The currency markets
Events of the last week in the exchange currency market have visually confirmed developed recurrence of its development. After enough long stabilisation exchange quotations have begun a new confident ascension. For the surveyed period (from February, 17 till February, 24th) a dollar exchange rate has raised on 90 points, having reached last Thursday a point in 1657 rbl./ $. Essential increase of volumes of operations on the stock exchange, during almost all the week long steadily exceeding $100 million a day became the Evidence of growth of activity of participants of the currency market. In the near future exchange quotations, most likely, will keep a tendency to growth though rates of their increase, most likely, will be slowed down.
the Central Bank has made that wanted. But it is far not that could
Obvious signs of change developed with the beginning of February of a conjuncture of the Moscow exchange currency market were showed already at the first auctions of last week. Though sales volumes last Monday remained low ($50,2 million), the dollar exchange rate has moved off dead centre and has raised on 6 points to level in 1573 rbl./ $. The further course of events any more did not leave doubts in acquisition by exchange quotations of a new tendency to growth. Activity of participants of the auctions (first of all, buyers) smoothly accrued; rates of increase of a course were accordingly accelerated also. Its maximum - 39 points for the auctions - has had on Wednesday (this very day, by the way, the week record of volumes of operations - $144,9 million has been fixed also). Next day the course has grown on 33 points and the mark in 1657 rbl./ $ became a result of surveyed week.
Growth of activity of participants of the currency market looks quite natural. First of all, it is necessary to remember that within the second decade of February volumes of operations on the stock exchange were at the lowest level. As a result, hardly only the currency market conjuncture has started to change, as potentially existing demand from banks was splashed out on a stock exchange. Serious help to it there was a simultaneous growth of client demands for the currency purchase, caused, in particular, future increase in import tariffs which, predictably, will take place on March, 15th. It is rather probable that in the near future on a stock exchange the material reinforcement from the market of state credit obligations showing today much smaller possibilities for short-term speculative game, rather than its currency colleague will arrive.
Change of a conjuncture of the currency market was so obvious, what even the Central bank practically did not interfere with fast growth of a course and tried to provide only more or its less systematic increase. Under the certificate of dealers of commercial banks, the Central Bank left on the auctions already with the set course reference point, and during session began carrying out of interventions only after exchange quotations closely approached to the planned mark. Similar strategy allows the Central Bank to provide as much as possible controllable succession of events in the currency market and to save considerable means which would be required in present conditions for artificial deduction of a course. Actually, according to the experts, total volume of interventions of the Central Bank during the auctions last week (excepting Friday) has made no more
Considering told, it is possible to predict than $50 million that in the near future exchange quotations will keep a tendency to growth. However rates of their increase, most likely, will a little be slowed down. It is not excluded, in particular, that strong enough resistance a dollar exchange rate will find in area 1700 rbl./ $.
Against so rapid development of events in the Moscow currency market the course of the auctions at regional stock exchanges was much quieter. During almost all the week long participants of the auctions rather inertly reacted to dynamics of the Moscow dollar exchange rate (drawing 1 see). An exception has made, perhaps, only Sankt - the Petersburg currency stock exchange - by a weekend rates of increase of quotations there have considerably exceeded Moscow, and on Thursday a dollar exchange rate, having jumped at once on 71 point, has made 1686 rbl./ $. However as a whole, we will repeat, dynamics of regional quotations was far not adequate to their movement on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange that speaks as traditional inertness of regional currency stock exchanges, and it is ready smaller resource potentials of their clients.
Dollar, it and in Africa dollar. Rouble, it everywhere rouble
Also, as well as in Moscow, passions at the Interbank currency stock exchange of republic Belarus all the week long did not abate. The dollar market rate in Belarus for a week has grown with 8185 to 9120 Belarus roubles for one dollar, and exchange quotations of the Russian rouble skaknuli even more abruptly - with 5,17 to 6,19 Belarus roubles for one Russian. Surprisingly that despite preliminary consultations of Russia and Belarus concerning association of monetary systems (which, by the way, go at full speed), the Belarus bankers prefer to national currency dollar and the Russian rouble. We will remind that the course of recalculation of non-cash Belarus roubles in the Russian is preliminary co-ordinated at level of 3,8 Belarus roubles for one Russian that almost in one and a half time below a current market rate (see in the previous reviews more in detail).
