Calculations of experts and experts of the governmental statistical services show that within July - August inflation in an economy consumer sector left on qualitatively new level. Thus the state policy of ultrahigh procurement prices and the future next indexation of incomes of the population do not leave, in our opinion, chances of essential delay of a rise in prices till the end of the year.
Trading profit: while the prices grow, there is a hope
As we and assumed in our last reviews, relative stabilisation of a dollar exchange rate on dynamics of the prices of the consumer market was not reflected in the exchange market. By estimations of the Center of an economic conjuncture at the government of the Russian Federation, growth of consumer prices in August has reached 29 %, and tariffs for paid services - 48 % (drawings 1 and 2 see). Under the certificate of experts of the centre, such rates of increase of the prices in the consumer market it was not fixed since March of last year.
in August the prices in severo - east regions of Russia (region - the leader - Volgo - Vjatsky where rates of inflation in a cash turn have reached 41 %) most intensively grew. Quieter situation has developed in Zauralye and the Volga region. The minimum growth of cost of life (at level of 25 %) has been fixed in East - Siberian region. By estimations of the experts, similar distinctions in rates of inflation on regions (16 - 17 points) in August also were maximum for all time of supervision in 1993.
moreover, distinctions in rates of increase of the prices in regions, even " essentially increase; safe “ from the point of view of the general price dynamics. So, in Far East region internal differentiation of rates of change of the prices has made 57 percentage points (from 8 % in Yakutia to 65 % in the Magadan area), in the Volga region - 30 (from 8 % in the Penza region to 38 % - in Astrakhan).
Our estimations of rates of increase of the consumer prices, made following the results of August, essentially are more modest: 12 % on the goods and 18 % on services. We will notice however that we have fixed record on scales inflationary “ a candle “ (at level of 45 %) following the results of July. It is not surprising, as the price spiral starts to be untwisted first of all from big cities where registrars and conduct supervision over the prices.
anyhow, but the resulted figures (as conjuncture Center, and) unequivocally testify that 1993 even following the results of eight months became already more “ inflationary “ than last (if not to take into consideration “ liberalizatsionnuju a candle “ in January, 1992). At the same time constant growth of costs and acceleration as credit, and nalichno - monetary issue allow to make the forecast that following the results of 1993 will be fixed at least pjatnadtsatikratnyj growth of consumer prices.
if thus to consider that the rise in prices in the second half of the year proceeds and, probably, will proceed till the end of the year at much “ tormozimom “ growth of currency quotations, the businessmen working on the consumer market (especially to importers), do not have the bases to be afraid for profitableness of the business. Moreover, the fixed increase of regional distinctions in rates of inflation will allow to increase essentially in the near future volumes have arrived at the expense of an operative regrouping of geography of deliveries on regions. As show the data of the Center of an economic conjuncture and own supervision, during each concrete moment of time does not make the big work to answer a question, what region next month will appear among leaders on dynamics of the prices.
the matter is that promotion of regions in leaders and their recoil in outsiders accurately enough falls under action “ the pendulum law “ - to send the goods on realisation it is necessary in those areas where today the prices grow in whole more slowly.
at the same time growth of the rouble prices at slower growth of a cash dollar exchange rate leads to sharp increase in cost of an elite basket of consumption (I type) in recalculation on a currency equivalent. Only for last three months its cost has grown from $480 to more than $700 a month on the person. As such rates of actual depreciation of dollar are not present in one country of the world, it is possible to assume that in the near future should become more active considerably “ shuttle “ Business and in general spontaneous import, including for needs of personal consumption.