Rus News Journal

the Ministry of Finance of Russia raises the inflation forecast in 2005 B4 10 %

Inflation in 2005, under the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, can make 10 %. About it it is SPK in the report of the ministry on the basic directions of a tax policy which is available on hand " News ".

Now the forecast put in the federal budget for 2005, makes 8,5 %.

In 2004 inflation has made 11,7 %.

Later 2NITE the Minister of Finance of Russia Alexey Kudrin has told to journalists: " We now consider also pessimistic vanty when inflation can reach and 10 % ".

As he said, the Ministry of Finance considers some scenarios of total inflation in 2005, but the forecast in 8,5 % is defining.

" To reach level of annual inflation at a rate of 8,5 % according to the forecast put in the federal budget for 2005, difficult, but it is theoretically possible in case during summer MTH we will manage to leave on negative inflation (deflation) " - he has told.

According to Kudrin, much will depend on what decisions will be accepted on Stabilization fund, and also in the field of a pricing policy in housing and communal services, the prices for gasoline, and the main thing - in the general policy of budgetary expenses.

Experts named reasonable spent by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation updating of the forecast of inflation for 2005.

" It is very reasonable " - has told " News " the chairman of Coordination council of the enterprise unions Alexander Shokhin.

In its opinion, updating of forecasts on the basic macroeconomic indicators (not only inflations, but also the prices for oil) will allow to prepare more realistic budget for 2006. " that we begin budgetary process with updating of the basic indicators, will put the budget of 2006 on a realistic basis " - Shokhin has told.

It has reminded that usual practice of the government consisted that the forecast on inflation was corrected in the end of the year or IAC not earlier than October. But taking into account that in January - February of this year inflation twice advances similar indicators of last year, the Ministry of Finance " has been urged to make this updating ". " to W8 for a miracle it is not necessary " - the expert has told.

the Head of the Duma committee of the credit organisations and the financial markets Vladislav Reznik considers that the increase in a rate of inflation predicted by the Ministry of Finance in 2005 B4 10 % is connected with growth of expenses of the federal budget.

" Inflation is stimulated with heavy expenses of the budget and absence of rigid control over the budget " - Reznik in interview " has told; News " on Saturday.

As he said, one of pacing factors which will influence inflation growth, the increase in expenses of the budget at preferential payments is.

" On a monetization it is used more means, than it was planned " - the head of committee of the State Duma has told.

As he said, the increase in expenses of the budget is connected 2 by that " there is a pressure upon the government and upon the Ministry of Finance from other departments ".

2, in its opinion, the contribution to inflation brings also preservation kvotirovanija on some grocery goods, including on meat and chicken meat. " last year it has given inflation growth nearby 1,5 - 2 % " - Reznik has told.

Predicted by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation the rate of inflation in 10 % is more realistic, but also it is exigeant. Such opinion have voiced " News " experts of the Russian investment companies.

" The figure in 10 % is much more realistic, but also it will be enough difficult in performance " - the analyst of investment company " considers; TSerih " Nikolay Podlevsky who has assumed that in 2005 inflation can exceed 11 %.

Stanislav Kleshchev from investment company " adheres to the Same opinion; Fajnenshnl the Bridge ". " I Am afraid, as 10 % will not execute, CUZ 4 % for two MTH are already search " - he considers.

In its opinion, real levers of bridling of inflation are not present, in particular, it is not necessary to count on a summer deflation. The prices for oil high, budgetary expenses grow, tariffs of the state monopolies raise - such reasons of sharp growth of inflation were listed during the current year by the expert.

" As previous year practice shows, to constrain inflation it will not be possible " - Kleshchev summarised.

Podlevsky, in turn, has noticed that levers and ways of struggle against inflation are, in particular, " zazhimanie monetary weight " but " the negative phenomena from similar measures outweigh appeal of their use ". Besides, growth of tariffs of natural monopolies 2 influences inflationary processes, the expert has added.