Rus News Journal

the USA leave economic recession till the end of 2002, the American experts

consider the USA leave economic recession till the end of 2002, experts of the American research organisations " consider; Konferens bord " and " Phoenix management servisez ".

As the correspondent " informs; News " in the economic forecasts published on Wednesday both organisations foretell the exit beginning eknomiki the USA from the recession period already 2 the third quarter of this year. In 2002, considers " Konferens bord " real growth of GNP will exceed 1,3 percents, and in 2003 - 4,2 percents At the same time, by estimations filadelfijskoj " Phoenix management servisez " specialising in consultation of the companies needing re-structuring, the rate of unemployment, bankruptcies and not returned credits will grow.

While improvement of the American economy will not occur suddenly, believes Fosler, one of the basic certificates of the outlined turn 2 an exit from recession are growing indicators of industrial production which, according to the expert, should result and in growth of profits of the enterprises. " for the first time from crisis of 1970 manufacture growth was outlined at early stages of recession, and today`s profits is considerable above indicators more than 30 - summer prescription " - confirms in the report of Fosler.

It is characteristic that in both researches it is SPK about continuation of crisis of investments. About half from 107 interrogated " Phoenix management servisez " banks and payroll companies have agreed in opinion that light industry, sphere of service and trade in an industrial output become the most attractive spheres of crediting this year. On short rations, according to financiers, on - former there are again formed firms, the companies of hi-tech sector, trade and manufacturers of production of public health services and hygiene.

in sphere of high technologies the least confidence of creditors is called by the companies which are engaged in electronic trade, software working out, and granting of services in mobile communication sphere.

simultaneously poll bears and to expectation of continuation by financial circles of the USA and growth during the current year negative collateral tendencies of recession - unemployments, growth of number of bankruptcies and transient credits. Confidence of it has voiced stifling bolshinstv the interrogated financiers.

according to the president " Phoenix management servisez " Telbota Brajdella, " To economy of the USA have entered an antibiotic from recession, but on an extent still any time illness will be felt - and probably and to become aggravated - until definitively will not be forced out from an economic organism ".