Rus News Journal

The report of IMF on economy of the CIS

the Western experts correct the sights

Yesterday the joint report of experts of the World Bank and
the International currency fund about state of the economy and trade between
the countries of the former USSR is extended. According to experts, since 1991 in territory were
the Union and has not appeared the institutes, capable to provide trade between
the new states: economic relations between them, it is told in the report,
were are disorganised, and at times are close to full breakdown .

According to authors of the report, disintegration of the USSR had catastrophic economic
consequences in force at least that till 1991 the overwhelming part of trade
republics USSR had on an interrepublican turn. In a smaller measure
Russia has suffered only: In 1991 on other republics it was necessary only
61 % of its volume of trade. (At 80 % at other republics). The sad picture
is aggravated with that there is no even exact data about trade between new
the states. According to the World Bank and the IMF, its volume was reduced for
1991 to more than 30 %, falling has proceeded in 1992 and will remain in
1993.
the basic anxiety of experts is caused by disorganisation credit - monetary and
payment systems (that in general is traditional for IMF and the World bank). The reason
they see in the politician of the central banks of republics of a rouble zone,
having possibilities malokontroliruemogo increases in monetary weight by
crediting in roubles. Except inflation growth, it has led to difficulties in
trade and payments: export was stimulated in different degree separate
the enterprises and economy as a whole. Introduction by Russia of correspondent accounts
the central banks of republics with a view of strengthening of control over crediting
other states and struggle against outflow of the goods became a two-edged sword .
Refusal of the Central Bank of Russia to pay under payment orders of the enterprises of debitor country
(what it has appeared much in the conditions of active balance of trading balance of Russia
- a monopolist in trade in energy carriers and many kinds of raw materials) has struck on
to the Russian exporters who could not receive money for already
the goods sent in another republics.
preponov in trade experts of Bank and IMF consider as one of the main things wide
distribution of quotas and licences. They are inclined to explain it two reasons,
which now want to eliminate administrative measures: 1) at absence
coordination credit - the monetary policy operates powerful stimulus of each country
to import the goods for roubles, which Breed own central
bank; 2) scales of liberalisation of the prices in republics it is strongly separated.
on the basis of bilateral agreements experts
Bank and IMF see many weak spots in interstate trade. Nomenclature division
bilateral trade on obligatory (100 - 150 kinds of energy carriers and
raw materials), indicative (1000 - 1500 names of the goods) and trade between
the enterprises has not solved great variety of problems . The main thing, in opinion
experts, consists that as trade is conducted on bilateral
level, the governments, instead of the market define distribution of resources .
In summary experts of IMF and World Bank notice that in the future
economic growth in the states of the former USSR will be facilitated by introduction
the currencies converted on current accounts, and transition to trade with low and
uniform tariffs - at the maximum withdrawal from not tariff obstacles
(with a view of stimulation of noncontrollable trade between the enterprises). In the same
time experts recognise that the situation existing now
is so far from optimum conditions what now optimum to develop
transitive, is frequent not the most successful usages which will allow to come nearer to
to the desired purposes in more long-term prospect . Last conclusion
is the certificate of evolution of sights of experts of IMF and the World Bank
on the eve of a new stage of discussion of methods of assistance to economic reforms in
the former USSR, in particular, in connection with the expected decision on re-structuring
debts of the USSR the Parisian club and discussion of a package of the help of Russia by the countries
the big seven . Such evolution, according to some observers,
allows to hope that henceforth specificity of development of the Post-Soviet states
in much bigger degree will be considered in recommendations of IMF and the World Bank
about ways of carrying out of reforms.

GEORGE - BOVT