To fall asleep a full tankOne of the main reasons of a prompt rise in prices for the foodstuffs in the analytics world name replacement of gasoline by biofuel. However, as has counted up an observer “ the Authorities “ Boris Volhonsky , the prospect of full transition to biofuel is far and foggy, and the present rise in prices for grain is caused by absolutely other reasons.
messages on a theme of the food crisis, especially loudly sounding from the middle of last year, remind recently fighting reports more and more. The rise in prices for grain exceeds all conceivable indicators, leading exporters of grain, including Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Argentina and Thailand, one after another enter restrictions on export, and in Third World countries spontaneous revolts flash. Even in shops of such safe countries as the USA and Great Britain, are entered restrictions on rice holiday into one hands. Experts have started talking about hunger threat in unprecedented earlier scales, and chapter of the International food programme of United Nations Zhozett Shiran named a rise in prices for grain in the world “ a silent tsunami “.
For struggle against global crisis of the United Nations creates the special commission, and leaders of the countries “ G8 “ have taken out this problem as one of the main things that at the future summit G8 which will pass in July on Japanese island Hokkaido.
it is a lot of reasons for crisis: population growth, increase of a standard of living, and consequently, and a consumption level of foodstuff, and also become frequent from - for global climate changes of a drought and poor harvests. However hardly probable not the main reasons of a rise in price of grain for last year analysts name activization of searches of alternative energy sources and more and more accurately appearing tendency of replacement of gasoline on ethanol (ethyl spirit).
Today in the USA more and more automobile owners pass from pure gasoline to a mix consisting of 90 % of gasoline and 10 % of ethyl spirit. According to experts, this transition does not demand additional options of the engine while benefit is obvious - such fuel more cheaply pure gasoline and pollutes atmosphere much less. In almost not having own oil, but possessing large supplies of bioraw materials of Brazil use a mix in which the spirit share reaches 22 % (however, harmlessness of such mix for engines is not confirmed yet by tests). Experimental models of cars which can use either pure spirit, or a mix with the small maintenance of gasoline are already created.
meanwhile we will ask a question: the prospect of replacement of the fuel received from oil, on biofuel is how much real? Oil recovery last years fluctuates rather slightly and keeps around 83 - 84 million barrels a day, (30 - 31 mlrd barrels a year) that makes hardly more than 4 mlrd tons of crude oil. Modern technologies allow to transform to gasoline to half of oil, thus, the general annual volume of output of gasoline approximately is equal 2 mlrd tons.
how many it is necessary grains for reception of the same quantity of ethanol? From one ton of grain to 400 l, or hardly more than 300 kg of pure spirit on the average turn out. Thus, for reception 2 mlrd tons of liquid biofuel it is required nearby 6,5 mlrd grain tons. For comparison: all world grain yield in 2007 has made an order 1,66 mlrd tons i.e. completely to replace oil, it is necessary to increase grain manufacture almost in 4 times, thus having refused its use in food and on a forage to cattle.
and one more figure: In the same 2007 only about 100 million tons of grain (6 % from all gathering) have gone on ethanol manufacture.
here it is important to consider one more circumstance. As told Ostap of Bendery, moonshine can be driven from everything, though from a stool. Vladimir Voinovich`s hero has gone further away, using for this purpose of excrements. Means, biofuel can be received not only from grain, but also from other materials of a phytogenesis containing unessentially sugar or starch, but also and cellulose, - grasses, leaves, sawdust and other waste derevoobrabatyvajushchej the industries, paper for recycling and a household waste. However while manufacturers of ethanol all - taki prefer to drive it from corn (as to the USA) or from a sugar cane (as in Brazil). The matter is that low cost tselljulozosoderzhashchego raw materials does not compensate high cost of technology of its processing on spirit.
So, at present volume of areas under crops and present level of productivity grain the prospect of full replacement of gasoline ethanol is almost unreal. However it is necessary to notice that use only 6 % of the grain collected in the world on ethanol manufacture has caused enormous (in some countries more than double) growth of its price for the last year.
in this connection there are very big doubts that sharp jump of the prices for the grain, caused a rise in price and other foodstuff, has been caused by the objective reasons. Most likely, the reason was purely psychological - a panic which is assiduously warmed up by exchange speculators. As the bubble of the world prices for oil cannot be inflated infinitely and sooner or later will burst, and the price for gold and other precious metals too will not grow eternally, the new platform urgently was necessary for speculative game for stockbrokers. And world food crisis has turned up it as it is impossible by the way.