eks - the Minister of Finance Michael Zadornov: On strengthening of dollar do not count!the dollar has recouped for a short while
- Michael Mihajlovich, experts unanimously promised to us that in January the dollar will fall in price, and the euro - will rise in price. But all has occurred just what isn`t needed. Then forecasts of our financial analysts, how a guessing on a coffee thick?
is how to tell. For a week or for a month forward precisely it is impossible to predict exchange rate jumps. It depends on variety of indicators, many of which - subjective. For example, the Central Bank can support a dollar exchange rate, and can make the statement which will weaken the American currency.
- and what, on - to yours, happens such in the beginning of year, what the dollar has gone to growth?
- It from October till December became cheaper concerning euro. Has lost 10 cents! And after long falling always growth. Especially if have appeared in time “ necessary “ Fresh statistical data. If in America in the third quarter and November, 2004 the economy developed rates advancing forecasts in Europe hardly rose.
but on long strengthening of dollar do not count. The economy in America grows not bad, however other factors influencing an exchange rate - the big expenditure for war in Iraq, import surpasses export, - unimportant. And the dollar can continue falling.
- and where there were experts one year ago when lifting of the prices for gasoline began? Fuel has risen in price for 30 %, and nobody has warned us.
- Analysts not gods, could not foreknow it. The gasoline market in many regions not competitive. Arrangement between the companies at the prices is possible. Population incomes allowed to sell gasoline at such price. Now oil industry workers change the price policy. In the near future it is not necessary to wait for such rise in prices. Moreover, some decrease is possible even.
- Financial oracles any more for the first time are trapped. And you on a word believe them?
- Not all. In Russia, for example, is tens institutes and experts which can competently estimate a macroeconomic situation. And frequently it at all those whom we see from screens of TVs. Economists too live the myths, which give rise and then one after another repeat. And in life all happens is arranged on - to another.
officials protect monopolists
- So at us economy unpredictable or nevertheless analysts have not learnt to count yet courses forward?
- it is not enough Competent experts. In some forecasts it is not necessary to believe only because they are frivolous.
- and how to be with the government which promises one rise in prices, and we on pockets feel absolutely another?
- to Listen to opinion of the government it is necessary. But absolutely it is not necessary to trust. The bureaucratic forecast always is born taking into account many political circumstances.
and as to a rise in prices, in 2003 officials have carried out the problem. Inflation has made 12 %. However by the end of the year Goskomstat has a little changed a calculation scale...
- have adjusted to the necessary result?
- I would not began to confirm it.
- why in 2004 - m officials were shorthanded with inflation?
- Because for the government and the Central bank struggle against inflation today not the primary goal. It is considered as important, but all - taki minor.
- And it is strong enough. Deputies of the State Duma of one and a half year achieved to establish in the legislation norm which will oblige the government to establish a limit of increase of tariffs for gas, the electric power and rail transportation before the budget will be accepted this year. I think, clearly for what it is necessary?
- They influence a rise in prices about which it is necessary to foreknow.
- it is exact. Deputies of last Duma have accepted this law contrary to opinion of the government. But what now occurs? For 2005, for example, the limit of increase of the tariff for gas for the population is established 24 %. And last year there were 20 %. Gas makes 40 % of a fuel resource of the Russian Open Society “ EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY “. That is after gas the prices and for an electricity will necessarily grow.
investors are stirred with one: how not to lose the money
- Experts apropos and without cause groan that in Russia a bad investment climate. And how to be that in the country new factories and factories, supermarkets open. Where truth?
- Investments into manufacture into last two years grow. In 2003 their growth has made almost 13 %, last year, I think, - 9 - 10 %. It is A lot of investments there where extract minerals. But for our country it while a drop in the sea. And since last year recoil on a broader scale has begun.
- that investors were frightened?
- “ Affairs “ YUKOS “ which became an example of pressure of the power on business. After that symbolical signal pressure upon small and average business in the form of requisitions has increased. Not from gangsters, and from supervising structures which have increased a corruption component.
the second significant signal - tax checks and additional collectings of taxes from the enterprises in the most different branches. For first three quarters of last year outflow of the private capital abroad has made 18,5 billion dollars. And 2003, I will remind, it was well-known for that have taken out from the country of all on 3 billion dollars more than have imported.
- but as soon as sale main " has begun; daughters “ “ YUKOS “ - “ Yuganskneftegaz “ - there and then foreigners were flied, as if here by honey is smeared.
- In Russia many think that foreign businessmen struggle for democracy. But businessmen need another: clear game rules. Possibility to save the invested capital. Conditionally speaking, if the African dictator tells: pay to me of 20 % from the transaction and nobody will touch you is them completely will arrange. And uncertainty frightens. And then myths more often are born.
- and how to be to simple citizens who are tormented with one thought: how to save the rather poor accumulation?
- Legal and economic literacy of the population has increased. It any more does not trust the first word from the TV. The person himself, also it is necessary to get used to it, is responsible for the decisions. Nobody will give the safe recipe of economic well-being. Life is that that the accessible information it is necessary to analyze and make the decision independently. To shift the decision on someone - on the state, on an analyst - it is senseless. You will lose. And the problem of experts - to provide citizens with the necessary information that was from what to choose.
as forecasts do not come true
|That promised in 2004||That has occurred in 2005|
|the Dollar||In the first half of the year 2005 will not exceed a mark in 27,80||on January, 27th became more expensive 28,10|
|Vodka||Will rise in price for 5 %||Has risen in price for 4 roubles (5 %)|
|Gasoline||the Price will decrease on 1 - 5 %||Has fallen in price on 2 - 4 %|
|Bread||Will rise in price in 2 times||While at former level|
|capital Outflow||After business “ YUKOS “ foreign investors poosteregutsja to put up money in the Russian economy. Flight of the capital from the country will proceed||Large transactions is not fixed. Capital outflow is saved. But to the same transaction on sale “ Yuganskneftegaz “ the Indian and Chinese investors|
|Cancellation of the tax from sales (5 %)||Street prices will decrease on 1 - 2 %||the Prices have grown on 1,5 %|
(It is made according to leading experts.)