The currency auctions in Moscow
Current week has been noted by acquisition by dynamics of the Moscow market rate of dollar concerning steady character. Having been late on Monday on a mark of the previous auctions (990 rbl./ $), quotations have raised next day on 5 points to 995 rbl./ $. The Same result has been fixed on Wednesday, and yesterday a dollar exchange rate, having risen on 3 points, has made 998 rbl./ $. Steady enough were also volumes of operations on the stock exchange, throughout almost all the week long stably exceeding level in $90 million Thus, observers have all bases to believe that the exchange currency market has entered a stage of a systematic dollar rate increase, and possible fluctuations of quotations will have in the near future only short-term tactical character.
the Yesterday`s auctions at the Moscow interbank currency stock exchange have been noted by the next tactical change in alignment of forces of participants of the currency market. Against the general decrease in level of activity the greatest falling has undergone the offer of currency means: having reduced at once to $12,19 million, the volume of demands for sale has made $85,33 million much less appreciable there was a decrease in a level of demand on currency: the volume of demands was reduced in comparison with the auctions on Wednesday to $1,64 million and $91,26 million Excess of demand over the offer on $5,43 million equaled it has appeared sufficient for increase in exchange quotations at 3 points in comparison with results of the previous auctions and as a result the dollar exchange rate has been fixed on a mark 998 rbl./ $. Thus the majority of buyers have apprehended course increase easy enough: from the auctions it has been removed demands for purchase only for the sum $20 thousand, and the sales volume has made $91,24 million that on $6,28 million there is less than level of operations of last auctions.
According to observers, character and results of the past for a week of the auctions at the Moscow interbank currency stock exchange testify to the introduction of the currency market into a stage of systematic growth of a dollar exchange rate. Most likely, this regularity is reached, basically, at the expense of actions of the Central bank by which the daily volume of the offer of currency means now is regulated. And a Central Bank overall objective as leading participant of the exchange currency market now is course deduction, and maintenance of as less as possible agiotage succession of events at a currency stock exchange and, as consequence, a protection of quotations from sharp jumps faster not.
About that such jumps are possible, moods of buyers of the currency means more than once lately undertaking massed attack to rouble (attempt - truth was brightest of them, perhaps, unsuccessful - to lift a course by powerful rouble intervention on September, 1st when the level of demand has much more exceeded a mark in $100 million) unequivocally testify. In favour of antirouble moods of participants of the currency market says also that fact that in case of increase of a course during the auctions the volume of demands for purchase is reduced very slightly (so was, for example, yesterday).
Similar moods are supported with expected issue and compensatory injections in economy and, accordingly, increase of rates of inflation. On the other hand, buyers are influenced also by possible fast increase of import duties that forces them to realise for the purpose of preservation of the developed efficiency of import contracts as soon as possible. In these conditions the tactics selected the Central Bank is represented absolutely logical: considering its intervention potential, the decision of a problem of the planned growth of a course to it, perhaps, under force.