New privatisation: a step forward or two BWD?
Yesterday the government has countenanced the plan of privatisation for 2010 in volume in 72 mlrd roubles. On the auctions state blocks of shares of 450 not strategic joint-stock companies and 28 large strategic companies on which special decisions will be made will be exposed.
Starting new scale privatisation, the authorities hope to solve some important problems: at least partially zaplatat a hole in the federal budget to relieve the state of superfluous actives and to stimulate structural changes in domestic economy. However independent experts are afraid that present privatisation can become repetition of a bitter experience 90 - h.
now very few people doubts that privatisation 90 - h has brought years to domestic economy of more harm, than advantage. In economic circles EVN there was a new term - « deindustlizatsija » - So characterise the processes occurring in our country in last decade of last century.
Unfortunately, much in the present Russian validity forces experts to be afraid that the state is going to attack an old rake. We will begin with the conditions which have pushed of the power 2 carrying out of new privatisation. The director of department of the strategic analysis of company FBK Igor Nikolays reminds that the Kremlin was decided on this step not from Gud life: in the budget the hole in 3 trln roubles (its occurrence - result of the overestimated social obligations and unfairly high expenses on financial system maintenance) gapes, and officials hope that incomes of state property sales will help to patch it. But on a court yard an economic crisis, therefore to count on high incomes of sales of state blocks of shares it would be precipitate. An analyst of bank « the Trust » Vladimir Bragin too considers that incomes of privatisation - 2010 will appear less than 72 mlrd rbl. On which counts the government. « almost all companies exposed on sale are not strategic, - explains g - n Bragin. - the auctions laying ahead in this year - are faster a feeler, the state wants to estimate possibilities of the private capital, its activity, readiness to invest in economy ».
Exhibiting to sale of minor actives does more likely declarative, is rather than real vypolnimoj one more problem of privatisation - reduction of a role of the state in economy. Such pressing forward could be greeted only. In - the first, state property experience has appeared not too successful, and as world practice shows, W problems of upgrade of manufacture and economy as a whole the private capital consults better - let frequently it and operates under steadfast supervision and with active support of the state. Seriously to affect a vector of economic development transfer to private hands of key state actives, but as it is already noted is capable only, by the plan of privatisation for 2010 of it is not provided.
Most of all experts are stirred with other question: a leah will be possible to the Kremlin to carry out fair privatisation this time? According to the international ratings, the Russian Federation is included into number of the most corrupted states, the problem of the highest corruption of state officials admits also the Russian management. This fact also suggests ABT inopportuneness of new scale privatisation. However, the vice-president « Rosimushchestva » Edward Adashkin assures that technologies of forthcoming auctions will reduce 2 a minimum possibility of arrangements mezhu participants of the auctions. To open all secrets the official does not hurry. It is known only that the mechanism so-called « will be involved; the Dutch auctions » When the auctions go at first W price fall and after one of participants of auction will declare readiness to buy an active, the auctioneer starts poshagovo to raise the price. Other innovation become on - line the auctions, at first in a video conference format, and in the long term and directly electronic auctions (the last, according to world practice, really help to avoid arrangements).
However as the analyst « marks; the Trust » not to admit sales of state actives at cut prices a problem important but where is more important not for how much the new proprietor will get a state block of shares, and how he will dispose of the RCVed active. If the enterprise also has been bought at cut price, but to it there are investments, technological reequipment is carried out, new workplaces the positive result of privatisation is available are created.
But what will force the proprietor to arrive thus? After all the law in force ABT privatisation does not provide obligations on attraction of investments and preservation of a profile of manufacture. In addition, according to Igor Nikolaeva from FBK, the state and did not recognise ushcherbnost speculative model of economy, in these conditions forthcoming privatisation will be interesting, first of all, it is not necessary to speculators so - to count on ward on - to the present of effective proprietors and strategic investors.
Or all - taki costs? After all, according to the head of Ministry of economic development and trade of Elvira Nabiullina, its department just also is engaged in technology creation on cutting off from participation of speculators in the forthcoming auctions. The MAYOR plans to prepare amendments to the legislation providing an establishment of requirements for the new proprietor, including concerning investments into bought actives and their re-structuring. But guards that fact that ABT terms of acceptance of these amendments while it is not known, and the plan of privatisation for 2010 is already countenanced.