Russian and World Newsfor That to wait this week?
Sergey Poduzov, chief of analytical department BFA:
- high oil quotations which are near to historical maxima against disorders in Nigeria and aggravations irano - the American relations continue to render to domestic stock market Serious support. In our opinion, this week the prices for oil of mark Brent after rapid growth can fall to a mark of $115 for barrel. However it should not lead to decrease in actions of the companies of oil sector. RTS index, possibly, will fluctuate around 2100 - 2180 points.
it is better than the market, probably, papers " will look; Gazprom “. Growth of stock quotes of gas monopoly will be promoted declared by the government of the Russian Federation by plans on increase in tariffs at gas for internal consumers on 40 % in 2011. Will constrain purchases in bank sector of news about losses of bank UBS at a rate of $10,9 mlrd in the first quarter 2008. Actions VTB which growth is promoted by good financial results can become an exception: in the first quarter 2008 the bank net profit has grown on 38 %, to 6,6 mlrd rbl.
Stanislav Kleshchev, head of analytical department VTB 24:
- We expect that postcelebratory week in the Russian share market will be concerning quiet. The most part dividendnyh dates already remains behind, and influence of this seasonal factor on the market will decrease. Though on Monday we will win back still consequences of mass closing of registers on “ to blue counters “. Opening with fall of the basic share indicators from - for otsechek under dividends on such indeksoobrazujushchim to the companies, as " is almost predetermined; Gazprom “ LUKOIL, the Savings Bank, VTB, “ Tatneft “ and MTS. RTS index will locate hardly above a mark of 2150 points.
thus the risk of correction in the raw markets remains the basic risk for the Russian stock market for these days. Last week our market could rise above exclusively thanks to growth of quotations of oil futures. However in case of continuation of strengthening of the American dollar (that can be promoted by the data leaving on this week about retails and inflation) quotations of futures on oil can not be kept in the USA near to record marks that will provoke also decrease in capitalisation Russian blue chips.
Andrey Zokin, executive director under investments UK “ Gazprombank - Management of actives “:
- this week the Russian share market of will enough conduct volatilno, the general dynamical conjuncture which will promote market growth however is planned. In my opinion, next week the index of RTS will reach a point of 2220 points. To it will promote, in - the first, a positive conjuncture in the market of the raw goods - in particular, we expect growth of the price for oil and positive dynamics in the market of metals. And in - the second - the positive moods of the international investors connected with strengthening of macroeconomic and political stability in the country.
Besides, in the general opinion of experts, recession in the USA will not be such deep, predictably earlier. It should lead to reduction of intensity and mass inflow of investors by stock market. Certainly, some negative events - for example, - still can have an effect on bank system. However we continue to consider that Dow Jones, most likely, will not fall below 12 500 points.
Konstantin Guljaev, leading analyst GK “ Region “:
- Preconditions for growth in the Russian share market have developed; indexes of RTS and the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange show positive dynamics from the end of April. It became possible thanks to conjuncture improvement in external stock markets and strong support which the raw prices, first of all render to the Russian market the prices for oil thanks to what the raised demand for actions of the oil and gas companies recently is observed. Besides the favorable external factor positive dynamics of indexes is connected with internal events - the strong reporting of the Russian companies, dividendnymi otsechkami, and also the introduction into a post of the new president that strengthens expectations of increase of a sovereign rating of Russia. Nevertheless still early to say that negative tendencies in stock markets are definitively overcome. The statistical data from the USA for the present does not allow to speak about passage of the lowest point of crisis with confidence. Concern is caused by the data about retails, industrial production and building of houses. Besides dollar exchange rate strengthening to euro can provoke correction in the raw markets.