Sources of constant pressureIn the centre of attention of investors continue to remain actions of the electropower companies. Their jumps from leaders in outsiders of the market become more and more chaotic, and the reasons of these movings - more speculative. The consumer sector has caused a stir also: after a long break its representatives have entered again into our monthly ratings - both leaders, and outsiders.
the liquidating commission
The more close on July, 1st - an expiry date of reorganisation of the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“, the more tensely conditions in sector. In different variations of the action energicheskih the companies constantly are present at the list of outsiders of the market. In April the choice of investors has unanimously fallen on the action is wholesale - the generating companies.
All last month the basic events developed round auction on sale OGK - 1. After unsuccessful auction in March in April of the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ has made one more attempt to find buyers on a state block of shares making, with the account dopemissii, more than 70 % of an authorised capital stock of the generating company. At an active looked narrowly the French power company EDF, “ Group E4 “ close to were a top - to the manager of the Russian Open Society Michael Abyzovu, and “ Complex power systems “ Victor Vekselberg.
in April it became known that first two applicants have voluntary left game as $5 mlrd, the requested Russian Open Societies “United Power Systems“ for package OGK - 1, have seemed to them unfairly high price. And at Anatoly Chubays`s uncompromising position concerning package cost - “ cheaply we will not sell “ - to receive a discount it would be uneasy.
the unique applicant for a victory in auction has appeared the consortium of investors led by KES which as - that is languid and not on - chempionski has apprehended the leadership. Head KES Michael Slobodin has some times expressed disagreement with the price requested by the Russian Open Society, naming even flowing (at that point in time - $0,095) the prices for actions OGK - 1 uninteresting for purchase.
in April average stock value OGK - 1 was in area of $500 for kw of the established capacity. The price which could suit investors, according to mister Slobodina, should be about $400 for kw, that is on 20 % more low.
the board of the Russian Open Society was confused with the narrowed circle of participants and threat of failure of auction from - for fluctuations of the unique applicant for an active. Without naming names, the Russian Open Society has paid attention to structure of participants of a consortium - all enter in Russian to ten magazine Forbes: the pier, from such buyers of power actives a sin not to demand on a maximum. However, Russian Open Society management nevertheless has made a concession, having offered buyers instalments before the third quarter 2009. In April negotiations and have not been finished, and the announcement of results of competition on sale of package OGK - 1 have transferred for May, 20th. While the Russian Open Society still plans to get rid of package OGK - 1 till July, 1st, no less than from other largest actives - “ Tjumenenergosbyta “ the Petersburg marketing company, “ Moscow power sale “ TGK - 7, TGK - 11, TGK - 12 and TGK - 14.
the Overestimated expectations of sellers and weak interest of buyers to one of the best actives of domestic generation (OGK - 1 is among leaders OGK on electric power sales volumes in the free market with the highest established capacity of thermal stations - 9,5 GVt) have negatively affected cost of its actions. From the moment of the first carrying over of auction on sale of package OGK - 1 in March by the end of April company capitalisation has decreased on 26,5 %, to $3, 84 billion
to sell papers investors have begun More actively after the information has filtered into mass-media that each participant of a consortium of buyers of state block of shares OGK - 1 will receive equal shares of actions that the share of everyone did not exceed 30 %. And it, in turn, will relieve them of necessity to offer minority shareholders the offer about the repayment of actions at the price of auction. For the last it means that a case earns on the offer it it can and not be presented. Analyst BKS Irina Filatova does not exclude such scenario: “ Presence of a consortium of investors can not assume the obligatory offer to shareholders OGK - 1 in this connection after the announcement of the price of the transaction it is not necessary to wait for strong growth of quotations OGK - 1. We recommend to investors to watch succession of events around OGK - 1 (the recommendation “ to hold “ with target by $0,10) and to sell the actions OGK - 1 after the announcement of the price of placing “.
Also it is possible that from - for absence of a competitive agiotage round Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ auction hardly can long insist on the price of sale of package OGK - 1 at the prices above market. So, auction results even if the rule of the obligatory offer will be observed, in intermediate term prospect will not lead to essential growth of actions OGK - 1.
However, analyst FK “ Opening “ Stanislav Shubin considers it improbable. “ the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ hardly will admit such succession of events, - it explains. - the infringement of interests of minority shareholders in the end of reform will not allow the Russian Open Society to leave from a scene beautifully. Moreover, it declared possibility of carrying over of sale OGK - 1 for a year - two. Potential buyers should become more active, differently they can get the company only in a year - two when the electric power and capacity market will be almost liberalised, and company cost will be not so low. We assume that the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ is not interested in company sale at the price below $600 - 650 for kw, and, most likely, the transaction will take place at the level close to the bottom border of the specified range. Our recommendation about papers OGK - 1 - “ to buy “ with the settlement price for the end of the year of $0,165 “.
the New management and orientation to new strategy of development of the company “ 36,6 “ did not become sufficient stimulus for growth of actions of a chemist`s network. In April they have lost in the price about 20 %, having decreased to $42,5 for a piece. Investors prefer while to be guided not by the future projects, and on a current state of affairs in the company. That is on low profitability (following the results of nine months 2007 the loss on EBITDA has grown on 255 %, from $3,6 million to $12,8 million, the pure consolidated loss has reached $41,9 million) at high debt loading (the current pure debt of the company makes almost $270 million).
