Vote of no confidence in money termsthe President and the State Duma have agreed: Boris Yeltsin has promised to execute
the Vote of no confidence in money terms
the President and the State Duma have agreed: Boris Yeltsin has promised to execute a part of requirements of parliament, and that did not begin to declare to the government a vote of no confidence. Week crisis, by words the prime minister - the minister, has managed to economy of Russia in $510 million
we Want that or not, the country lives in market economy. It is a thing extremely sensitive, the prospect of a recent vote of no confidence to the government became for it crushing.
If one week ago the Duma has taken out a vote of no confidence to the government, and then within three months has repeated it under the Constitution the president would be obliged either to dismiss a thought, or to send in resignation of premieres - the minister. That is cheaper: again to select 450 deputies or one head of the government?
both that and another would manage the expensive.
resignation of premieres - the minister inevitably would cause crash in the Russian share and financial markets. In any country of the world investors in a situation of political uncertainty prefer to sell local actions and to buy the American dollars or gold. For a week, divided two attempt to take out a vote of no confidence to the government, the share index has decreased on 1,5 %. Meanwhile falling of stock quotes at a stock exchange of all on 1 % means that the Russian companies become cheaper on $1 billion For ten leading companies of Russia it pours out in loss of $50 - 100 million in capitalisation of each enterprise, from - for what reception of the same volume of investments will cost, for example, the Russian Open Society “ UES of Russia “ or “ to Gazprom “ on 1 - 2 % are more expensive. For investors change of market cost “ blue counters “ on 1 % leads to change of cost of securities on 1,5 - 2 % as at activization of the market the disorder of quotations considerably increases, therefore investors bear heavy losses, than the enterprises. In a word, market falling on a hand only to brokers because they always win when investors make transactions.
resignation of premieres - the minister would break balance and in the market of the state securities. Their price would start to fall, and profitableness - to grow. The increase in average profitableness of state bonds at 1 % for the state means loss about 2,5 million roubles from each billion roubles of the sold state bonds. At present volumes of loans of loss will make nearby 13 mlrd roubles. It that money which the government could spend for payment of salaries to teachers or doctors.
but there is more to come. In the end of last week the government managed to place in the world financial markets a loan on $400 million At a failure of parliamentary voting Russia this money would not see.
However, early election in the State Duma would cost more expensive still. All unpleasant consequences of resignation of premieres - the minister would take a place and in this case. But this nightmare would last three months - is taken away by the Constitution on re-elections of the dismissed parliament so much. Besides, the state should incur all expenses connected with carrying out of the All-Russia voting.
presidential elections in 1996 have managed to treasury in 2,5 trln roubles. Parliamentary, half a year earlier, is much cheaper - in 714 mlrd than roubles. But it only those expenses that has been provided by the special item in the budget. During new election campaign for maintenance of worthy results of elections to the progovernmental movement “ Our house - Russia “ it should to spend some more trillions roubles on “ purchase “ voters - granting of various privileges to the enterprises and the whole regions.
Vadim ARSENYEV, Ivan PETROV, Vladimir KUCHERENKO