The review of investmentsLight industry. The similar situation has developed and in manufacture of sewing and knitted products which stably loses the positions since March. It seems that in the near future and growth of a dollar exchange rate will not correct position: rupture in quality and the prices of import and domestic clothes is too great.
however, with knitted products, excuse for a pun, to communicate there is a certain reason: up to winter, in updating and clothes replenishment, the investment conjuncture in this manufacture will improve.
the industry of building materials. Out of competition here - investments into brick manufacture. Above we already wrote that for the industry of building materials quite good prospects in connection with stably high volumes of input of habitation open. A brick - it is the widest upotrebimyj a building material, and the prices for it grow much faster, than on other building materials. For this reason some firms making brick mini - factories, have already concluded contracts on delivery of production to years forward.
we Will notice, however, that investment in this business - business expensive enough. Brick manufacture demands warehouse, ground grounds, a solid building, a binding to an open-cast mine. Therefore to save up money for purchase of enough expensive equipment for it is still not all: the infrastructure for factory will manage almost in 2,5 times more expensively, than actually the equipment.
investments into securities
Since this review, experts have decided to restore interrupted about one year back calculations of a share index. Then it should be thrown from - for the lowest level of liquidity of the stock market fixing only incidental transactions. Now securities market development has led to occurrence on it vysokolikvidnyh actions, mainly bank, and it provides possibility to watch an index even in a week mode. Besides, has started to develop and the secondary market of papers of the privatised enterprises though to speak about its liquidity still prematurely. Therefore while we will be limited to calculation of a share index only on banks, and under the most simple scheme: a method of type Dow Jones, that is in the form of arithmetic-mean at courses of transactions (actions of different face values have been led 1000 - to rouble advantage).
Dynamics of a share index in 1993. On supervision of experts in the market there are actions of 38 banks, however only under actions of 15 banks more or transactions are less regularly made. Thus five of these banks have declared themselves in the market only recently. Therefore the index from the beginning of year paid off only on papers of ten oldest figurants of the Russian securities market: avtovazbanka, Inkombanka, Mosbusinessbank, MAB “ Hermes “ bank “ St.-Petersburg “ Tveruniversalbanka, Finist - bank, Neftehimbanka, bank “ Gloria “ and the Siberian trading bank. The analysis of a share index allows to draw following conclusions.
the first. On the average index growth makes 1,78 % a week (the schedule see). It means that the investor who has enclosed means in bank actions, receives on the average the income at a rate of 150 % annual only at the expense of growth of a course stock value. It a little below the income under deposits. The depositary percent (calculated with the account reinvestirovanija profits - so it it should be counted percent for comparison to profitableness of securities) makes now about 200 %. However actions give also the dividend that allows to hope for the income bolshy, than under the depositary contribution.
the second. Though as a whole the share index grows, from time to time fast growth is replaced by delay or even falling of average courses. Duration of one cycle, as a rule, makes 7 - 8 weeks. And it means that short-term gamble by actions are possible.
the third. The stock market can be used for short-term extraction of the income when other actives become non-profitable. For example, in falling of a dollar exchange rate the transfer of means from the currency market on the share could bring from the end of June prior to the beginning of September of 31 % of profit (250 % annual).
the Characteristic of profitability of investments in separate bank actions. Profitability of investments in the action pays off proceeding from two components: profitableness (dividend) and change of course cost.
the dividend. In the conditions of high inflation many emitters pay the dividend under actions not once a year, and time in half a year or even every quarter. Therefore the data under dividends is led to a comparable kind counting on a year taking into account dividend capitalisation (see table 6).
