The law of returnable force
On government consideration at last is introduced the bill “ About warranting of return of contributions of citizens in banks of the Russian Federation “. In it the state has incurred the obligation to enter system of guarantees under contributions since January, 1st, 2002. And if the government and deputies manage to realise conceived next year investors will have a possibility fearlessly to give the savings to banks.
prospects of banks
basically were engaged Till now in problems of investors deputies. They have spent for it about seven years. Nevertheless from giving of deputies the law and has not been accepted. Executive power each time found in it defects. And also disagreed with position of the law which obliged the state to participate in financing of system of warranting.
this time the Ministry of economic development became the author of the bill. And though in bolshej parts of the new bill are read former deputy workings out, the status of its author allows says that in the document the government position is considered. And it means that chances of the bill have sharply increased. As in the new document the state has incurred for the first time responsibility for functioning of system of warranting. Deputies will agree with such variant easily. So a solving word behind the government.
According to the bill, at the head of system there will be an agency created by the Russian Federation. The agency also will return savings to investors in case of bank ruin. The reserve fund on these purposes will be created at the expense of payments of banks and the state. The state undertakes not only to bring an entrance fee to agency property, but also to divide with it responsibility on its debts. Thus the government intends to carry out rigid control over agency work. All key questions of its activity, including connected with formation and investment of means, will be in supervisory board conducting into which five representatives of the government will enter.
the warranting system will be entered in the country into two stages. Since January, 1st of the next year banks can join it on a voluntary basis. Special demands of the Central Bank will begin the participant of system to be made to interested persons. He, most likely, will develop them after the introduction of the law into force into the statutory acts. And after that banks will pass to the international standards of the financial reporting (MSFO), participation in system becomes obligatory for all credit organisations working with means of the population. To begin transfer of banks on MSFO Bank of Russia plans since January, 1st, 2004. So the high-grade choice of banks at investors, even in case of adoption of law, unfortunately, will appear not earlier than 2005.
Prospects of investors
However, already today it is possible to notice that fact that investors with the big hunting trust the money to banks. The leader in this market on - former there is the Savings Bank of Russia already having state guarantees under contributions. According to the first deputy of the chairman of the board of the Savings Bank of Alla Aleshkinoj, for ten months of current year population contributions to bank have increased on 100 mlrd rbl. - to 440 mlrd rbl. For comparison: for all last year the gain of private deposits in bank has made 114 mlrd rbl.
Nevertheless the Savings Bank share in the market gradually is reduced. So, according to Goskomstat for January, 1st, 2001, to the Savings Bank belonged 75,1 % of the market of private contributions, and for September, 1st - already 73,4 %. It means that investors began to trust commercial banks more. In total from January till September of current year population contributions to banks have grown almost on third. And in comparison with September of last year - on 43,4 %. For today in banks it is concentrated from above 600 mlrd rbl. of investors.
such statistics shows that investors today the question of preservation of consumer ability of savings, rather than receptions of incomes on them in a greater degree interests. The matter is that rates offered by banks under contributions hardly protect savings of the population from inflation which following the results of a year is expected around 16 - 18 %. Under rouble year contributions banks give no more than 18 % annual. And under dollar deposits for similar term - 9 - 11 % that taking into account dollar exchange rate growth for a year equal 15 - 16 % annual in roubles.
nevertheless, ascertaining demand for deposits, banks offer more and more quantity of supplementary products. Within last year the majority of active participants of the market of bank contributions was entered by deposits into euro. As a rule, to bring on such contributions it is possible currency of any country passing since January, 1st, 2002 for euro. Upon termination of contribution term to draw out money it is possible both in placed currency, and in euro. The last, of course, becomes possible, only if contribution term expires next year.
However, rates under contributions to euro more low, than under dollar deposits, on 2 - 4 %. Under annual contributions to euro banks offer no more than 7 %. Thus the euro constantly falls in relation to dollar. It turns out what to place means for such deposits it is extremely unprofitable. Nevertheless demand for contributions to euro is already today. Though many banks while concern prospects of these contributions rather sceptically and consider that the majority of investors in the near future will not refuse habitual dollar deposits (about a choice problem between euro and dollar which becomes fast actual for many, p. 17 and 20 see also).
However, the most part of savings of the population still remains under mattresses. So, according to the National agency of the financial information referring on given statisticans, the gain of savings of the population of Russia in August has made almost 53 mlrd rbl. Of them 10,6 mlrd citizens have left on hands, nearby 14,1 mlrd rbl. have placed in bank contributions and securities. And the most part - 28,1 mlrd rbl. - was porchena on purchase of dollars. Also it is visible, to pull out “ matrasnye “ savings from the population without adoption of law about warranting of contributions at banks it will not turn out.