Contract SNV - 1 has ended: what for us W8 ahead?
on December, 5th, 2009 stops to operate one of base agreements in control sphere over arms: the Contract on reduction and restriction of strategic offensive arms (SNV - 1). This carefully developed agreement including a wide spectrum of measures of mutual control, has been signed even before disintegration of Soviet Union, but has come into force only in December, 1994. According to contract SNV - 1 Moscow and Washington were obliged within seven years to reduce the nuclear arsenals B4 6 tys boezarjadov. The Memorandum of the arrangement, defined offset rules boezarjadov 4 ANY1 type of intercontinental ballistic missiles (MBR), ballistic missiles of submarines (BRPL) and heavy (strategic) bombers became an agreement Component.
It is impossible to tell that Contract SNV - 1 had the balanced character. For example, BRPL, across which USA had a clear advantage, got under moderate restrictions and control measures. Rigid restrictions 4 mobile rocket complexes of strategic purpose (RK SN) were simultaneously entered. And it was not casual as Washington began to rely more and more on sea to a component of strategic nuclear forces (SJAS), completely having refused expansion of mobile RK SN in the autumn of 1991. But Moscow had such complexes of soil and railway types of the basing which use began to be limited on number placed boezarjadov, to size of areas of basing and conditions of a finding out of these areas. 4 mobile RK SN more strict have been provided, than 4 mine rockets, liquidation procedure.
it is necessary to notice that on the basis of the Lisbon report 2 Contract SNV - 1 from May, 1992 the number of participants of the agreement has been expanded at the expense of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Later all these states declared the denuclearized status that has led to recycling of many of land RK SN earlier placed there, and also a quantity of strategic bombers. Moreover, places of working out and manufacture of heavy missiles have appeared out of the Russian territory.
In January, 1993 between the Russian Federation and the USA the Contract on the further reduction and restriction of strategic offensive arms (SNV - 2) has been signed. This contract appreciably leant against procedures and the positions co-ordinated at the conclusion of Contract SNV - 1, establishing actually only new quantitative restrictions (B4 3 - 3,5 tys boezarjadov by January, 1st, 2003) and some new procedures. In particular, Moscow and Washington have agreed to liquidate all heavy missiles and RK SN of land basing equipped with divided head parts of individual prompting. However both parties tried to save, how much it was possible, quantity of strategic carriers, therefore have decided to unload (to remove a quantity of warheads) MBR and BRPL W/ O replacement of platforms of head parts. As a result there was a possibility in enough deadlines sharply to increase quantity developed on strategic carriers nuclear boezarjadov, that is has arisen « returnable potential ».
Contract SNV - 2 has been ratified by the Congress of the USA in January, 1996, but in Russia process of its ratification was tightened till April, 2000. Absence of sufficient financial assets in the federal budget of the Russian Federation became the formal reason for this purpose. The true reasons have been caused by process of deterioration Russian - the American relations against armed intervention of the countries of the NATO in events on Balkan peninsula. Unfortunately, in June, 2002 of the USA left the Contract on restriction of systems of antimissile defence (1972) that has not allowed Contract SNV - 2 to come into force. Nevertheless both parties carried out those positions of this contract which corresponded to their national interests. In particular, Russia has ceased to destroy the heavy missiles and to convert MBR under monoblock head parts.uot; reduction of armaments-] "/>
MTH earlier in Moscow the frame Contract on reduction of strategic offensive potentials (SNP) has been signed. As a matter of fact, it only fixes earlier made presidents of the Russian Federation and the USA unilateral statements. In this agreement key terms and definitions, offset rules boezarjadov, and also concrete procedures of liquidation of reduced arms and verification of this process are not stipulated. The only thing B4 what it was possible to agree is to define minimum levels operatively - developed nuclear boezarjadov on strategic carriers (1700 - 2200). According to the Contract, reduction boezarjadov should be carried out till the end of 2012 And, national SJAS ANY1 party defines sequence of process of nuclear disarmament, structure and structure independently. All it did not create problems in validity SNV - 1, but can create now if the new agreement in sphere of reduction of strategic offensive arms (SNV) is not signed.
all aforesaid convinces that last twenty years one base agreement - Contract SNV - 1 operated only. All other arrangements in sphere of nuclear disarmament in full or in part were based on this Contract which became the culmination long-term and very difficult Russian - the American negotiations on reduction SNV.
This process has appeared almost curtailed in the middle of 1990 - h years and is renewed only in 2009. In this time professional shots necessary for negotiations that became one of the most serious obstacles of negotiating process have been substantially lost. Besides, Russia all became more difficult to save the nuclear potential against absence of similar problems at the USA. As a result Washington began to lose interest to mutual reduction of nuclear arms. All it, and also a rigid limit of time, have created the extremely adverse conditions 4 preparation of the new contract on SNV. It would Seem that anything new, except the updated version of Contract SNP (2002) it is impossible to make. Nevertheless, break in sphere of reduction of such arms has been reached.
In July, 2009 presidents of the Russian Federation and the USA have agreed about the conclusion in the near future the new legally obliging arrangement on replacement of operating Contract SNV - 1. Levels 4 strategic carriers (500 - 1100) and established on them nuclear boezarjadov (1500 - 1675) have been thus defined. Then it was not possible to agree about essential decrease in quantity of carriers, offset rules boezarjadov, and also use of strategic carriers in usual equipment. But mutual interest to process of nuclear disarmament has already been shown.
Further process of negotiations went roughly enough. Nevertheless, according to some information, it was possible to lower considerably top level 4 strategic carriers (B4 700) and to include in their structure carriers W usual equipment. In this case the maximum quantity of strategic carriers W nuclear boezarjadami decreases B4 600 that SPK about considerable rapprochement of trunk-call positions. In the answer the Russian side has agreed to consider only actual quantity boezarjadov, established on carriers that allows to carry out their further unloading (to remove additional quantity of warheads). Besides it, Moscow has agreed to limit areas of basing of mobile RK SN (« the Poplar » and « the Poplar - M ») .
If this information to be CFMed, most complicated questions of reduction of strategic offensive arms are already overcome. After that it will be much more EZ to agree about saved system of mutual checks and inspections.
There is a natural question on possible terms of signing of the new contract. Basically such document can be signed in December of current year, for example, in one of the European capitals. Certainly, it yet will not be the full-scale agreement as 4 its working out simply there was no time. But it can be added by corresponding reports and memorandums in the near future.
Thus, the situation developing at negotiations inspires certain optimism. On - visible, they have entered solving stage when the exit on signing of the new contract already became quite possible in the near future. Fortunately, forecasts of pessimists concerning impossibility of the conclusion between the Russian Federation and the USA the high-grade legally obliging contract in sphere of reduction of strategic offensive arms do not come true, and we are threatened hardly with legal vacuum after the termination of period of validity of Contract SNV - 1.