Indicators of bank actions on profitableness, liquidities and stability
Bank - the emitter Face value of the action (rbl.) the Dividend (rbl.) Profitableness Liquidity Stability
Under the dividend to face value (%) On the dividend to current cost (%) At the expense of growth of course cost (%) the General profitableness (in percentage in a year) the Place on profitableness the Place on sales volume the Place on frequency of transactions the Place on liquidity the Deviation of a course from a tendency (%) the Place on stability
AvtoVAZbank 1000 700 () 70 25 100 125 12 9 2 5 +/ - 5 5
Vitabank 1000 500 (y) 317 122 400 522 1 11 7 9 +/ - 3 2
Glorijabank 1000 n. d. n. d. n. d. 230 280* 4 13 6 10 +/ - 8 9
Inkombank 10000 13000 () 130 27 370 397 2 3 3 1 +/ - 35 11
MAB “ Hermes “ 1000 1000 () 100 44 85 129* 10 2 7 3 +/ - 7,5 8
Mosbusinessbank 1000 1000 () 100 46 85 131 9 10 7 8 +/ - 35 11
Neftehimbank 1000 n. d. n. d. n. d. 115 176* 8 8 8 7 +/ - 4,5 4
Promstrojbank (SPb) 1000 3050 (z) 837 103 10 203 6 15 10 13 +/ - 25 10
Bank “ St.-Petersburg “ 1000 1800 (z) 492 86 300 386 3 7 1 1 +/ - 4 3
the Savings Bank of Russia 50000 25000 (z) 137 93 170 263 5 4 9 6 +/ - 2 1
Sibacadembank 1000 n. d. n. d. n. d. - 10 90* 14 12 8 11 +/ - 5,5 6
the Siberian trading bank 5000 n. d. n. d. n. d. 50 127* 11 1 5 2 +/ - 6 7
special design bureau - bank 1000 n. d. n. d. n. d. 0 74* 15 5 11 7 +/ - 2 1
Tveruniversalbank 1000 325 (y) 206 114 70 184 7 6 4 4 +/ - 2 1
Finistbank 10000 3000 () 30 20 80 100 13 14 7 12 +/ - 6 7
Designations: () - the dividend for 1992, (y) - the dividend for the first quarter 1993, (z) - the dividend for the first half of the year 1993
*o the assumption that the dividend following the results of a year will make 100 %, n. d. - There is no data
Will notice that dividends of this year are great enough. At Promstrojbanka - 837 % in relation to face value of the action, at bank “ St.-Petersburg “ - 492 %, at Vitabanka - 317 %, at Tveruniversalbanka - 206 %, at the Savings Bank - 137 %. The average real dividend in annual recalculation on these to five banks makes almost 400 %. We will remind that the average dividend under actions of twenty largest Moscow banks made of 100 % last year. And such growth of dividends is not casual.
the important indicator, allowing to estimate potential profitableness of the action, the relation of profit to an authorised capital stock which states an approximate estimation of the top border of payments on one action is.
Dynamics of the relation of profit of banks to the authorised capital
1991 1992 1993 (I half-year)
the Savings Bank 1,52 7,19 19,6
Mosbusinessbank 1,16 8,95 52
Promstrojbank 1,13 9,57 128
Inkombank 0,43 1,09 2,8
AvtoVAZbank 0,18 2,39 12,6
Neftehimbank 0,18 0,55 2,4
special design bureau 0,31 2,5 8,8
Tveruniversalbank - 2,19 7,2
Bank “ St.-Petersburg “ - - 35,8
In table 7 dynamics of this indicator for nine banks is resulted (on another - information are not present) from considered fifteen. The given tables testify to rather intensive growth of profitableness of banks.
in 1992 the profit of the largest banks has increased on the average in 20 times while ustavnyj the fund has increased only in 4,6 times. The profit continued to grow in the first half of the year 1993 dynamically, and total ustavnyj the fund of these banks has increased only by 40 %. Such dynamics of profit and the sizes of an authorised capital stock has led to that many banks theoretically in a condition to pay the dividends exceeding a rate of inflation. For example, the dividend under actions of Promstrojbanka (S - Petersburg) basically could make hundred twenty thousand (!) Roubles on tysjacherublevuju the action. Therefore the dividends paid by these bank - 3050 roubles for half a year - are not represented by something extraordinary. Among leaders on profit also Mosbusinessbank and “ St.-Petersburg “. Estimations of annual profit make accordingly 52 000 and 35 800 roubles on 1000 roubles of an authorised capital stock. However, in the end of the year banks can make the decision on increase in authorised capital stocks that, of course, will lower profitableness.
dynamically growing profitableness of banks, high percent on actions of those banks which already pay intermediate dividends, and also necessity (for banks) to support profitableness of actions comprehensible to investors in the conditions of the increased course quotations, allow to assume that the average dividend in relation to face value following the results of 1993 will rise approximately to 300 %. In our opinion, it is necessary to be guided by this figure at decision-making on purchase of bank actions.