Appointed in the end of the last year the head of company Dzherri Kalmis has promised to struggle with these illnesses of a chemist`s network. For restoration of profitability it is going to reduce rates of expansion of a network sharply. Now in Russia 1220 drugstores under a brand " work approximately; 36,6 “ and the last some years the company aggressively increased their number to the detriment of financial indicators. So, in 2007 the chemist`s network has opened 350 shops. Now, by expert estimations, in 2008 instead of planned 480 drugstores it will be opened 50. It will lead to reduction of a gain from roznitsy on 16 %, to $979,1 million Under forecasts of mister Kalmisa, by 2012 the chemist`s network should increase sales to $3 billion
Some saving recipes the new head of a network has offered and in connection with refinancing of a mullions-strong debt “ 36,6 “. For this purpose it is going to relieve the company of not profile actives. The first steps in this direction are already made. In the end of April it became known that “ 36,6 “ carries on negotiations for sale of the European medical centre for $100 million, on turn - objects of real estate in Moscow. At a favorable outcome of transactions the company can extinguish to half of debt. The Rest can be extinguished through release of convertible bonds.
analysts with approval have concerned management plans. But thus warn that execution of cardinally new program of development of the company is interfaced to high risks. “ the company stakes on decrease in accounts payable and improvement of an indicator of profitability. It is the long-term thought over strategy, therefore it is not necessary to wait for fast effect, - analyst FK " believes; Opening “ Irina Jarotsky. - It is impossible to exclude that sooner or later on the Russian market the western player like English Boots will come. If by this time “ 36,6 “ Can show stable growth it becomes the first candidate on absorption. In my opinion, such plans are not alien to the company, considering how it is aggressive recently it increased retail points. In intermediate term prospect of the action are less attractive. Orientation exclusively on organic growth will essentially cut down expectations on a gain, especially in 2008. Therefore we, possibly, will reconsider the recommendation about actions of a chemist`s network “ 36,6 “ from the current recommendation “ to buy “ (the target price of $83,4) towards fall “.
Risk factor can become for the company and the decision on decrease in debt loading at the expense of release of convertible bonds. “ all will depend on loan parametres. Nevertheless investors can negatively react to such decision as the increase in quantity of actions in the long term can lead “ razvodneniju “ costs of one action. Probably, it became one of factors of falling of actions “ 36,6 “ in April “ - analyst BKS Tatyana Bobrovsky who has put on revision the recommendation " speaks; to hold “ under actions of a chemist`s network.
the rate on a roof
the Branch index “ RTS - consumer goods and retail trade “ has decreased last month on 2 %. Results unless at telecommunication and power sectors were worse. However, despite the general weakness of a consumer sector in April, in the list of leaders of increase of the price there were actions of the trading house of Central Department Store. For a month their cost has grown on 85 %.
Actions of the trading house confidently grow from the end of February. This activity after more than annual calm is especially appreciable. All this period the auctions by actions TSUMa were languid, their cost was near to $2, without changing almost. Therefore jump at once to $6, even adjusted for low liquidity of actions, could not pass not noticed.
Thus financial results of the company yet are not represented very much iridescent. Following the results of 2006 its net profit made 59,7 million roubles, and in 2007 it was reduced to 11,7 million roubles. Explanations of the reasons of so sharp decrease in profit at experts were not.
operating actives IK “ Dee Si Kepital “ Eric Katsov considers that to impressing growth of a share of company are obliged more likely to gamble on a news background, than to the fundamental reasons. And the news background really was favorable.
in the middle of the month there was an information that the superstructure project on a roof of shop of a glass floor is developed by the area of 6 thousand square metres in which restaurants with a kind on Red Square will take place. The little to earlier trading house managed to expand a trading network, having opened within the limits of network development new luxurious shop Luxury Village in one more sign area - Barvikha.
“ At the moment interest to actions TSUMa is warmed up in addition by messages on the future reconstruction of a building of the trading house which, by the most modest estimations, can manage to Arcady Novikova`s group, conceived to organise in TSUMe a restaurant zone, in $18 million Such course, certainly, will allow to increase floor spaces, and also to involve more visitors. However negotiations between the known victualer and present owner TD Central Department Store Mercury are not finished yet “ - Eric Katsov tells. Thus he adds that thanks to prompt launch in April of the action of shopping centre have settled the potential of growth: “ In spite of the fact that actions of the trading house continue to grow, we recommend them “ to hold “ with target by $6,5 “.
According to RTS.
according to RTS.