ETS: the dollar has fallen in price for 20 copeck
the Official rate of dollar established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for October, 21st 2008ã., has made 26,0561 rbl./ dollars Thus, the exchange rate of the USA for October, 21st has decreased for 20 copeck concerning the previous course. The bank of Russia, possibly, will establish an euro official rate for October, 21st 2008ã. At level 35,3988 rbl./ euro. The given indicator for 22 copeck exceeds the official rate of the European currency established by Bank of Russia the day before.
At the international stock exchanges moderate easing of the American currency to euro in the morning was observed. By the time of an establishment of Central Bank rates of the Russian Federation in market Forex 1,35 dollars whereas by the end of first half of day on October, 18th for 1 euro gave about 1,3450 dollars In comparison with prior trading days currency of the USA oslabla in relation to European approximately on 0,35 % paid for 1 euro of an order.
it is quite possible that such dynamics is connected by that the Central bank of the Russian Federation has changed an order of carrying out of transactions “ a currency swap “. As has informed department external and public relations of Bank of Russia, daily, proceeding from the forecast of deficiency of bank liquidity and taking into account a conjuncture of the internal currency market, the maximum volume of the means given to the credit organisations on operations " will be established; a currency swap “ the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. On October, 20th the Bank of Russia has informed, the maximum volume of means under transactions “ a currency swap “ on Monday it is established at a rate of 50 mlrd rbl.
Within trading day of the transaction “ a currency swap “ the Central Banks of the Russian Federation will consist in limits of the established limit provided that the swap - a difference is not below the level defined according to current order. Thus the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will start with the interest rate by a rouble part of 10 % and on the currency: on dollar - in a binding to target rates of Federal reserve system of the USA, on euro - in a binding to target rates of the European central bank.
the Given changes are spent for the purpose of maintenance of conformity of volumes of refinancing by means of operations “ a currency swap “ Bank of Russia to target reference points monetary - the credit policy.
Besides, on Monday of border of maximum deviation of value of a course from the central course on dollar are established at a rate of +1,0 %/ - 2,3 %.
In the market speak about possible devaluation of rouble much. However, as analysts IK " believe; the Three Dialogue “ At the government of the Russian Federation on - former enough resources, therefore Russia unlike the majority of countries of Eastern Europe will manage to avoid a collapse of national currency. Nevertheless the authorities can admit some easing of rouble to slow down reduction of gold and exchange currency reserves.
Analysts FK “ Uralsib “ notice that now in favour of rouble that fact acts that its sharp easing can undermine trust of the population to national currency and lead to a mass conclusion of deposits from the Russian banks supervised by residents (the total amount of deposits makes 206 mlrd rbl.). Meanwhile rouble easing would allow to reduce considerably import and by that to compensate decrease in an export gain as a result of falling of the prices in the raw markets. According to experts “ Uralsiba “ in case of the further reduction of prices on oil (we will tell, to 40-50 dollars/ barr.) The Central Bank nevertheless will weaken rouble to bivaljutnoj “ to a basket “.
Experts have once again analysed the reasons of outflow of rouble liquidity through the currency market, on which Central Bank is urged to sell daily 2-4 mlrd dollars for the purpose of maintenance of an exchange rate of rouble. This outflow only is partly caused by a conclusion of the foreign capital and converting of rouble savings in dollars. Other reason of demand for dollars and high turns on operations of a currency swap (which volume on Friday has exceeded 10 mlrd dollars) It is necessary to search in offshore zones. According to the experts, for September “ daughters “ foreign banks have placed on deposits of banks - non-residents of means at the rate about 7 mlrd dollars, and, judging by turns in the currency market, in October their volume can appear not smaller or even to increase. As many of these banks are not admitted to participation in auctions on placing of temporarily free budgetary funds (from the banks supervised by non-residents, in these auctions have the right to participate only “ rajffajzenbank “ “ JUnikredit bank “ and “ Rosbank “) The volume of deposits in banks - non-residents increases not only at the expense of investment of temporarily free public funds.
According to analysts FK “ Uralsib “ the regulator can undertake following steps for reduction of scales “ flight “ in dollars: temporarily to raise rates on a currency swap to 15-20 % and/ or to enter restriction on daily volume of operations; to change specifications for banks - non-residents (first of all specification Í1); to strengthen rouble, thereby having created volatilnost and having lowered expectations of easing of rouble. “ we also observe it: on October, 20th since the morning the rouble has become stronger in relation to dollar at once for 30 copeck, to 25,91 rbl./ dollars “ - experts mark.
on October, 20th the Central Bank will spend the first auction on bezzalogovym to credits to commercial banks. A limiting total volume of credits - 700 mlrd rbl. (26,8 mlrd dollars) The minimum rate - 8,5 %. Credits are given within the limits of the anti-recessionary measures of the state directed on support of bank system and called to improve a situation with liquidity. In the morning of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already placed at credit auction 387,7 mlrd rbl., the cutting off rate has made 8,50 %. This factor can make on Monday impact on dynamics of the currency market.
As analysts " mark; Uralsiba “ reduction of prices on oil forces pressure upon rouble, however experts expect that the Central Bank will not admit considerable easing of rouble concerning dollar.