Rus News Journal

When Vladivostok will shake on 7 points, « the White house » will stand

Academician Valery Abramov makes comments on hearings about fast earthquake in Primorski Krai.

For the first time hearings about possible cataclysm on seaside capital have spread about two weeks ago. One of local channels has scared televiewers a dangerous seismic situation, then TV men have quoted radijshchiki. It has sufficed, that in edition uneasy readers with one question have started to call: It is truth? behind comments it was converted to to Valery Abramovu, the professor, the doctor geologo - mineralogical sciences, to the academician of the International academies of geology, geophysics, ecology.

In a city - landslips!

- Not a secret that the south of Primorski Krai, including Vladivostok, are in a seismodangerous zone (see For September, 12th, 2003) . And earthquakes do not pass us. It is normal, and should be. Absence of earthquakes can mean death of mother Earth. And here is how it is frequent also what force there will be earthquakes is already other question. The history knows examples of successful forecasts. For example, the Chinese seismologists have foretold earthquake in the city of Hajchen on February, 4th, 1975 and that have rescued ones and a half - two million person. Nevertheless forecasts - employment ungrateful. It is possible to ascertain only that for last 150 years Primorski Krai has tested approximately 150 earthquakes, including the strong.

- that is on one in a year?

- Roughly speaking, yes. Though it is necessary to notice that seismic activity is subject to cycles. There are periods on 10, 20 and even 30 years when earthquakes are made often, and there are periods when bowels are silent.

- and now what period?

- We enter a strip of the raised seismic activity. In it specify historical cycles and real events.

- what?

- Pushes which have been registered recently. Earthquakes in 1 - 2 points at us occur, at least, once a quarter. We practically do not feel them. More notable pushes - 3 - 4 points (it is comparable to shudders of soil from a number of a passing tram) - occurred recently, it is literally couple of weeks back, in vicinities of Vladivostok. Too without any consequences.

- and all - taki hearings what waits for us earthquake whence have gone?

- There are scientific techniques which allow to estimate degree of activization of our bowels. The matter is that southern Primorski Krai is located in a so-called seismogenerating zone of a break Atlantiok .

Imagine on a map a narrow strip in the form of an arch of 10 thousand kilometres and width more than 100 kilometres. It lasts from coast of Atlantic through Europe and all Russia. In its limits Kaliningrad, Moscow suburbs, Tatarstan, Altai are located, and it comes to an end in Primorski Krai. And so, along this arch recently there are serious enough earthquakes. More recently shook Kaliningrad. Pushes force - seven points have destroyed to six about 50 houses. The railroad tracks have been broken off, there were failures depth to 25 - 20 metres.

the Seismogenerating zone of a break Atlantiok .

Besides in 2002 - 2004 pushes in Moscow suburbs by force to five - six points though they have wrongly been carried to the category of technogenic pushes have been fixed. In Tatarstan seismic events occurred in 90 - h years, and on Altai strong earthquake is registered last year. That is a zone Atlantiok becomes more active. In Primorski Krai it comes to an end with triangle THO (Tumangan - Khanka - Olga) in which centre Vladivostok is located. In activization of bowels recently began to specify sharp changes of level of ground waters in chinks and plentiful allocation of deep gases.

- I heard, there were landslips?

- Now we really observe the landslips called by tectonic activity in Vladivostok. For example, on a crossroads of streets of Spiridonov and Shepetkova. Last year hardly above Spiridonov`s street too there was a landslip - slightly privalilo the entrances, very long all then cleaned it.

In Primorski Krai the seismogenerating zone comes to an end with triangle THO (Tumangan - Khanka - Olga) in which Vladivostok is located.

If tomorrow there will be a push

- At building of Vladivostok seismic danger of district, in my opinion, has been obviously underestimated, approximately on two points. If level of seismodanger of Vladivostok to six points, that, by my estimations and estimations of other scientists officially admits, this level makes eight, and on some sites even nine points.

- than it is fraught?

- At pushes in eight points on depth 30 percent of an infrastructure of a city will be destroyed to 20 kilometres approximately. At nine points of destruction will make to 45 percent. It will lead to considerable human victims and material losses.

- also what now to do?

- From our point of view, the problem needs to be solved both on regional, and at federal level. The same approach, as in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskij is necessary. There seismic norms for again under construction buildings are entered. And already constructed houses are estimated on reliability. Unreliable objects should be taken down or strengthened. The faster we will execute this work, the more than human lives we will rescue. We will remember earthquake of 1995 on Sakhalin in Neftegorske. Pushes in nine and a half - ten points have destroyed a city completely. Two thirds of population were lost. Here that means to be under construction without seismic danger.

I do not say that each building in Vladivostok demands strengthening. For example, the ancient houses constructed during imperial times, will sustain even eight-mark earthquake. And here new houses, for example panel 83 - j series, are unreliable. Five-storey apartment blocks too. Much still depends and on where the house costs. Houses constructed on slopes of hills are Most dangerous. Though recently some buildings began to be erected taking into account danger. For example, a monolithic skyscraper on Tchurkin or brick candles on Nekrasovsky. the White house by the way, it is calculated on pushes to seven and a half points though the railway tunnel which is passing almost under it can strongly knock down it.

the Chronicle

When shook Primorski Krai

Signs of approaching earthquake:

How to escape

the Fact

World practice shows that the damage from earthquake repeatedly exceeds expenses for aseismic building. By the way, at increase in seismic stability at one point cost of building of a building increases for 20 percent. In 1906 the city the Dignity - Frantsisko has been destroyed. Americans have started to build up a city on - new, taking into account danger. Even the buildings which have escaped at earthquake have been destroyed by builders, and on their place new houses with the raised durability are erected. Pragmatic Americans consider that have saved thus huge money.

the Photo of the author.

Hearings checked