The portfolio of the investor
the Situation on a securities market last week as a whole developed without sharp launches and falling - upwards courses of bank actions traditionally clambered, active trade was conducted in the market of the state short-term bonds. The most rough events occurred behind frameworks of an investment portfolio. The Ulyanovsk aviation association “ Aviastar “ declared placing of actions of the third release for the sum hardly less than 30 mlrd rbl., and at once two large Moscow dealers in the share market of the privatised enterprises - “ the Intermediary “ and the Moscow investment fund - was undertaken by radical steps on activization of secondary trade, aspiring to get rid from threateningly nizkolikvidnyh share holdings of the largest Moscow privatised enterprises. These events have once again confirmed competency of an exception of actions of the privatised enterprises from a conservative portfolio.
we refuse what inheritance
Making conservative model “ the Portfolio of the investor “ experts have made rigid demands to liquidity and profitableness of the papers included in this portfolio. As a result of the analysis spent on the basis of these requirements experts have preferred while to refrain from inclusion in a portfolio of actions of the privatised enterprises. The overwhelming majority of securities of the joint-stock companies which have resulted the first year of voucher privatisation, differs catastrophically low liquidity - in the markets of these papers there are no centres of secondary trade, there is no information on emitters, in a terrifying condition there is depozitarnaja an infrastructure.
This inheritance of voucher privatisation forces experts while rigidly enough to remove the action of the privatised enterprises for limits of the investment preferences. Even being rare exception (emitted, in particular, GUMom and East port) extremely strong course fluctuations are peculiar to rather liquid actions of the privatised enterprises that in the light of the requirements shown to the portfolio, is inadmissible.
it is interesting that two large dealers, will of circumstances of the actions of the privatised enterprises limited around, - the official intermediary of Fund of property of Moscow “ the Intermediary “ and the Moscow investment fund - last week have decided to affect own forces quality of a secondary securities market of the privatised enterprises: independently from each other they have opened share shops in Moscow. It is thus essential that the company “ the Intermediary “ Has opened the share shop under a roof of operational hall RTSB. This fact testifies that isolated financial brokers start to consider expedient concentration of share trade in known to public and professionals the centres of financial transaction which under certain conditions in the future are capable to evolve in normal stock exchanges.
with satisfaction looking at attempts of dealers to create the secondary share market of the privatised enterprises, experts while nevertheless have solved popriderzhat the modest means from their involving in operation in this market. Correctness of such policy confirms last case with “ Aviastar “.
Labour collective and administration “ Aviastar “ have taken care of itself
Since this Monday “ Aviastar “ starts placing of actions of the third release. As a result of carrying out of this subscription an authorised capital stock “ Aviastar “ will increase almost in 10 times and will exceed 32 mlrd rbl.
In a usual situation tenfold increase in an authorised capital stock could cause serious fears for liquidity of the secondary share market “ Aviastar “ but also no more that. However in the given concrete case placing of actions of the third release is organised within the limits of revaluation of fixed capital “ Aviastar “ the Russian Federation spent according to the governmental order #595 from August, 14th, 1992 and the letter of the Ministry of Finance of Russia #56 from May, 5th, 1993 These documents have allowed “ to Aviastar “ to organise free distribution of actions of the third release between owners of actions of the first release in a corresponding proportion. As a result of labour collective “ Aviastar “ Privatised even before acceptance of the Government program of privatisation, will receive 96,8 % of actions of the third release for the sum nearby 25 mlrd rbl.
In this situation it is possible to sympathise only with those investors who have got actions of the second release. It is essential that the lion`s share of holders of actions “ Aviastar “ the second release institutional investors, mainly make check funds. Revaluation of funds “ Aviastar “ in a flash desjatikratno has reduced earlier considerable share of check funds in an authorised capital stock of the largest Volga region aviation enterprise and has actually deprived possibility funds to participate in decision-making process on this firm.
more detailed analysis of a situation with “ Aviastar “ readers can find in the privatisation review which will be published in the following number.
