Rus News Journal

The gold revenge

Oil rises in price, gold becomes cheaper - such is the basic result of April in the market of commodity futures. In May movement of quotations is supposed the return: in - the first, as result of some correction in relation to behaviour of the markets in April, and in - the second as such dynamics - reduction of prices on oil and rise in prices for gold - is characteristic for the end of spring. So experts see on sale oil and purchase of gold futures possibility of extraction of the quite good income. If, of course, the corrective amendments in dynamics of the markets will be not not brought by development of world financial crisis.
oscillatory process
After languid correction in March (which looked faster as a lateral trend) in April has begun a new coil of growth in the oil market. As well as experts predicted, increase of demand for fuel in connection with the beginning of agricultural and automobile seasons was not slow to affect the oil prices. For April oil Brent in the world markets has risen in price for 11,2 %, Urals - on 10,2 %.

For spotovyj barrel Brent to the middle of April gave from $111 to $113. And the prices for three-monthly oil futures Brent last decade April have confidently overcome a mark of $119 for barrel and have closely stolen up to $120. Futures on Urals in market FORTS of a stock exchange of RTS actually followed the prices on spotovom the market: for a month these contracts have risen in price for 10,9 %.

Then, however, the habitual picture of seasonal splash has been broken. Not that that it was recession, is simple by the end of month of the price have laid down in drift at level of $111 for barrel. The phenomenon unusual as usually seasonal growth proceeds to the middle of May. Thus the market became rather volatilnym. Any local event (for example, strikes on petrocrafts in Scotland) raised the oil prices approximately for 3 % for trading session - however recoil to quasiequilibrium $111 for barrel next day followed.

Observable dynamics, probably, has been connected by that in the end of April the market waited planned on 30 - e number of decision FRS the USA on new levels of interest rates. Also was afraid to grow too strongly as in the end of March experts spoke about unwillingness FRS and further to reduce the rate. As a result players of the oil market have appeared more wisely financial analysts. On April, 30th rate FRS has been lowered on 0,25 % (with 2,25 to 2 %) whereas financial analysts predicted its falling on 0,5 %. Thus in the comments FRS has specified in high inflation in the USA. And now participants of the market believe that the seventh successively reduction of rate FRS can become the last, at least till the end of the year. And it, in turn, becomes a deterrent for the oil prices.

additional deterrents is unexpectedly good data under gross national product of the USA for the first quarter and record for last 16 years inflation in the European Union. Still on April, 19th euro reached peak in $1,61, and by the end of month for it gave only $1,55. Participants of the market are afraid crisis export from the USA in the European Union. For the oil market it can turn back reduction in demand. And if the USA extract an oil part (and its stocks increase as a result of intensive geological prospecting) Europe more importozavisima, the reconnoitered stocks there are reduced.

Anton Startsev, leading analyst IF Olma : In April in the oil world market movement upwards was observed. The corporate reporting and the statistical data promoted softening of fears concerning recession in the USA and, accordingly, concerning possible reduction of demand for energy carriers from the largest world consumer. Meanwhile the OPEC on - former does not see necessity to increase extraction volumes (according to some experts, cartel possibility in this plan rather ogranichenny) that supports to the oil market. Essential occasions to strong movements in the oil market are not present now. After appreciable lifting - and from the beginning of year oil Brent has risen in price for 17,5 % - some period of consolidation is possible. According to the technical analysis, the most probable scenario in May is that: an oscillative motion of oil futures in a range of $107 - 117 for barrel of mark Brent .

Konstantin Fedorov, the senior analyst IK B. C. Capital : the Prices for oil after short falling in 20 - h dates of March have continued to update records in April. The steel reasons amplifying concern concerning physical impossibility of escalating of extraction by the countries which are not entering into the OPEC (in particular, Russia), and unwillingness of the OPEC to increase a quota. The role short-term factors have played also: strike in Scottish Grenzhmute, and also strikes accompanied by shooting in Nigeria.

However uncertainty of policy FRS became the main reason of instability in the raw materials markets in April. Such impression that we have come nearer to crisis in dynamics of interest rate FRS and, accordingly, the US dollar which approaches in the middle of 2008 expected many economists. However, we consider that present strengthening of optimism concerning economy of the USA and, accordingly, expectation of the termination or enough long pause in decrease in interest rate FRS still are premature. If we appear are right, rate FRS a series of decrease expects additional, though also short. With it and - one more round of easing of US dollar and one more splash in the prices for gold will be connected with smaller degree of definiteness - on oil which and now is not too cheap. But, of course, the confidence of such variant of succession of events in the markets now has less in comparison with the beginning of year .

