The editor-in-chief “ the Moscow news “ Vitaly Tretjakov: Lukashenko will concede to us under peal of bells
“ Gas war “ between Russia and Belarus to me reminds a bad dream in a madhouse. Two Union States, fine co-operating, for example, in military area, cannot agree though and on important, but to very specific question.
And with all other CIS countries Russia has managed to carry out rigid gas to the policy. There was one Belarus which, apparently, should is best understand - stability of the power of Lukashenko in many respects depends on gas grants of Russia. But this understanding is not present.
it is difficult to do forecasts, but on an example with Ukraine we remember that the situation was resolved only after January, 1st. I think that as will occur and to Belarus. Now the parties use an agiotage of last Prenew Year`s days when it is possible to manage to get to itself the maximum benefit. Both parties as much as possible lift rates and bluff.
it is clear that the compromise will be found. Clearly that at the last minute Lukashenko will concede. Because, if it will block a gas pipe on the West, Europe hardly will support it even in this Antirussian step. Image of dictator Lukashenko already will rescue nothing.
To me interesting another. This propaganda gas war was developed when budget Cîþçíîãî of the state affirms. And it strongly exceeds last year`s. That is we have strengthening nadgosudarstvennyh institutes and propaganda struggle simultaneously!
As a matter of fact, there is an antagonism of two elite. The Belarus elite more solid - it is less, she understands the benefit from cheap Russian gas and is under control of one person (Lukashenko). In Russia the elite is split. On the one hand, she supports the pragmatical approach (even for friends of the price market), with another - understands that indulgences are necessary for the nearest allies. Besides, the Russian elite its popularity among Russians frightens harizmatichnost Lukashenko. And simply is afraid to start up the Belarus president on a political field of Russia.
From here Lukashenko`s such surprising duality - the ally (and it is all - taki so). To ignore it it is impossible. And to start up to itself the Father dangerously...
Though, I think, a fundamental tendency to association of Russia and Belarus not to change. We though and slowly, but steadily go to Union State.