Rus News Journal

Smolnyj arranges reliability of forecasts

In St.-Petersburg passes 13 - I session of the Commission on the basic systems of the World meteorological organisation (VMO). 250 weather forecasters take part In its work from 140 countries of the world. For nine days they intend to develop model of global system of the notification which would co-ordinate work of all hydrometeorological services of a planet. Session which will last nine days, the head of Federal Agency of hydrometeorology and monitoring of environment of Russia Alexander Bedritsky who is also president VMO supervises. So representative forum passes in Russia for the first time, and working out of the international system of the notification about approaching cataclysms becomes its main theme. The theme has been confirmed after a recent destructive tsunami in Indian ocean which has opened the sad fact: numerous victims could be avoided, know the population about approaching accident. The matter is that on movement of anticyclones the Petersburg weather forecasters for days have predicted a tsunami, however their caution hung out on the Internet has noticed nobody.
one more theme of conference concerns global warming. According to secretary general VMO Michel Zharro if earlier the temperature on the Earth raised approximately on 0,6 degrees for a century in the XXI-st century it can raise on 2,6 degrees. To predict consequences of such jump difficultly as, according to mister Zharro, at the time of a glacial age the temperature on a planet was on the average below present all on 6 degrees.
meteorologists also will discuss a question connected with reliability of forecasts. It is curious that past Tuesday this theme was lifted also by the mayor of Moscow Yury Luzhkov who has declared the termination of budgetary financing of capital meteobureau: the authorities do not want to incur losses from - for not come true forecasts. From - for them, according to mister Luzhkov, the mayoralties should be expelled in vain on streets the harvest technics. The mayor has noticed that financing will renew only after the point on direct financial responsibility of weather forecasters will be included in the contract with a weather service for the losses caused to a capital economy by incorrect forecasts.
in Petersburg similar thoughts still come to nobody to a head. All interrogated officials of Smolnogo have declared that are not going to show yet ultimatums to the Petersburg hydrometeorological centre. Only the deputy director of State Unitary Enterprise Spetstrans Vasily Hvostov has noticed that sometimes weather forecasters have inexact forecasts, when instead of the promised two centimetres of snow all drop out twenty . And, though at Spetstransa there is a number of offers on improvement of quality of forecasts, to reconsider the contract with weather forecasters the enterprise does not gather.
the Chief of department of forecasts of local hydrometeorological centre Alexander Kolesov has in turn declared that as a whole work of its division answers the requirement of customers. as to short-term forecasts their reliability exceeds 90 percent, - mister Kolesov has noted. - I do not think that science development will allow to improve this indicator essentially in the near future. The nature - it all - taki is incomprehensible . Claims of mister Luzhkov to the Moscow weather forecasters need to be assorted separately, the scientist considers. In its opinion, the geographical position of Moscow is that that it more often, than Petersburg, is submitted to influence of fast southern cyclones that really complicates a weather forecast.
MICHAEL of HAMMERS