Census - 2010: demographic " improvisations "
the All-Russia population census - 2010 is almost finished: it is necessary to capture up to the end only remote regions – for example, the north of the Tyumen region. Its definitive results will be declared in April. However it is possible to SPK about its unconditional pluses and obvious problems now already.
that census is spent, - already doubtless victory. And Rosstat which have spent it has entered in perepisnye sheets new important questions. For example, it was possible to expand a question on a place of WRK of the person: a leah works it in a native city or goes on earnings, for example, to a city - millionnik. It in any degree provides guidance on « pendular migration ». Till now after all anybody names exact cannot the day population of a city of Moscow, the leading research assistant of Institute of demography GU - VSHE Nikita Mkrtchjan marks. The day population – They are permanent residents of a city plus people coming to capital since morning for WRK or study.
Certainly, census will not give an exact picture of movings of people and will not allow to count up time spent by them on such trips. Nevertheless, it is necessary to hope that some picture « pendular migration » nevertheless will appear. And in this question, Nikita Mkrtchjan marks, Rosstat while has made everything that on it depends.
Guest workers – time labour migrants - while have counted 285 thousand that obviously does not represent the facts. Those who has opened doors to copyists have got to this figure only and it has appeared is ready to answer questions. However not all « natives » on a broader scale knew about census (mass-media « slightly » have underfulfilled in a case W social advertising of this campaign) and what to SPK about migrants … Illegal migration has not been captured almost. Such guest workers frequently live in building carriages and cellars, in hostels on « the bird`s rights » where the foot of the copyist, as they say, did not go. Such dwellings simply do not appear in lists.
BTW, at doperepisnoj to a spadework – to updating of address economy, i.e. houses to which direct copyists, new buildings &ndash were involuntarily ignored also; simply because they yet do not appear in any lists. Here also it turns out that tenants of the house in 120 apartments, already on third occupied, in perepisnye sheets do not get at all … According to VTSIOM, the share of those who has not been considered perepisnoj by campaign, in comparison with 2002 has increased more than twice – W 5 B4 11 percent.
Thus the militant opposition of census was not, general director VTSIOM Valery Fedorov marks. « but there was, certainly, a scepticism that will make all badly ».
There are many cases, when the population « guesses ». Obviously, under persevering recommendations of justices, at which reasons: the more the population we will count, the we will RCV social dividends in the form of kindergartens and polyclinics more. And imaginations have mentioned EVN « qualitative characteristics » (a nationality, education and pr), Nikita Mkrtchjan marks. Business reaches the ridiculous: in apartments where, under the CKed data, lonely pensioners live, AOTS appear numerous « second lieutenants of Kizhe ».
students - the sociologists who have spent census in Northern Tushino, have told ABT « thrown » subscription lists W obvious demographic improvisations. So, in these sheets families from 8 - 9 persons appeared (!!!) And owning foreign languages and having Gud education. It is more similar not to a family, and on a commune. Or on a hostel.
And in big cities (in Moscow and in cities - millionnikah), and ESP in republics of the North Caucasus there is a danger that the real population will be overestimated, Nikita Mkrtchjan considers. As head Rosstata Alexander Surinov has noted, local authorities practically everywhere tried to exaggerate the demographic importance of the territories in every possible way. We will repeat - financing of social programs, social transfers, payments on children and unemployment benefits directly depend on demographic indicators, and it is ESP important 4 depressive regions, W insufficient budgetary security. However here - that the hitch just also is covered.
we Take, for example, mortality rate coefficient. In its numerator – number of death, in a denominator – Population. If population to overestimate, also the mortality rate coefficient falls at once. And the region appears safe, W/ O any objective reasons on that. But at such frauds W figures birth rate is catastrophically underestimated. In numerator of factor of birth rate – number of births, in a denominator – all the same population.
Following the results of last census in 2002 it has turned out that birth rate factor in Kabardino - Balkarii – approximately 1,8, that is approximately as in the Irkutsk region! And in Dagestan the birth rate factor left more low 2 - h! And it at all relative (in comparison with other regions) a possession of many children of North Caucasian republics.
the Majority of Russians, cites data VTSIOM, do not doubt that results of census authentically reflect a situation in the country (58 %). And, by and large, anybody aggressively does not convict copyists, EVN when those have obviously faked. Blogery tell, how copyists simply copied records from house registers. And one copyist has managed three times to copy the same person, having 4gotten to bypass the next apartments …
As Valery Fedorov, copyists &ndash marks; and it were, basically, students – not too motivirovany. « Money is paid to copyists not so big, ESP 4 cities, and WRK heavy enough. CUZ to the AVG copyist it is necessary to interrogate some thousand persons for 10 days, and it will RCV for it of 5 thousand roubles minus taxes and a cost of transportation ».
the Problem perepisnogo the personnel is obvious, Nikita Mkrtchjan continues a subject. « Very few people goes in copyists of the own free will. Frequently heads perepisnyh points – People who have come from labour exchange who at times are lazy to read instructions. EVN copyists at times are much more diligent than the direct heads ».
On the very first, preliminary results of census - 2010, the country population makes 141,2 million persons. However here people who are on long business trips abroad, and spetskontingent &ndash are not considered; for example, prisoners. As a result more 144 million it can be typed, Nikita Mkrtchjan considers. Plus illegal migrants, which present census, as well as previous, « has not C ». « Meanwhile, while nobody cancelled depopulation ». So the figure, whatever one may do, turns out partly speculative.