Investbank Actions are sense to return in a portfolio
Making last portfolio of the investor, experts long enough fluctuated in the relation “ young “ banks. As a result of meditations it has been decided to include in a portfolio of the action of Tveruniversalbanka, banks “ Hermes - the Center “ “ Mytishchinsky “ and Vitabanka. Thus out of a portfolio there were actions of some other aggressive provincial young banks, including the Kaliningrad Investbank.
latest developments have shown that at drawing up of this part of an investment portfolio experts have admitted the small miscalculation, having refused papers of the Kaliningrad bank. The matter is that at once two circumstances which have been found out last week, allow to consider Investbank actions as especially preferable object for investments. First of all, the bank only - only has registered results of placing of actions of the second release for the sum hardly less than 1 mlrd rbl. The termination of primary placing of actions is traditional is stimulus for market occurrence “ bulls “ - expansion of the offer of papers stops, and at creation of the secondary market limitation of the offer often initiates share price growth. This effect was already showed last week - as a result, having bought Investbank actions in a portfolio at the rate of 11,5 thousand rbl. only last week, instead of on before last, experts have missed possibility to pick up these papers on a threshold of launch of a course. Nevertheless brokers expect the further steady increase in course cost of papers of Investbank in September.
thus brokers are guided by one more sign of possible increase of a share price. As it became known from the sources close to board of Investbank, at last board meeting the question on the announcement of intermediate dividends under actions of bank at the rate about 200 % annual was considered. The exact figure will be declared in the twentieth of September at annual meeting of shareholders.
all listed signs of possible improvement of a conjuncture in the Investbank share market have forced experts to include these papers in a portfolio - at the expense of reduction of the sizes of share holdings of Mytishchinsky commercial bank and Tveruniversalbanka. On the action of these banks the choice has fallen not casually.
the secondary turn of actions of Mytishchinsky bank in Moscow develops slowly - the Moscow market of bank securities already is somewhat oversaturated by actions of young not Moscow banks after successful subscription campaigns on papers of Investbank, Tveruniversalbanka and the Siberian trading bank. Actions of Tveruniversalbanka, according to the increasing quantity of financial brokers, can be seriously overestimated already in the middle of this month - critical the mark in 2000 rbl. is considered From the checked up sources it became known that the bank studies now with dealers strategy of deduction of high liquidity of the secondary market of the papers in case of the valid revaluation of their course. Nevertheless conservative experts have preferred to reduce twice almost a share of actions of Tveruniversalbanka in a portfolio.
is more careful with the bank bill
As to dynamics of a monetary part of an investment portfolio in this review experts have decided to concentrate attention to bills of Issue syndicate. Since last Monday members of syndicate have started placing of the bill 18 - j series, profitableness of the bill in comparison with 17 - j a series (bills 17 - j series have been included in our portfolio) has been thus essentially reduced.
many investors have hastened to apprehend This decision of Issue syndicate as the beginning of a long-term tendency on decrease in current profitableness of the bank bill from a series to a series. Thus arguments in advantage of such expectations of dynamics of profitableness of the bill were resulted the most different, up to hearings about problems of the syndicated banks on service of means involved under bills: too high profitableness of bills of the previous series complicated an effective utilisation of the means involved by means of bills.
thereupon experts pay attention to two essential factors, capable to affect dynamics of profitableness of the bank bill of following series.
on the one hand, today almost inevitable essential decrease in interest rates already in the end of the third quarter is represented. All indicators testify to it. In - the first, according to last official data, in the third quarter growth of the centralised credits instead of assumed before 30 % will make more than 40 % that will provoke natural expansion of the offer of credit weight in the market. In - the second, at the fifth auction of the state short-term bonds the Central bank, seemingly, cannot insist again on sharp increase in volume of the offer of bonds that again will allow the Ministry of Finance to borrow money in the market under ridiculous percent. In - the third, the behaviour of the credit managers trading in money through the Cash union, testifies to expectation of possible decrease in interest rates - many borrowers delay registration of credits for a period of a month and more in expectation of essential decrease in the rate under interbank credits.
At last, according to hearings persistently circulating in bank circles, from - for not co-ordinated actions of the Central bank of Russia and the State tax service at reporting delivery on the third quarter in unexpectedly unpleasant situation there can be emitters of the discounted bills as it is expected that the means involved with banks from sale of this category of bills can become a subject of more rigid taxation, rather than from sale of bills percentage.
all these factors confirm fears of financial brokers of that bills of following series will have lower profitableness. In the middle of this week the Issue syndicate declares price characteristics of the bill 19 - j series. If thus profitableness of these bills is lowered in comparison with profitableness of bills of a current series experts, possibly, will make the decision to include these bills in a portfolio as in that case the tendency to decrease in interest rates really promises to be long-term.
SERGEY - ASPIN