Last hope of the budgetCurrency is necessary to the Russian treasury more than ever: a default phantom on - former on poro
Last hope of the budget
the Currency is necessary to the Russian treasury more than ever: a default phantom on - former on a threshold of the White house. The currency is given first of all by oil industry workers and gazoviki though the world prices for oil have fallen to 40 % less than for a year. And nevertheless the government enters export duties on oil, oil products, gas, copper and nickel. Currency export will be reduced, and hopes of the government fills up the budget on $1 mlrd can not to come true.
In 1996 Victor Tchernomyrdin`s government has cancelled all export duties. On liberalisation of the Russian export has drawn IMF, but as a result competitiveness of the Russian goods on the world markets has grown. Thus in 1996 - 1997 the world prices for the basic components of the Russian export - oil and gas - were quite favorable. For example, in 1997 the Russian oil was on sale for $120 for ton.
last year the world conjuncture has sharply worsened. Our oil can be sold now no more than for $70 for ton. And falling of the prices, apparently, will proceed. The prices and for other Russian export goods - black and nonferrous metals, wood, oil products have fallen. And nevertheless on January, 4th and 11 the prime minister has signed two decisions, the customs duties establishing rate for export of variety of the raw goods, including natural gas, oil products, copper, nickel and products from them. Within the next few days the document and on introduction of the export duty on crude oil will be signed.
At first sight, rates are insignificant - 5 % from customs cost (on gas the combined duty - 5 %, but not less 2 euros for ton is established, it is supposed to raise from oil ton not less than 2,5 euros). Oil industry workers consider that at the present prices additional withdrawal even $3 from oil ton will be made by oil export unprofitable.
nevertheless, in the government do not see alternative to replenishment of the budget at the expense of export duties. In total in 1999 of the State Customs Committee should collect from exporters about $1 mlrd that will make almost 5 % of a profitable part of the budget.
thus Primakov`s government pursues not only the fiscal purposes. For export of variety of the goods protecting duties will be established, in essence. Since January, 4th they already operate concerning a waste and a breakage of nonferrous metals, forest products, olive cultures - the export duty rate is established on them at a rate of 10 % from customs cost (on top internal black oil for the winter period - 10 EKJU for ton). In the White house hope that protecting duties become one of sources of industrial growth as the raw materials which at present low internal solvent demand are more favourable for taking out abroad, remains in Russia.
however entering export duties on oil and gas that any way to fill the budget, the government there and then refuses the slogan of economic growth. Arguments of petroexporters and the manufacturers proving that introduction even small duties will lead to the termination of internal investments, on the government have made a boomerang effect. The initial idea to impose with the customs duties only oil industry workers was transformed to the program of introduction of export duties practically on all Russian raw materials and even half-finished products. For example, it is supposed to fill up treasury at the expense of exporters of almost all kinds of nonferrous metals.
However, oil lobbyists nevertheless managed to reach the compromise with the government. According to the decision project about the statement of the rate of the export duty on oil, Ministry of Trade and Ministry of Fuel and Energy will spend ezhemjasjachnyj monitoring of the world prices for the Russian oil. Under condition of their falling to level of $9,5 for barrel (about $67 for ton) duty collection will be suspended for thirty calendar days.
KONSTANTIN - LEVIN