Grivnas while are not present
on August, 26th as wrote on Saturday, the chronicle of the declared death karbovantsa should begin. However karbovanets yesterday has worried. But it is hardly safe. This day many events have occurred in the monetary market of Ukraine. In spite of the fact that Leonid Kuchma`s decree “ About currency reform “ it is signed on Sunday, the head a press - services of National bank of Ukraine Dmitry Rikberg on Monday assiduously denied hearings about grivna introduction within the next few days, but something concrete about currency reform refused to tell. And though outwardly currency reform in Ukraine is similar on pure denominatsionnuju, passions in the currency market have inflamed the serious. And it is not casual.
According to the decree of the Ukrainian president the grivna will appear on September, 2nd, and karbovanets will disappear on September, 16th. The exchange mechanism has been described on August, 24th. For first two weeks of September the exchange of cash currency should be finished. An exchange rate - 100 thousand karbovantsev for 1 grivna. In the decree text the phrase - the password contains also that recalculation will be made “ without any restrictions, withdrawals and confiscations “. This reservation concerns first of all the prices, tariffs, level of salaries and the pensions, all kinds of savings, including safety deposits. Unique restriction concerns an exchange of cash karbovantsev private persons. The sums to 100 million krb exchange for cash grivnas, over 100 million krb are enlisted on contributions to banks with the right of their free use in grivnas. Till September, 16th commercial banks accept from the population cash Ukrainian karbovantsy without any restrictions at the established exchange rate karbovantsev for grivnas. Non-cash karbovantsy legal bodies exchange at the specified course free. Cash surpluses karbovantsev should be issued and handed over to 17. On September, 00 2.
in what sense of the Ukrainian currency reform? At first sight, all is simple: it would seem, what will change, if on karbovantsah will cross out five zero? Actually the effect of reform is not limited to denomination.
There is a new currency. And time so first of all it is necessary to pay attention to a parity karbovantsa and the grivnas, measured in HARD CURRENCY. Leonid Kuchma`s decree tells the following about it: the Natsbank of Ukraine defines the official rate of exchange of grivna proceeding from own course operating before the beginning of carrying out of currency reform, and an Ukrainian exchange rate karbovantsa for grivna. Sounds harmoniously, but this position of the decree karbovantsa, occurring now the collapse speaks the currency market of Ukraine. It is indicative that on Friday when in Kiev there was an information leakage about the reform coming in the near future, one dollar “ has risen in price “ On six thousand karbovantsev and in second half of day in exchange offices of Kiev has reached 183 thousand, in Simferopol one dollar changed for 195 thousand karbovantsev. The panic in the currency market carries out an important macroeconomic problem. In the event that by September, 2nd the rate of exchange karbovantsa will be brought down, the grivna accepts low start that, on the one hand, can push the Ukrainian export, and with another - will put base for rise in prices acceleration. Naturally, in Kiev count first of all on export effect. Therefore it is possible to assume that Kiev “ leak “ about the currency reform beginning had planned character.
grivna occurrence promises to Kiev and favour of IMF which it it is assiduous but while without results achieves. Though Natsbank of Ukraine it is proud declares that $2 mlrd with which it is ready to support new currency (by estimations NBU have, would suffice and $1,5 mlrd), one of the major purposes are underlined frictionless currency reform, undoubtedly, consists in forcing IMF to fork up. The final decision about replacement terms karbovantsa grivna is not casual it was accepted in Kiev in days of negotiations with mission of the IMF which has come to the end on August, 22nd. Most likely, then the IMF all - taki has agreed to a role of the godfather of grivna. And if so in destiny of the program of the expanded crediting (EFF) the Ukrainian budget from the IMF estimated in $2,5 mlrd, the light strip can begin.
VADIM - BARDIN