The review of a conjuncture of the financial market
the Last week has brought on the financial market appreciable destabilization. The currency segment became the disturber of calmness - last Thursday the dollar exchange rate at the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange auctions has grown at once on 125 points, and dealers have switched the basic attention to operations in the currency market. A consequence of it of a steel growth of volumes of operations and the prices on “ short “ money and, on the contrary, reduction of a turn and decrease in quotations of state credit obligations. However, deterioration of market condition of bonds hardly will be long - the course costs which have resulted decrease in papers growth of their profitableness should cause new inflow of means for this market.
the Central Bank has set to dollar a new trajectory of growth
Certainly, basic attention both bank dealers, and experts last week were involved with a situation in the currency market. After enough long period concerning equal dynamics of exchange quotations last Thursday at the auctions of the Moscow interbank currency stock exchange the dollar exchange rate has jumped up at once on 125 points to 2460 rbl./ $. It is natural that such result has caused at once set of assumptions concerning its reasons.
the first arising explanation of such succession of events - a sharp overflow on the currency market of means from parallel sectors, in particular from the market of state credit obligations. At least, outwardly in it specified that course jump has occurred right after auctions on placing of the next issues of three - and the six-monthly bonds which have passed accordingly on September, 20th and 21. Considering that at equal volumes of release of bonds (on 1,1 trln), demand for three-monthly state credit obligations for 45 % has exceeded level of their offer, and volume of demands for purchase six-monthly, on the contrary, has appeared on 16 % below the offer, theoretically it could specify in an overflow of means for the currency market. Namely, having bought on September, 20th traditionally more attractive three-monthly bonds (having used for this purpose and the means released at repayment carried out this very day polutoratrillionnogo 14 - go release), banks could prefer to an investment of the formed surplus of money resources in six-monthly state credit obligations its direction on the currency market.
however in practice this assumption does not find sufficient acknowledgement - dollar exchange rate growth has occurred on September, 22nd at rather invariable (in comparison with fixed the day before) demand. On the contrary, the currency offer was essentially reduced, as has caused formation enormous ($145,95 million) rupture between volume of demands for purchase and sale of currency means, that is occurrence of a necessary condition of fast growth of a course. However a sufficient condition for this purpose even so essential difference yet is not - at fast data of balance of supply and demand rates of increase of a course objectively were much smaller. The usual role of the Central bank also consisted in management for balance achievements (at the expense of interventions) just as regulator of dynamics of a course. However this time the Central Bank (at least, outwardly) has preferred to stand aside. Most likely, “ autumn deviation “ the Central Bank, before rather densely supervising situation development in the currency market, also was planned - predicted acceleration of inflation could demand course deducing on new higher trajectory of growth. And has occurred. After quite explainable in such cases of some recoil of a dollar exchange rate next day, on Monday and Tuesday stable growth of quotations has renewed (the schedule) see.
course Growth has worsened a conjuncture of the financial market
the Situation in a currency segment against remaining deficiency of available assets has essentially debalanced a conjuncture of the financial market as a whole. In particular, owing to sharp increase in efficiency of game at short-term rate fluctuations of dollar demand on " again has increased; short “ money, essential enough growth of their cost became result of that. For example, in the Interbank financial house the rate under credits for the term from 1 till 7 days has risen for a week on 14 points to 107 % annual. And even in spite of the fact that the sales volume of credits for this term has made 56 mlrd roubles, deficiency of the offer of this category of monetary resources remained notable. Still the big deficiency “ short “ Money it was observed in MBO “ Orgbank “ where credits for the term of 1 - 7 days have been sold on 12,8 mlrd roubles. In these conditions the basic attention of clients “ Orgbanka “ it has been directed in sector of credit resources for from a week about one the month which volume of realisation has made 31,9 mlrd roubles. Cost of this category of credits in “ Orgbanke “ practically has not changed in comparison with level of week before last and remained at level of 106 % annual. Total volume of realisation of three-monthly credits in MFD and “ Orgbanke “ last week has made 21,54 mlrd roubles, and their cost on both credit platforms has made 121 % annual.
has considerably worsened last week and market condition of state credit obligations. In - the first, the sales volume of bonds was reduced. In - the second, on all releases of state credit obligations within a week falling of course cost and profitableness growth to repayment have been noted. For example, on the last 19 - mu to release the course has fallen so that their profitableness has appeared below average following the results of primary auction. At the same time deterioration of market condition of state credit obligations, according to experts, will be short. Current profitableness of state credit obligations (which, in particular, exceeds credit rates) can provoke inflow of means to this segment of the financial market. For example, already today there can be effective a game on short releases of state credit obligations (it also participants of the market perfectly understand - the greatest volume of means goes on purchase of bonds 15 - j series). However increase of interest of investors to operations in the market of state credit obligations (and, accordingly, growth of course cost of papers) is possible only under condition of alignment of a conjuncture of the currency market - otherwise the currency market remains for dealers priority. Most likely, in the near future it is necessary to expect certain steps to stabilisation of the monetary market from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. For example, under the information “ Interfax “ the Ministry of Finance intends to spend extraordinary auction of three-monthly state credit obligations - obvious on purpose to distract attention of banks from a currency segment of the financial market.
access to cheap credits banks
Besides a disbalance of efficiency of operations observed now in various sectors of the financial market have not all, there are also appreciable regional distinctions in the prices for financial actives. To the greatest degree it concerns the market of interbank credits. In particular, in Petersburg MFD last week the interest rate under credits for the term from 1 till 7 days has made 75 % annual at volume of realisation 1,3 mlrd roubles. Cost of the monetary resources realised for the term from week about one month though has raised in comparison with a week before last on 12,5 points, has made 96,1 % annual. As to three-monthly credits their price in PMFD remains hardly above 115 % annual. Thus, on all spectrum of terms of crediting understating of rates in Petersburg in comparison with the Moscow level is observed.
at the same time the regional credit market possesses much smaller capacity in comparison with the Moscow. In particular, within two last weeks the productive auctions are spent, besides PMFD, only in South Russian MFD (there last week 1 mlrd roubles of three-monthly credits has been realised under 115 % annual). As to credit platforms of Siberia and Ural Mountains here throughout long time the calm which principal cause is the problem of a non-return of credits remains. In particular, at the South Ural stock exchange its administration explains absence of operations by the rigid requirements which are put forward by creditors in relation to borrowers. As a result the circle of potential participants of the auctions is sharply narrowed - practically in auctions JUUFB can accept only the Chelyabinsk banks.
More or less objective disproportions are observed and in the off-exchange regional credit market - the disorder of rates under three-monthly credits in commercial banks makes today 20 - 25 points. For example, banks of Kostroma, Novgorod, Leningrad areas and Stavropol Territory offer three-monthly credits under 100 - 105 % annual. In It is central - Chernozemnom and Northern regions cost of such resources makes 110 - 115 % annual, and in the Kaliningrad, Smolensk, Tver and Ivanovo areas - 120 - 125 %.