About it one of dealers of the Belarus currency stock exchange has thoughtfully noticed that dollar, it and in Africa dollar, and while they (the prime minister - ministers of Russia and Belarus meant-) work there (i.e. at bilateral negotiations), we will work here (at a stock exchange) . The essence of this work is brightly expressed in revaluation of the Russian rouble in comparison with dollar. In particular, cross-country - the course of the Russian and Belarus roubles calculated through exchange quotations of dollar in Russia and Belarus, by a weekend has grown all to 5,5 Belarus roubles for one Russian (a market rate - 6,19:1), that is one dollar in Belarus for the Russian buyer in a weekend cost only 1473 Russian roubles. This paradox that the Belarus banks on - former do not trust in possible association of monetary systems of two countries speaks, and the National bank of Belarus has considerably reduced the presence at a local currency stock exchange.
Overestimate the Russian rouble and in Moldova. If direct quotations of rouble at the Interbank currency stock exchange Moldova on Wednesday have made 408 rbl./ pour, cross-country - the course calculated through exchange quotations of dollar, there were on a mark 417 rbl./ pour. Most likely, in Moldova the seasonal factor of growth of demand for the Russian roubles, and also necessity of repayment " has already affected; gas debts which influence on a condition of an exchange conjuncture of the currency markets of republics of the former USSR in detail analyzed in the review before last.
opposite, exchange dealers in Latvia and Estonia do not feed illusions concerning prospects of strengthening of the Russian rouble. On Monday at the auctions of Riga Pareks - bank the course of the Russian rouble in relation to dollar has reached a point 1607 rbl./ $ (on Monday on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange one dollar cost 1573 roubles). And at currency auction of the Tallinn international stock exchange the dollar average rate has made 1656 rbl./ $. Estonian dealers did not begin to stop on reached and on Wednesday at currency auction of Estonian stock exchange have established a new record - 1659 rbl./ $, practically having foreseen results of the auctions in Moscow on February, 24th.
it would Seem that the Russian rouble is not popular and in Ukraine. In the Kiev market of interbank operations (the Ukrainian interbank currency stock exchange does not hold the auctions four months) quotations of the Russian rouble continue to decrease and last week were in limits 16 - 22 karbovantsev/ rbl. while in the end of January one rouble cost nearby 25 karbovantsev. However the plan of legislative works of the Ukrainian parliament for the next weeks can clear a situation. The Ukrainian members of parliament plan to resolve, in particular, a problem of non-payments which, as it is known, and contain growth of a course of foreign currencies. By various estimations, the mutual debts of the Ukrainian enterprises make from 40 to 80 trln karbovantsev (in recalculation under current market quotations of dollar in Ukraine - $1 - 2 mlrd). Thereupon it is supposed to spend issue at the rate to 10 trln karbovantsev, as will lead to the further growth of a course of the Russian rouble in Ukraine.
at the Gold eagle has appeared serious the competitor
In the conditions of sharp growth of a market rate of dollar after its fortnight stabilisation on almost invariable mark it would be strange to expect other behaviour from frozen cash quotations.
it is valid, on Monday the dollar exchange rate in the Moscow black market has raised after exchange quotations on the average on 10 points and has made in the basic points of currency trade 1580 rbl./ $ at buying up and 1590 rbl./ $ at sale. Thus smooth enough growth of a market rate has caused not less smooth increase and cash indicators. As a result in the first days of week the difference between a market rate and quotations of street speculators in foreign currency did not exceed 1 - 1,5 %. However jump of exchange quotations almost on 40 points has compelled speculators in foreign currency to reconsider the course policy sharply. Sharp growth of a margin between courses of buying up and sale of the cash currency which has increased to 50 points became result to that, first of all, and also the usual aspiration of retail dealers whenever possible to be insured from the further growth of a course and to reduce quantity of operations on sale. As a result by a weekend the dollar exchange rate at speculators in foreign currency of the black market has averaged 1650 rbl./ $ at buying up and 1700 rbl./ $ at sale, having increased in comparison with level of Monday on 70 - 110 points.
