Expert Kanatbek Abdrahmatov: “ Bishkek will sustain 8 - mark earthquake...
the shiver of Japan was passed Kyrgyzstan. Tragical events in the rising sun Country have generated set of conjectures and fears. Butters to fire were added by last
5 - the mark shake-up which epicentre was in 25 kilometres from Bishkek. To deny panic hearings and to tell about a developing seismic situation in republic « has asked the director of Institute of seismology of National academy of Sciences KR Kanatbeka Abdrahmatova.
« Pise-walled mud huts will collapse, high-rise buildings – will stand »
On a paramount question: « When in Kyrgyzstan there can be an accident? » – the expert responds a standard phrase: « Forecasts – business ungrateful. And then, it is not assured that they will be of use for the population ». Last remark is made with an ulterior motive. After a series of publications in mass-media of joint works of the director of Institute of seismology with other scientists the population was overflowed by a panic.
- we wanted to prepare people for possible natural cataclysms, and have received absolutely other result, - explains Kanatbek Ermekovich. – Having interpreted the information after the own fashion, readers have imagined, as if earthquake will occur any day and will carry away set of lives.
- and when it can happen actually?
- If I knew the exact answer, for a long time already became the Nobel prize winner! Do short-term forecasts anybody cannot. The prospering Japan – sad to volume an example. I can not deny that destructive earthquake in Kyrgyzstan will be, at least proceeding from that simple logic that us shook also hundred, and one thousand years ago. And here when it happens – anybody does not know: probably, in two minutes after ours with you of conversation, and can be, in 20 years. Undoubtedly one: as a result of elements many houses will be destroyed and thousand will be lost. To such conclusions I come, knowing about quality of constructions in the remote areas and useless preparation of the population for strong state of emergency.
- your institute already repeatedly acted with the prevention that Kyrgyzstan has entered the next phase of seismic activity. How long it will last?
- According to intermediate term forecasts of our experts (and they come true on 75 - 80 %), on Tjan - Shang the period of activization which will proceed till 2026 has begun. Its beginning was marked nurinskim by earthquake in 2008 then the strong pushes confirming our hypothesis have been fixed some more enough. Really, at this time earthquakes the affliction of destructive force will become frequent, expected even. We do not think that it will reach Japanese scale, such events occur extremely seldom. Most likely, there will be some moderate earthquakes by force from 6 to 8 points.
- nevertheless, you declare and considerable destructions of buildings?
- In 2006 in Kochkorke has occurred 8 - mark earthquake. 4 houses have collapsed. In 2008 of the same force earthquake happens in Nure. The whole settlement has been wiped out, 75 persons were lost! Why figures so sharply differ? Obviously, all business in quality of building. In case of natural cataclysms our life will depend in many respects on ourselves: we reside in what houses, a leah we erect sound buildings? After all, as it is known, quality of constructions in rural areas leaves much to be desired. In Bishkek the overwhelming part of skyscrapers is calculated on 9 points though it is impossible to exclude that some etazhki have been constructed with possible infringements. Thus, at strong blow of a mud hut completely will collapse, high-rise buildings – will stand.
As mice have foretold a misfortune
- Kanatbek Ermekovich, name the most dangerous areas of capital?
- the Vulnerable zone – northern part of Bishkek where bad soil conditions and it is a lot of constructions of old type. The second dangerous area – the most southern part of a city adjoining to Ysyk - to the Atinsky break (however, it is enough narrow band). All other part, including microdistricts, safe, and in case of tremors practically will not test damages. Thus we do not wait for earthquakes of more than 8 points. It is important, because, I will repeat, buildings in capital are constructed counting upon 9 points, that is we in a stock have one point, and it is a lot of! As to nearby areas, in a safe zone – the villages located along lines or the railway. The settlements which are more close to the river Chu or mounts get to risk group.
- the Push was on March, 18th not strong, but a lot of noise has done. A leah it is necessary to be afraid of similar shake-ups?
