Rus News Journal

Russia costs on the brink of sharp demographic recession

Demographic tendencies and characteristics of present Russia considerably and in the adverse image influence potential of the country and its people. They affect the Russian social conditions, economic possibilities, military power and the international influence, writes The Washington Post in a material which transfer publishes Inopressa. Ru. Russia costs on the brink of sharp demographic recession. In 1992, after disintegration of the USSR, the population of Russia made 148,7 million To the middle of 2003, according to the State committee on statistics, the population of the Russian Federation has made 144,5 million But it not the unique loss of the population registered for this period. By estimations and forecasts of the American Bureau of population census, between the middle 1992 and the middle of 2003 more than 10 states have faced population reduction, in many of them losses are more considerable, than the Russian 3,1 %. But in difference, for example, from Bosnia, it is impossible to explain the Russian recession by war. In other places population decrease is bodily connected with emigration. Russia these years has endured flow of the migrants who have added to number of inhabitants more of 5,5 million of persons. On enough optimistic to the forecast of the American Bureau of population census, between 2000 and 2025 years the population of Russia will decrease for 10 million persons. Under the moderate forecast of demographic service of the United Nations, recession for this period will exceed 21 million persons. Reduction of population of Russia has all signs demographic shock reflecting sharp changes in result of important, historical event destroying system. Probably, this shock is not a time shock. There are bases to believe that the current trends define that in the country became norm. Birth rate has fallen with 2,19 in 1986 - 87 years to 1,17 in 1999. Leah it is possible to hope for return process under more favorable political and economic conditions? It is possible, but there is a set of obstacles to improvement. In - the first, the ill health of Russians as a whole mentions also sphere of reproductive health, and it means that barreness is in Russia more serious problem, than in the West countries. Under last messages, 13 % of married couples in Russia are fruitless that almost twice exceeds the American indicator of 1995. Many Russians consider as the well-tried remedy of contraception abortion. As the expert marks Murray Feshbah, from 10 to 20 % of women in Russia become fruitless after abortions . Add to it prevalence izlechimyh diseases, sexually transmitted. According to official figures, in 2001 in Russia of cases of disease a syphilis was in 100 times more, than in Germany. In - the second, throughout last generation in Russia representations about a family, adverse for occurrence of the big families were generated. The youth less, than earlier, is inclined to marry and is more often gets divorced. In 2001 in Russia on each four concluded marriages it was necessary three divorces. In - the third, after wreck of the Soviet system Russia has begun reunion with other Europe, and present Russian level of birth rate at all is not for Europe something outstanding. Though the Russian indicators are on bottom to edge of the European range, they above, than in some other postcommunist countries. But the death rate is represented completely not European. For four decades which have passed with 1961 - 62 till 2002, life expectancy of men in Russia was reduced almost to five years. At women this indicator too has decreased, but is insignificant. Death rate as a result of traumas - murders, suicides, dorozhno - transport incidents, poisonings and other violent reasons - with 1965 for 2001 more than has doubled. For men 65 years a death rate from traumas and poisonings four times above, than in Finland having the worst indicators in EU are younger. It is possible to explain an ill health of Russians a number of the reasons: smoking, a bad food, a sedentary life, increasing stratification of a society, economic stresses of the Russian way of transition to market economy, bad system of public health services. Besides, it is impossible to lose sight of love of Russians to vodka. The next decades Russia, on - visible, will face sharp reduction of quantity of youth. In 1975 - 2000 the quantity of men at the age from 15 till 24 years fluctuated between 10 and 13 million Under the United Nations forecast, by their 2025 will be no more than 6 million Besides military value of such recession, it will affect also economy and social sphere. At smaller number of the people, capable to replace those who leaves number of work forces, the question on improvement of professional skill of economically active part of the population becomes much sharper. Probably, Russia becomes normal the western country only when the public will declare that with a similar situation it is impossible to be reconciled. Perhaps, then officials will clear up from hibernation and will rise on fatherland protection. NEWSru. com