Government social policy
the Yesterday`s round table “ the Policy of incomes and population social protection “ has coincided with an exit new “ social “ the decree of the president “ About indexation of the state pensions in the Russian Federation in September and October, 1994 and sources of its financing “. It is possible to consider this coincidence symbolical: both the official power, and political periphery began to show interest to social policy questions. Thus in their approach more and more it starts to be shown sotsial - democratic accent which gives the grounds to speak about gradual displacement “ to the left “ a vector of economic policy of the government. However on a question, whether becomes sotsial - democratic model the future of Russia, it will be possible to answer only in a month - after the session of the government planned for September on social policy.
the Decree of the president has put if not a point, then a comma in more and more brisk discussion on social security problems. One month ago in extremely formalized kind it was splashed out on the State Duma tribune - at discussion of the bill of indexation of the state pensions. Then the question stood so: or indexation of all pensions in 1,51 times (on what insisted profile parliamentary committees), or their increase only on 15 % (the government offer). The parliamentary variant of increase of the minimum pension to 28 700 roubles would demand additional expenses from the budget of the Pension fund at a rate of 1,1 trln roubles a month, or 5,5 trln till the end of the year. The governmental variant of indexation demanded much more modest financing - only 1,6 trln roubles for five forthcoming months.
refusal of the president to sign the law passed in a parliamentary variant has given the grounds for assumptions of that, as steadily rigid financial course further will remain. The variant of the indexation which have appeared in the Kremlin in the beginning of August, apparently, confirmed this tendency: the decree about indexation of pensions since August, 1st, 1994 unequivocally confirmed 15 - percentage increase of pensions. Last decree has essentially softened this decision, having replaced with its step scheme: in August of pension are indexed in 1,15 times, in September - in 1,3, and since October - on 51 %. By estimations, it will manage to fund in 2,4 bln.
From the point of view of the practical economy, all it is of interest only that sense what will be possible inflationary consequences. It is necessary to recognise their inevitability directly. According to the commission of the president, in September the government will be compelled to give to the Pension fund the loan for the indexation payment which source becomes, obviously, the Central Bank credit. Thus it is not known, whether the debts of the state to a Pension fund, reached 1 trln roubles will be extinguished. If there will be a simultaneous repayment and public debts, the inflationary potential of the presidential decision will be realised. However, there will be it to a time log in 4 - 5 months, that is in the beginning of next year.
that gives the grounds for the forecast about strengthening “ social orientirovannosti “ economy? This question was answered with participants of the round table, organised Ministry of Labor and club “ Realists “. Dynamics of inflationary indicators resulted by the director of Institute of the prices of Ministry of Economics by Vladimir Torbinym, testifies to a steady tendency of financial stabilisation: In I quarter of this year growth of retail prices has made 13 %, in the second - 7,7 %, in the third - will increase to 10 %, and in the fourth - will fall to 6,8 %. As a whole for a year the monetary weight will increase no more than in 2,5 - 3 times. The forecast for the next year is even more optimistical - 60 - a percentage annual rate of inflation. It is obvious that the president could make the decision on an indulgence in the field of social security.
other plan arguments are resulted by experts of Ministry of Labor. According to Lydia Anikeevoj, in the nearest year - two pension ages will reach rather small generation born in days of war that will cause up to 2005 favorable in the macroeconomic relation a tendency: the able-bodied population will grow, and the number of pensioners - to be reduced. It is necessary for using, in opinion Anikeevoj, for “ alignments of incomes “ these groups of the population. Besides after 2005 the return tendency will prevail. Similar arguments can have crucial importance by consideration by parliament in the forthcoming autumn of a package “ social “ bills. They can sound and at the session of the government devoted to prospects of social policy planned for autumn.
VICTOR - MILLERS