Pavel Zajtsev, an analyst on the market derivativov FK Opening : In April oil has continued to update price maxima, now WTI bargains at level of $116,32 for barrel. In the oil world market correction expectations dominate. Under oil futures it is observed bekvordejshn - a negative spread between spotovoj by oil and the future for it. For example, for the future with delivery in the end of the second quarter it makes a minus of 3,2 %. If to judge under futures, by June of quotation WTI can decrease to $95 for barrel.

also I will notice that on FORTS at players interest to the future for diesel fuel has completely disappeared - volumes of the auctions and number of open positions were reduced to zero. Interest to settlement contracts on oil Urals at the same time has sharply grown. The monthly average volume of the auctions from February till April has increased almost four times - from 6,3 million to 24,6 million rbl. From this it is possible to draw a conclusion that large players " have become interested in the tool;.

Informed vessels
In the market of precious metals in April correction was observed: gold for a month has fallen in price on 4,29 %, silver - on 2,18 %. Probably, the market of precious metals was included into the period of that correction which only is planned in the oil market. The reason is simple: in March on it has come too much wishing zahedzhirovat risks, the offer of money has inflated the prices for resources, and in April they have appeared essentially overestimated.

and the market of precious metals is more sensitive to positive changes in the macroeconomic statistics across the USA and negative - on the European Union. And here falling, and then dollar restoration in April did not influence dynamics of the prices for precious metals in any way: the prices decreased both at falling, and at the growing dollar. There is an impression that the currency markets and precious metals are divided today.

However, now, after correction, the majority of analysts believes that in the market of precious metals the new stage of growth will soon begin, and mark quite good possibilities for investment in this sector.

Anton Startsev: In April growth in the market of precious metals was replaced by correction downwards. Gold and silver on spotovom the market have fallen in price on 4,3 and 2,2 % accordingly. Futures for gold and silver on FORTS have lost accordingly 7,1 and 6,4 %. As a whole volatilnost in section of precious metals on FORTS above, than on spotovom the market as last is more liquid. According to the technical analysis, correction downwards in the market of precious metals in May can stop. So, the prices for gold can find support near to level of $850 for ounce. In favour of correction end downwards tell also macroeconomic factors: While there is an uncertainty concerning state of the economy of the USA, demand for the most reliable actives to which it is accepted to carry gold " will remain;.

Pavel Zajtsev: If in the market of oil players expect correction in the markets of precious metals it in April has already passed - the majority of its participants expect growth renewal. Under futures for gold and silver with delivery in June exists kontango - a positive spread between spotovoj the price and by the future. The spread under futures for gold makes plus of 5,6 %, a spread under futures for silver - almost plus of 6 %. It testifies to preservation of fears of players is rather brave delays of the American economy and dollar decrease. By June gold can reach level of $920 for trojskuju ounce, and silver can rise in price to $16,7 for trojskuju ounce .

Nikolay Solabuto, an analyst under investments IK finam : The basic results of April in the market of commodity futures - oil has grown, gold has fallen. In May return movement will go, that is oil will be corrected, and precious metals - to grow. The phenomenon has seasonal nature. In April the cold season still proceeds, but the season of agricultural works and an automobile season already begin. Therefore demand for fuel and, accordingly, on oil sharply grows. And the part of money from the market of precious metals flows in the growing goods - oil. In May the cold season comes to an end - together with a sowing campaign. And it seriously reduces demand for fuel and oil. Means are deduced from the oil market (that gives correction) and partially invested back on the market of precious metals where by this time industrial demand for year is definitively defined. There is a growth .

However, there are also sceptics who do not trust in fast restoration of the prices for precious metals. Konstantin Fedorov: Gold, dynamics of the prices on which basically is defined by an investment demand, could not be restored after falling of cost in the end of March. The lifting, begun was in the middle of April in connection with dollar exchange rate decrease in which course the mark of $1,6 for euro has been reached, it has appeared same short, as this decrease. So it is possible to draw a conclusion that while the gold market is in a lateral trend an exit from which it is not visible .

As to the Russian markets of other commodity futures (sugar, grain), on them in April practically occurred nothing. And it is especially strange that at world stock exchanges there were essential enough movements under corresponding contracts. However the domestic market of these goods in April was so nizkolikvidnym that at all did not notice world dynamics of the prices.

Pavel Zajtsev: In April the world prices for sugar decreased, during the same time on FORTS the prices were stable. In May it is possible to expect some falling of the internal prices for sugar within the limits of traditional seasonal decrease in quotations. In the world markets it is possible to expect lateral dynamics in May and growth of quotations in June. Positive dynamics of future contracts testifies to it with delivery in the end of the second quarter. The spread between them and the current price makes 4,3 % .