As to change of a course stock value its average size (150 % annual) are defined by a share index which has been considered above. However here again the disorder is very great. Share prices of Inkombanka, Vitabanka, bank “ St.-Petersburg “ grow quickly - 300 - 400 % in annual calculation, and the Sibacadembank share price already for a long time falls.
very strong influence on dynamics of courses renders the announcement of the sizes of dividends. Sharp jump of actions of Promstrojbanka by summer of this year can serve bright to volume as acknowledgement. And low dividends for 1991 have led to a return situation with actions of AvtoVAZbanka.
quickly growing actions can be used effectively for a short-term regrouping of actives. For example, if in dollar exchange rate falling, the investor, having sold currency, would take in the end of June of shares “ St.-Petersburg “ On 3200 roubles, Vitabanka - on 1500 roubles and Neftehimbanka - on 1400 roubles also has sold them in the beginning of September accordingly on 5300, 2600, 1650 roubles, its income taking into account commission fee would make 50,5 %, and these are 590 % annual.
investments into a portfolio of real actives
In the beginning of September, having analysed beta - factors on a portfolio of real actives (about a technique see ## 28 and 32) experts have come to a conclusion about necessity urgently to get rid of lorries: beta - the factor on this position in second half of August - the beginning of September at first decreased, and then and has at all read off scale below an average on a level portfolio.
Dynamics of a portfolio of real actives in December - September, million roubles
on December, 1st on January, 1st on February, 1st on March, 1st on April, 1st on May, 1st on June, 1st on July, 1st on August, 1st on September, 1st
Dollar 36,51 50,32 72,62 86,37 110,19
Sites 36,51 45,56 56,95 80:31 108,05 155,17
VAZ 30,6 52,17
ZIL 24,2 35,15 61,58 75,73 136,8 159,99
Copper 23,8 36,08 136,8 157,04 231,47
Nickel 27,5 72,62 94,21 100,1 117,7 137,39 199,17
Aluminium 40,68 52,1 57,1 74,94 76,36 92,77 105,62 183,63
All actives 106,1 144,25 198,14 236,95 282,65 363,57 441,82 484,13 560,04 614,27
Rates of increase of cost of actives, %
By the base period, “ an operated portfolio “ (on December, 1st = 100 %) 100 136 187 223 266 343 416 456 528 579
By last month (“ an operated portfolio “) 136 137 120 119 129 121 110 116 110
Average rate of increase of the prices on all positions (“ an uncontrollable portfolio “) 126 125 116 116 122 112 109 109 103
But, as before, rates of increase of the prices for nonferrous metals continued to be accelerated steadily. Therefore the means obtained from sale of trucks, in the beginning of September it made sense to enclose in purchase of nonferrous metals - in a greater degree copper and aluminium, in smaller - nickel. Last, we will notice, on conditions of the first week of September has started to cause in experts some suspicions as beta - the factor on this position has shown a tendency to decrease.
investment conditions in the ground areas Have improved, beta - the factor on them in the beginning of September has grown. However experts connect it with short-term posleotpusknym revival of business activity which can be replaced by steady seasonal recession of demand for the earth. Therefore from portfelnyh investments into the earth while it is necessary to refrain.
and here it is necessary to pay attention to currency. beta - the factor on dollar quickly grows, and it is rather probable that in the near future it will pass for 1. Then the currency should be included in a portfolio urgently.
ANDREY - SHMAROV, ALEXANDER - VODJANOV, VLADIMIR - BESSONOV, ANDREY - GRADETSKY, TATYANA - GUROV, VALERY - FADEEV, OLGA - GAVRILOVA