Valentine Bogatyryov: “ the Coalition government will exist not for long “
The day before in Bishkek the press - club has taken place a round table « Kyrgyzstan: Results of elections for politicians and citizens » with participation of visible public figures, politicians, journalists, legal experts and representatives of the non-governmental organisations. Discussion of results of the last parliamentary elections and the forecast for the near future became a meeting main objective. Despite all interactivity of action, attention of the gathered it has been chained not so much to discussion, how much to reports acted on it of Valentine Bogatyryov heading an analytical consortium « Prospect » heads of legal clinic « Adilet » Cholpon Dzhakupovoj, and also the head of Presidential Administration Emilja Kaptagaeva.
the People do not trust the power
to the First a word expert Valentine Bogatyryov took. In the beginning of the report head of a consortium focused attention on results of national voting.
– it is impossible to name results of elections unexpected, – there has begun the performance Valentine Borisovich. – And not only because sociological polls have almost completely foretold its exod regarding an appearance and electoral preferences. Results of elections have really reflected that situation which has developed in the field of political orientation and preferences of the population. The essence of this situation consists that, despite high political degree, despite importance of the future of the country, only half of population of Kyrgyzstan has considered necessary to come to voting boxes. No business before voting existed the rest. In it two reasons are hidden. One of them is connected with trust low level to the power on a broader scale, the second – with the sceptical relation to the concrete political parties participating in elections.
head « has underlined; Prospects » and other fact, concerning elections: 15 from 29 parties participating in elections, and 2 from 5 accordingly passed in parliament, have appeared after April events. As consequence, Bogatyryov has sounded a conclusion that the party system in the country, despite 20 - summer practice, cannot while to apply for the status proxy, and in respect of consequences, and legitimate representation of interests of voters. We have as a result of elections experimental pilot parliament, representation not the people, and political elite.
Pre-election fairy tales will differ from a postelective reality
– anybody does not have doubts that the real policy of the power will differ from pre-election rhetoric of leaders of political forces, – Valentine Bogatyryov has underlined before gathered. – under their pre-election texts it is possible to judge what and as they will be occupied, having come to a country government. Absolutely precisely all know that nobody will sell an electricity to the people under the cost price as it is impossible. Same concerns also the sizes of interest rates under credits. That fact that such promises were given, allows to draw conclusions on character of the future policy of those or other forces. And this line can be carried to all parties behind an exception « Ar - Namysa » For which the program has been very worked.
has especially noticed during a round table the head of a consortium and that elections have passed under the badge of strong Prorussian paternalistskih motives. As he said, parties competed in the one who will more often go to Moscow and at whom the interlocutor will appear more significant. This fact does not need to be accepted for really Prorussian positions, at least, some leaders. Gamble on electoral preferences which have come nearer to Prorussian as a result of the conflict in the south is available simply. However, according to Bogatyryov, this factor has not played crucial importance in a total apportion.
– if kyrgyzstantsy really supported Russia, party « Ar - Namys » would collect more votes, – the expert has underlined. – however polls to elections show the same result, as now, that is an order of 8 percent for « Ar - Namys ». Besides, if Russia so strongly influenced results, party « Ata - Zhurt » would not occupy 1 place following the results of voting because to elections the embassy of the Russian Federation has acted for some time with a note of protest concerning this party.
the expert and not less acute problems, such as present meetings, and what they can turn back for the government Has concerned. In particular, Bogatyryov has noticed that now there is a force, capable to disturb to measured work of the government and Zhogorku Kenesha – they are supporters of party « Butun Kyrgyzstan » defying discrepancies in lists of voters, and also other parties which lost on elections and have initially recognised the loss, now again intoned voting by the forged. The third force Bogatyryov named relatives of victims in April. At a coalition of all three these groups, according to the expert, before the government of Kyrgyzstan again there can be a political crisis threat.
for That to wait from politicians in the near future?
Speaking about forecasts for the future, Valentine Bogatyryov has noted some factors which can negatively affect country immediate prospects. In - the first, it is safety of party structure and the parliament nature.
