The government was engaged in the softwareOn hand there was a project developed by the Ministry economic r
the Government was engaged in the software
there was on hand a project of the economic development of the document developed by the Ministry under the name “ the Specified parametres of the forecast socially - economic development of the Russian Federation for the period till 2003 “. The project was considered yesterday at the closed meeting at prime minister Michael Kasyanov. The forecast looks very attractively. It is necessary to make under it one more economic program.
the History has happened the such. At the government already is “ the Basic directions socially - economic policy on long-term prospect “ (Based on workings out of Ministry of economic development and trade headed by Herman Gref). However this program not causes delight in all. On the State Council other long-term program developed by group under the direction of Khabarovsk governor Victor Ishayev has already been presented.
it essentially differs from governmental “ the Basic directions... “. First of all that in it on - to another the state role is treated. It not simply arbitrator on a uniform field for all (as at mister Gref), and the such higher force uniting “ new Russian “ rich and “ old Russian “ the poor. President Vladimir Putin has expressed a wish that programs were as - nibud are united. The government and the State Council at the moment also are engaged in it.
to begin with the government has decided to develop the specified forecast - let not long-term, till 2010, but at least intermediate term, till 2003. And the program to build under this forecast. Logically: usually economic program looks as the list of political intentions. And if to base it on the forecast, it looks like directly - taki algorithm: if there will be a failure and the forecast in something will not come true, other variant of development of economy will be there and then given.
forecast working out was engaged in Ministry of economic development and trade. In December, 2000 the project was ready. Yesterday it have considered at meeting at prime minister Kasyanov. In March as it is planned, the project will approve the government. And then on its basis it is possible will and do the joint program with the State Council.
the forecast such. In 2000 there was an economic growth in 7,2 %, this year 4 %, in 2002 - 4,8 %, in 2003 - 5,2 % will be equal. Last year inflation was 20 - 21 %, in present will make 12 - 14 %, in 2002 it will be slowed down to 11 %, and in 2003 in general will make rather moderate 8 %. All it will be reached at the expense of the healthy budgetary policy, some decrease in taxes and creation of equal conditions for a competition. Manufacture will grow basically from - that solvent internal demand will increase. And still from - that foreign investments will increase. Authors of the forecast underline that a rouble exchange rate not bad to raise, because the underestimated rate of national currency stirs manufacture modernisations. Does not disappear that for performance of this forecast are necessary re-structuring of debts for the Parisian club and not too big falling of the prices for oil. And if, say, are long it is necessary to pay in present volumes and in present terms rates of economic growth will fall on 1 - 2 % a year, inflation will appear above and about an increase in exchange-value of rouble and speech will not be.
the forecast looks very lovely - in the sense that 4 - in a year of economic growth it would be quite good to receive 5 %. However to create under it the plausible economic program on - former not so - that is simple even if to re-structure debts. After all in 1990 - e years Russia and debts almost did not pay, and the prices for oil basically were quite good, and programs was enough, and the economy why - that in any way did not want to develop normally.
ANDREY - HOOKS
the project Text “ the Specified parametres of the forecast socially - economic development of the Russian Federation for the period till 2003 “ it will be placed in tomorrow`s number.