- it will be better let some small earthquakes, than one strong. Underground fluctuations as which we felt last Friday, have been expected, our experts spoke about them. I was surprised with another – the wave of panic hearings that ostensibly on March, 19th, in connection with lunar activity, Bishkek waits tragedy. The people scoop the doubtful information from the Internet, and work a principle « further; sarafannogo radio ». People why - that prefer to believe predictions of Vangi, instead of scientifically well-founded reports of officials. In it, however, there is also our fault. Once a month experts should spend explanatory work among the population. Fortunately, here we could take the plunge, at last. On February, 11th the complex program of urgent measures on preparation of citizens for possible earthquakes has been accepted. Today the mobile group into which employees of the Ministry of Emergency Measures have entered, workers of Institute of seismology and akimiatov, estimates in areas seismic stability first of all schools, hospitals, large constructions and high schools. Simultaneously we prepare for release rollers, we give lectures at universities and schools. If this program is carried out, and I will not admit, that it has turned in kampanejshchinu a year or two from now we will manage to prepare kyrgyzstantsev, having developed iron endurance and discipline.
- ability to foretell cataclysms representatives of fauna possess also. Why domestic scientists not « are converted behind the help » to dumb animals?
- Unfortunately, not enough the statistical data. As a rule, the pair - a three of examples when animal forecasts came true is always resulted. For example, in 1976 in the Alajsky valley it is literally some minutes prior to strong earthquake in one of schools have run out on the class middle … mice. They have gathered in a small group and began to peep! The teacher has appeared the grounded person, has decided that that`s a bad sign. All had time to deduce from a building. The blessing, it has not collapsed. Other case – in the winter of 1986 the peasant has come across in an open field a snake (marmots, gophers, the reptiles who have suddenly cleared up from hibernation, react very sensitively). And in two days the earth was shaken with 6 points. Often enough, some seconds prior to state of emergency, lift zapoloshnyj bark of a dog. The animals who are on the earth, feel a small shiver as which the person is not capable to feel.
in some centres of science there are the special departments which are engaged in forecasts on the basis of behaviour of adders, horses, small fishes. But this method, alas, has no and 60 % of a guarantee.
In the SUBJECT
5 myths about earthquake
the Myth ¹1:
If there will be a seismic accident, the earth will be opened wide, and all of us we will fall in lake which is near Bishkek.
Geologists with absolute confidence declare that it is absurdity: no reservoir under us is present.
the Myth ¹2:
At a strong push the zone along Ysyk - the Atinsky break will be moved apart and after in it houses will fail, again will be closed.
It and at all from fantasy area. The city is in a compression zone where there can not be open cracks. On the one hand on us the Indian plate, with another &ndash moves; the Kazakh.
a myth ¹3:
In case of grandiose state of emergency of Issyk - the Sack will overflow banks also a tsunami wave, having escaped through Boomsky gorge, will deluge the Chujsky hollow.
the Bottom of ours « a blue pearl » more likely, has the mug form, instead of a flat plate. In a bowl it is possible to stir up water so that it was splashed out. But how it is necessary skosobochit half filled mug that the liquid has brimmed over?
a myth ¹4:
During earthquake is better to run on street.
In densely occupied area this variant is unsafe. The ladder platform falls first of all, the lift stops from - for the electricity disconnects, badly strengthened frames on balconies break together with the glasses, in the street the broken wires can amaze with a current. As a result, having been frightened even of weak earthquake, you subject yourselves to serious danger. Optimum – being in the many-storeyed house, to remain in apartment. And pervo - napervo as experts advise to get under a table – it will save from subjects falling from above.
a myth ¹5:
Right after tragedies to us to the aid will come tearing along rescuers with provisions, the first-aid set and tents.
From this dependant, « pofigisticheskogo » judgements it is necessary to get rid. At least, two - three days of the power cannot help victims, as him time is necessary to collect the thoughts and organise search and rescue operations. Learn to render first aid to itself and to associates, after all who knows, when first aid will reach you?