The share price of the oil companies
Yesterday became one of the most improbable from the point of view of dynamics of share prices in the secondary market. When in the morning brokers have dispatched in mass media faxes with the stock quotes established on Thursday, analysts have been amazed by fantastic growth of courses of securities of the whole group of the largest Russian privatised enterprises, first of all the oil companies and aluminium industrial complexes. On the average stock quotes of the oil companies have grown on 30 - 40 % for one day. Approximately rates of increase of share prices of the largest aluminium industrial complexes were similar.
Experts notice that almost for the first time in almost semi-annual history of existence of the secondary off-exchange share market quotations publicly declared by brokers have appeared almost completely corresponding to courses of transactions with the same actions (till now brokers intentionally underestimated publicly extended quotations in comparison with the prices of real transactions). Experts regard this fact as a sign of increasing volumes portfelnyh foreign investments into the Russian actions, and also a symbol of growth of liquidity of a secondary securities market of the privatised enterprises.
share index ASP - Dzheneral counted under quotations of the most liquid actions of 44 largest Russian companies, on Thursday has grown at once on 16,47 % and was closed all on 9 points below a mark in 300 points. Thus, the index not only has reached an absolute maximum for all history of its calculation, but also has tested the most considerable in the history jump in relation to previous day. This unique movement of share index ASP - Dzheneral has been caused by sharp increase in the off-exchange quotations declared largest market - makers. So, an average share price “ Kominefti “ on Thursday has grown for 8000 rbl. and has made 29400 rbl. at purchase against 46200 rbl. at sale. Share price jump " was even more considerable; Kogalymneftegaza “. The course of purchase of these papers has been increased a market - makers to 105 thousand rbl. or more than by 30 %. Also events in the share market " were rather interesting yesterday; Nojabrskneftegaza “ which course has grown for a day almost twice and has made 23100 rbl. at purchase against 37800 rbl. at sale. Thus actions “ Nojabrskneftegaza “ seemingly, become the second after actions “ Kominefti “ “ oil “ papers on which the largest a market - makers will risk to conduct public bilateral quotations.
however growth of index ASP - Dzheneral would not be yesterday so considerable if it has not been strengthened by predicted jump of stock quotes of large aluminium industrial complexes. Not casually one week ago quotations of these papers were are temporarily suspended by a number large a market - makers, in particular, the company “ Alinvest “. Brokers obviously preferred to buy up silently great volumes of actions, but, obviously, arisen deficiency “ aluminium “ actions in the market has forced brokers to push upwards public quotations. As the indirect certificate of probable placing in the market of the large order for buying up of actions of aluminium industrial complexes that fact that to quotations " can serve; aluminium “ Actions in August the brokers traditionally serving foreign investors who till now were not working with securities of aluminium industrial complexes have started. The share price of Krasnoyarsk aluminium factory has grown yesterday on the average for 1350 rbl. and has made 7350 rbl. Even more considerably - almost twice - the price of purchase of actions of the Sayansk aluminium factory, the made 33600 rbl.
Experts has grown notice that close rapprochement of publicly extended prices with real courses of the transactions, concluded a market - makers in the conditions of strict confidentiality became important qualitative line of the jump which has occurred yesterday of stock quotes declared by brokers. By estimations if in the beginning of August courses of purchase declared by brokers, for example, oil actions could be more than twice below real courses of transactions with these papers already yesterday this distinction has appeared within 10 %.
This fact, according to experts, testifies to sharp increase in liquidity of the secondary share market of the privatised enterprises, and also about formation of really excessive demand on “ hot “ “ oil “ actions, and actions of some other large privatised enterprises. Presence of such demand, in opinion, could be caused only sharp inflow of foreign investments. According to some brokers, only in III quarter in the action of the Russian companies foreign financial managers will enclose not less than $400 million, that is nearby 2/ 3 from total amount portfelnyh foreign investments into the first half of the year 1994.
SERGEY - ASPIN