviewed the president of Georgia, and actually, one of Saakashvili`s first phrases was just about it that look at your country: all officials take out the children, really it seems to you that your officials want something Gud 4 your country if they take out children. And it, of course, absolute truth, and we it C that all of them sit on low start and if any performances like a Manezhnaya Square here begin, developing in stirrings similar Libyan, of course, they first of all here will not be. And so it is all, of course, abomination zhlobstvo. It looks in the awful image and, probably, it would be necessary to pass such law if there was a sane government, that it is impossible so to do but as we live as I have already told, in the conditions of chaos officials about own children and about themselves that they cannot leave, and children cannot study there, they will not accept, of course.
And. JA: And as " a control shot " remains for " an United Russia " it is clear that will change nothing.
N. S: Half a year could not pass the law on increase of taxes to cars W great volume of the engine BWD.
2. S: No, sacred will not give never.
N. S: That is that about it to SPK, if such method …
And. JA: Putin promised at congress " an United Russia " That here - unpopular measures here will begin taxes on rich, in particular, will be raised that, probably is, of course, correct, CUZ the tax to real estate, to property CUZ it is collected taxes should be increased and it is absolutely not necessary to collect them on manufacture. They should be collected in consumption sphere. How you think, it will occur?
N. S: Certainly, I think: any motions will be. But the tax to real estate – a question difficult, CUZ at us the tax real estate mixed. For example, " stalinka " on Kutuzovsky.
And. JA: There estimation BTI should be. Such field 4 corruption.
N. S: Certainly, there different people live in these apartments. And old Moscow pensioners, and new officials. Here it is necessary, certainly, to it accurately to approach, but the tax to luxury, certainly, should be. A question that is considered luxury. It simply enough to understand.
And. JA: Yachts, planes.
N. S: Yes, there should be any norms of the consumption which has been not socially adapted: two pairs trousers for a year, and any more normal. It is clear that the big private residence situated near Moscow, probably, is luxury, and a small summer residence situated near Moscow – it is a summer residence.
And. JA: Oh, I am afraid of these officials who will spend a watershed.
2. S: In this connection I have remembered the story of the M8 which which - that Rottenbergov, and so, at them did 4 BRO two versalja opposite each other. The BRO two, and versalja two on Ilinsky HWY. Here, probably, they will make a watershed between one and another and will pay the tax to the rich.
N. S: the Exactly same history. If it is impossible on the engine in five litres to impose the tax on the house in one and a half thousand square metres I very much doubt that it will appear, more - less real. And then, it is not necessary to 4get that at us all officials beggars, except for two - three representatives who declare the income. All the rest is hidden.
2. S: At Ramzana Kadyrov though which - that is. And that is a little.
And. JA: you C, you interviewed it.
2. S: I C. Yes, there affairs not bad are. Where - that at it zoos EVN are.
And. JA: makes impression?
2. S: Not that word. The party member " an United Russia " AGN - taki.
N. S: It is a system thing, coming back 2 a question. A leah C somebody the future of Russia as the countries competitive?
2. S: I C. Zimbabwe. If not Sudan.
And. JA: Well cease.
2. S: No if it is all will not exchange, all is equal and will be, CUZ Russia absolutely unique, in this sense, not African country where it was possible to divide completely the power which uses oil incomes and something shows on the TV, and the population which absolutely exists in itself and in any way is not necessary for this power, and, such system is created that the more this population will die out, the it is more and more favourable this power, CUZ the population useful to the power does not make anything.
And. JA: Oh, yes it is fine.
2. S: Seriously, so.
and. JA: That is, at us a segregation such, but only not white and black, and the power and a society.
N. S: the known factor of Dzhinni &hellip is not ready to agree completely, but, basically, two;
And. JA: do not agree better, prove only the disagreement.
stvujushchej the power in the form of party " an United Russia " And all the rest cannot struggle in any way, or it should devote all unfortunate life. Therefore we have decided to do something as though in this system, completely having separated, actually, both from the power, and that it does, and from its sights, and simply to work W those people who are really left as these conditionally " black " which as - that there live also this power, voobshchem, are a little interesting, we will be realists. And AAM, it is live normal people, and they want something, something do simply so much obstacles in their way that it it is very difficult, therefore they should try simply as - that to help, consolidate. I think that an exit exists two. Wherefore in this weight of the population, really, protest moods which will pour out in something very serious CUZ such quantity of decay can be overcome only explosion and blood in case of performance, or, really will be saved, something to try to make the positive.
And. JA: But then it very long.
2. S: It long, but alternative one. That is, actually alternatives three. Russia – the country W very big historical inertia. That is, will long decay. On our century will suffice. One way. The second way – explosion. And the third way – to be consolidated to those people who do not leave from here, on any unknown science to the reason, and try to make something here. Here, actually, I so inizhu a situation.
Reserves are settled. What further?
And. JA: a leah Economy can accelerate explosion, a leah of change?
N. S: conditions should be for this purpose created. And if conditions not to create, of course, will occur nothing.
And. JA: Economy, having fallen off, can create conditions 4 negative scenarios?
N. S: there Can be all.
And. JA: You C prospect real for this purpose? I do not C.
I CUZ old technologies already we not in a status to develop, reserves Soviet are settled, settled personnel reserves, now qualified workers – it is the big problem, and 2MORO there will be a big problem – the qualified engineers. In this sense we come to an end Soviet … Here, they are settled – personnel, human, infrastructural …
And. JA: We W you as the RCVed diplomas at a socialism.
N. S: Soon and we will end. And further already a question, what conditions to create 4 growth, and on a broader scale who is interested in this growth.
And. JA: World crisis can accept any catastrophic scales?
N. S: Theoretically can. Practically I in it not so believe, CUZ it, really, a collapse only. In this sense there is powerful China and quite powerful Japan. Any consolidation which is all should be reached will rescue, CUZ will fill up all.
And. JA: But you in it do not believe?
N. S: Yes, in the worst scenario I do not believe.
2. S: But war will write off all.
And. JA: ME2 I am not afraid, AAM. Also I think that this is perfect superfluous, prevents to do to us something. And new we have not learnt anything, when Medvedev have changed for Putin, and Putin - on Medvedev, and Minister of Finance Kudrin too supposed financing " Autovase " in wild quantities, and increase of taxes that public health services pseudo-reform to spend – too not the most sacred, therefore time will tell.