– the matter is that the available Law « About regulations of Zhogorku Kenesha » enters into the contradiction with the new Constitution, – the head of a consortium « explains; Prospect ». – it is not obligatory to Deputies to adhere the activity to this or that fraction. Can reach that fractional preferences of deputies will not depend on from what party they have got to parliament. We can have at all those fractions and their structure, is rather than specified in the party list of deputies. In this case the coalition can fail. Parliamentary fractions are not generated yet, it is impossible to carry on negotiations for coalition creation.
the second factor had been named absence of negotiations about the program of actions of the future association. It means that in the near future there will be no control over an event from parliament. At present the parties which have ostensibly won elections, as a matter of fact, simply divide portfolios. At last, the nominee choice on fast of premieres - the minister can become a determinative. In particular, it has been stipulated that wishing to become those the weight, unlike struggle for an armchair of the speaker – posts technical, saving in itself regional balance and, according to the experts, loud political career comprehensible to start on the eve of presidential election.
– As a way out from a situation I see appointment to the post of the prime minister of the person neutral which would work half a year on this fast, during given time of party - the winner should refuse this fast and some political ambitions, – Valentine Bogatyryov has explained.
if to speak about more long-term prospects the expert is inclined to consider that in the future it is not necessary to count especially on the coalition government as this association, under its forecasts, not for long will exist. It is necessary to leave one party as the coalition will collapse. For this reason Bogatyryov has urged the future members of parliament to create the union not less than from four parties.
to coalitions – to be?!
told by Valentine Bogatyryov the head of Presidential Administration Emil Kaptagaev was called to bring the Original result. However its conclusions with conclusions of the head of a consortium as a result have appeared various. In particular, Kaptagaev has disagreed that fractions in parliament will not be steady.
– on Tuesday evening at a meeting of president Rozy Otunbaevoj with leaders of the parties which have preliminary passed in Zhogorku Kenesh, the arrangement on a recognition of elections, &ndash has been reached; Kaptagaev has shared the opinion. – Yes, process of grinding in of parties in parliament will go difficult, however I am assured that fractions in parliament will be steady. The main thing for us – to reach irreversibility of democratic transformations and stability of system and the state.
after these words the head of administration has slightly deviated the subject put by moderators and has decided to sum up Provisional government work for passed half a year. In particular, he has underlined that the authorities have fulfilled the promises – have returned the privatised state enterprises to the people, have lowered tariffs and have eliminated family - clan principles in state structures. Besides, VP and the president have provided the democratic parliamentary elections first in Kyrgyzstan and referendum carrying out, despite constant threats of revolutions and occurrence of local conflicts. Coming back to a subject of elections, Kaptagaev has underlined that voting process has shown the facts pressure from external forces, to be exact financings from the outside, and also influences of certain groupings on a course of events. However, despite it, elections he named really democratic and without application of an administrative resource.
with theses of Emilja Kaptagaeva has hastened to disagree acting after Cholpon Dzhakupova. As she said, democracy in Kyrgyzstan really rises on feet and opens new possibilities, however it is not necessary to forget about such concept, as « legality ». It is unusual, according to the head of legal clinic, to present Provisional government.
– The State Office of Public Prosecutor, the Ministry of Justice justify transgressions, being covered with revolutionary changes, – Cholpon Idinovna has minded. – And no letters in various bodies and to officials up to Otunbaevoj solve these problems. The Provisional government also is an instability source in the country. To take, for example, has put about « to the Alpha ». I proved thousand times to everything that in criminal case there is no crime structure, however instead of justice the state wants suit a show trail in sports Palace where will push off ordinary citizens with the trained armed people.
Coming back to a subject of elections, Dzhakupova has underlined that at present the government has appeared in hostages of a situation. Who would not deduce people on meetings, officials are urged to go it on concessions. So, as she said, now also occurs to party « Butun Kyrgyzstan » – This force in the subsequent at acceptance of the objectionable decision for them will blackmail the power.
has summed up performance of lecturers eks - the head of Ministry of Finance Marat of the Sultans, told about use of an administrative resource during elections in relation to party « Ata - Zhurt » and an institution on its members of criminal cases, and also told about removal from posts of the several persons, refused to support on elections the party in power, and about attempt of arrangement of these with « Ata - Zhurtom » before elections.