absence how many - nibud appreciable displays of an agiotage from clients of exchange offices became the Basic difference of the last week from the usual scenario of succession of events during the periods of so sharp fluctuations of currency quotations (the dollar exchange rate in the Moscow commercial banks has grown for a week on the average on 115 points). Obviously, bankers and their clients were ready for a long time already to the next lifting of currency quotations. And as market rate stabilisation was the unique objective reason constraining last month the further falling of a rouble exchange rate in the market of cash sales, quite naturally what exactly its growth on the expired week and has pushed bankers to lift a dollar exchange rate more than on 100 points. As a result by a weekend the dollar average rate in exchange offices has made 1640 rbl./ $ at purchase and 1711 rbl./ $ at sale. Higher rates of increase of a cash dollar exchange rate in comparison with speed of increase of non-cash quotations by a weekend have led to difference increase between them with 0,6 - 0,9 % to 2 - 4 %. Besides, also the margin between courses of buying up and sale of currencies almost has twice increased. In aggregate these factors have allowed bankers to increase essentially the incomes not only of carrying out valjutoobmennyh operations, but also from gamble on a difference of exchange and cash courses. And usual during the periods of so sharp growth of a dollar exchange rate the increase in disorder of bank quotations has allowed currency speculators to get profit, using a positive difference between a purchase course in one bank and a course of its sale by another.
a little the situation in the market of cash sales in other Russian regions differently developed. It seems that regional bankers have not forgotten a lesson received in second half of January when being guided by prompt growth of exchange quotations they have excited a course to space level, and after decrease in exchange indicators have sat down to count up losses. This time regional bankers showed care and till Wednesday inclusive occupied, basically, waiting attitudes. However the regional market of cash sales has seriously stirred up on Thursday when clients of banks nevertheless have believed in inevitability of growth of dollar, and in many cities at exchange offices turns have started to be built. To the greatest degree it has concerned Siberian region - there increase valjutoobmennyh quotations was the most appreciable. For example, bank Mountain Altai (Barnaul) for a week has increased a dollar exchange rate by 265 points.
in the Russian cash market past week there was one more kind soft Currencies - the Kirghiz catfish which exchange was started by bank the Russian credit . The catfish became the seventh soft the currency quoted by this bank. An exchange rate of the Kirghiz currency on 26 points below current quotations of the Central Bank of Russia and a little below market quotations in Kyrgyzstan. The following currency, for work with which now prepares the Russian credit becomes Moldavian pour. But low degree of security leev from fakes can become an essential obstacle to start realisation of operations with cash Moldavian currency.
while the Russian banks show the increasing interest to currencies of republics of the former USSR, the state financial structures of these countries please the citizens that with input in the change reference (as it has occurred recently in Armenia), release of collection samples of national monetary units. In particular, inhabitants of Turkmenistan henceforth can admire a profile solntsepodobnogo turkmenbashi Saparmurada Niyazov, the advantage rapped out on a gold coin 1000 manat. Comparing a new coin (let out, by the way, in number of 10 thousand) to such collection samples known in world practice, as American the Gold eagle it is necessary to wish only to Mister Niyazov more often to wave wings that the course Turkmen manata, making now 30 - 32 manat/ $ at an official parity 1,99 manat/ $, did not fall even more low.
the Dollar exchange rate to national currencies according to REUTER for February, 24th.
*Ξτθφθΰλόνϋι a Central Bank rate of Russia.
** Dollars for EKJU.
In brackets changes in comparison with February, 17th are given.
Currency GROUP - DAILY: VYACHESLAV - SIROTKIN, ELENA - BAZHENOV, YURY - KATSMAN, YURY - KALASHNOV, IGOR - SHALDYBIN (the head of group). Ph./ a fax: (095 158 - 69 - 09