Rus News Journal

Where the rouble will fall?

absence of an agiotage in exchange offices on the New Year`s holidays, some snizhe
  Where the rouble will fall?
Absence of an agiotage in exchange offices on the New Year`s holidays, some decrease in a dollar exchange rate last days, statements of the government for the underestimated rouble exchange rate - all it is faster a good mine at bad game. Probably, the currency market of Russia lives last quiet days. Under forecasts of experts, in the near future it is necessary to wait for sharp jump of a dollar exchange rate. Certainly, if the government does not go on extraordinary measures. Up to restriction of circulation of cash currency.

Sharp jump of quotations of the American currency with opening of the first auctions after New year was quite natural: For holidays at clients of a stock exchange roubles which have been translated at once in currency have collected. In a number of banks the course of sale of cash currency reached to 26 rbl./ $. But soon the raised demand for currency has run low, and innovations of the Central Bank in the field of currency regulation (reduction of terms of realisation of a gain of exporters and increase in volumes of its obligatory sale from 50 % to 75 %) have taken effect. And the dollar exchange rate has temporarily decreased.
but despite numerous statements of the authorities about pereotsenennosti dollar and about general expectations of decrease in its course in connection with budget hearing (in which the mid-annual course 21,5 rbl./ $ is put), quotations of the American currency continue to grow. Yesterday the dollar average rate on a Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange special session has made 22,28 rbl./ $, and at the day auctions - 23,35 rbl./ $. In exchange offices dollar appreciated still above - bought on the average on 23 rbl./ $, and sold on 23,5 rbl./ $. According to participants of the currency auctions, the Central Bank continues to carry out currency interventions, trying to contain dollar exchange rate growth. Its decrease probably today or within the next few days as already yesterday after active buying up of currency by bankers shortage of roubles began to be felt. But even if it also will occur, the rouble is stabilised for a short while. And, according to analysts, the longer the rouble will keep, the its subsequent falling will be stronger. Against an amplifying stream of the negative information and a worsening economic and financial situation in the country it will be day by day more difficult to Central Bank to support rouble. To do it, adhering exclusively to tactics of currency interventions, long it will not be possible - by estimations of independent experts, live currencies at the Central Bank now about $4 billion According to many bankers, a situation now critical, close to the desperate.
it is clear that the Bank of Russia should accept and other measures on rouble support: Many analysts consider that change of operating rules of currency regulation - a question of several weeks. Probably as well new pressure upon exporters. However, all it will allow to simulate only any time rouble health, and in February dollar, under forecasts of participants of the market, can jump to a mark 30 - 35 rbl./ $. If, of course, the financial authorities do not go on restriction of circulation of currency - hearings about it go for a long time already.

OLGA - MAKSIMOVA