The dollar will cost again 27 roubles?in 2009 ekonomistyprognozirujut decrease in a rate of national currency
In the country begins to arrive less petrodollars, import can prevysiteksport, and - as consequence - the rouble will depreciate. Such prognozyprozvuchali from a mouth of the director of department makroekonomicheskogoprognozirovanija Andrey`s KLEPACHA Ministry of economic development and trade and the main thing ekonomistakompanii the Three Dialogue Evgenie GAVRILENKOVA. What is it a leah means also costs to Russians zhdatpovtorenija 1998?
to storm exchangers it is not necessary
Economists connect devaluation with falling of the prices for raw materials and rostomkorporativnyh debts. Reduction of prices on oil has already played znachitelnujurol in reduction of an export gain. According to Ministry of economic development and trade, the positive balance of trading balance has decreased on 25,5 % on sravnenijus January - February, 2006.
According to Andrey Klepacha, while rouble depreciation in forecasts nezakladyvaetsja, but sharp devaluation can statedinstvennoj alternative .
- rouble Strengthening will be replaced by a return tendency in 2009. CHerezdva year the dollar will cost 26,9 roubles, - economist IK " believes; finam Olga WHITE. - all depends from masshtabovi speeds of devaluation. If it occurs suddenly will result kdestabilizatsii the financial markets and will affect rates of inflation. All etovyzovet a panic among economic agents and the population. If zhedevalvatsija will smoothly occur, it will bring to economy tolkopolzu.
According to Evgenie Gavrilenkova, to the government in two years pridetsjavybirat between suppression of import by means of rouble easing (ilikardinalnoj devaluations) and suppression of investments at the expense of that zhepadenija a rouble exchange rate.
In turn, the director of bank institute of the Higher school ekonomikivasily SOLODKOV urges not to run vpaniku.
- For economy smooth devaluation of rouble it is good. It will result ktomu that the Russian goods will be more competitive. So, budget incomes will grow, salaries will increase, it is more than money budetpostupat in the Pension fund, - Solodkov speaks. - Now prodolzhaetsjatendentsija rouble strengthenings in relation to dollar, and it not ochenhorosho. At us few the competitive goods and the big costs priproizvodstve. Except neftjanki at us fakticheskinichego is not present, and this situation is necessary for changing.
Russians should not endure horrors of 1998 again.
- we have huge reserves of the Central Bank and Stabfond. Sharp snizhenijadobychi oil will not be, and the rate of exchange operated. So about rezkojdevalvatsii it is not necessary to speak, - Solodkov is assured.
- To be afraid to people there is nothing, and any panic among the population devalvatsijane will call. By this time we will have a stable rouble exchange rate. The government plans through two - three years to lower inflation to 4 - 5 %. Thus, it will be comparable to inflation in the majority stranmira, - the group economist of financial corporation " speaks; Uralsib Vladimir TIKHOMIROV. - Devalvatsijaozhidaetsja smooth and insignificant. If the rouble falls in price on 10 - 20κξοεεκ, nobody will run in exchangers sharply to buy up currency. Takoevozmozhno, only if people will expect again crisis, and it, dazheuchityvaja possible reduction of prices on oil, is not expected.
under government forecasts, within 2008 the rouble in nominalnomvyrazhenii should fall in price for 20 copecks, in 2009 - m - for 70 copecks.
according to experts if the default of the federal budget on this razne threatens us from corporate defaults of guarantees is not present. For the last 3 - 4 years private sector debts have sharply grown. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, if in January, 2005 an external debt not financial private institutovsostavljal 76,4 mlrd dollars in January, 2006 -
125 mlrd dollars, and in January 2007 - go - 159,5 mlrd dollars Thus, zadva year debts of the companies on foreign loans have grown twice. It was contributed by low interest rates under credits abroad iukreplenie rouble. If such rates of increase of a debt are saved, situatsijadlja the companies can become critical. In case of sharp povyshenijamirovyh interest rates payment of promissory notes can statbremenem for many companies.