The Central Bank has won inflationIn the sense that he for it does not answer
Yesterday deputies of the State Duma and have simultaneously received the project “ the Basic directions uniform state monetary - the credit policy for 2002 “. The central bank in this document assumes that next year the rouble sharply will not fall, and inflation will make 12 - 14 %. If it will not turn out, the Central Bank it will be perfect at anything.
the document Begins with that explanation why this year inflation has appeared above planned. It was supposed 12 - 14 % for a year, and for first seven months there were 13,2 %. Already clearly that the plan will be considerably exceeded. And high inflation is unpleasant to the central bank of any country: whatever you may say, and it is responsible for it.
the Central Bank Is protected is extremely thin. In - the first, it is underlined that inflation this year “ will exceed target indicators, but will be more low, than last year “ (was about 20 %). Differently, still it is not known, whether it is necessary to justify: all - taki progress will reach. In - the second, economic growth can exceed originally planned 5 %, and it is such merit monetary - the credit policy of the Central Bank in comparison with which high inflation simply grows dim. In - the third, this year the Central Bank “ has entered into realisation practice monetary - the credit policy use of elements of target inflation “. Differently, struggled with inflation as could, subordinating these purposes and the politician of the monetary offer, and the politician of the rate of exchange. Directly as Bank of England. In - the fourth, the Central Bank increased this year monetary weight much more slowly, than last year (in 2000 for seven months it has increased by 32,2 %, and in 2001 - m - by 16,3 %). And if inflation depended on the Central Bank all would be in a full order. But inflation did not depend on monetary weight: in January - May of the price have increased by 10,9 %, and monetary weight - all on 7,8 %. In - the fifth why inflation grew, it is approximately clear: natural monopolies increased tariffs, and the government supposed “ non-uniformity of an expenditure of budgetary funds “. And here - that the Central Bank absolutely at anything.
As to a rouble exchange rate then thanks to efforts of the Central Bank in general all is simply remarkable. Currency interventions have allowed to avoid sharp rate fluctuations. It has simply smoothly gone down in January - July on 4,1 % (and never was such that for a month the course has decreased more than on 1,1 %). Simultaneously the Central Bank accumulated currency reserves, so as a result “ the monetary base in recalculation at a rouble current rate has been completely provided by reserve actives of Bank of Russia in foreign currency and gold that specifies in stability of the Russian national currency “.
Till the end of the year all will be so remarkable. However, as the document, " hints; In the internal currency market during the remained period measures carried out by the state on liberalisation of the currency legislation " can render certain influence on a situation;. Differently, there can be everyone - but not because of the Central Bank.
that next year? The Central Bank will try not to admit, that the rouble has started to fall quickly in relation to dollar, differently will not be “ trust growth to national currency “. However, keeping a policy of the floating rate of exchange, the bank does not incur any certain obligations. As to currency liberalisation the Central Bank will continue to support its such variant at which dollars would not leave Russia, and on the contrary, came.
the rate of inflation will appear, it is natural, more low, than this year. The bank will continue use of elements of a method of target inflation. The rise in prices at last - that will make 12 - 14 % at the rate of December by December. But, as in advance warns the Central Bank, the set of factors will play advantage of a rise in prices, including even necessity for the enterprises to update fixed capital. And in general, inflation decrease “ probably only provided that the government will take necessary measures “.
deputies, of course, can have a question: the Central Bank though something to guarantee could not? For example, a course or a rate of inflation. The Central Bank can answer it that the method of target inflation excludes planning of the rate of exchange. As to a rate of inflation with it in general it is necessary to address to the government. And deputies should approve this project “ the Basic directions... “. Or in general any.
SERGEY - MINAEV