As to us auknetsja “ neighbour`s rebellion “?we Will transfer for a minute the Ukrainian situation on the Russian soil. We will imagine: presidential election there pass at us, on a home straight of race two candidates, victory of everyone is unevident... A leah there are their supporters on snow and a frost for support? A ridiculous question.
even in the warm summer of 1996 when Yeltsin and Zyuganov went that is called, face to face, any of them has not risked to call on streets of the voters. Because knew - do not leave. Times of political euphoria of the beginning of the ninetieth in the past. The further life has convincingly shown - while one stood on barricades, others behind their backs divided the power and “ sawed “ the property.
now this lesson should be acquired to citizens of the next republic.
and what lessons Russia from events in Ukraine will take? It would Seem, to worry it is nothing us. The Russian society which has endured shock after disintegration of the USSR, is enough today monolitno. It has a vigorous charismatic leader. Unlike Ukraine to Russia there is an updating of political elite (now in power - third generation). Economic, social conditions in norm. Eventually we - great nuclear power. So, apparently, there are no bases to assume that, say, in 2008 in Russia the Ukrainian scenario can be played. However costs oslabnut though one making this basis of stability (for example, deterioration of an economic situation), and all can change.
at least one of obvious threats to Putin, seemingly, managed to be anticipated. Real danger of disorder of the country became result of opposition in Ukraine, as it is known, - one cities and regions have started to swear on Yushchenko`s fidelity, others - to Yanukovych. Putin reform of a state system can such threat for Russia (if all our regions go racing - will not seem a little) to eliminate.
however there is also a second important direction. All republics in which occurred so-called “ velvet revolutions “ - Georgia, Adzharija, Ukraine, - were during that moment in a status of political stagnation. Considering it, Russia, probably, it is necessary to make process of change of political elite by more dynamical. It is necessary to grow up worthy political leaders, without waiting, while for us it will be made by others.