With whom Russia will be on friendly terms and at enmity?
the solid Italian magazine Limes specialising on geopolitical forecasts, undertook to foretell, what role will be played by Russia in the European affairs to exod of the first quarter of this century. And, it is necessary to tell, the prospect traced by the Italian analysts, looks rather iridescent for our country.
Russia predicts strong membership in the general “ club “ the leading countries of Europe - together with Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
To this European kernel, under the magazine version, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus will join. And here Romania, Poland, the Baltic States, Great Britain, Sweden and Georgia will make opposite, pro-American camp. Other states of the Old World or will take of a neutral position, or will establish the usual partner connexion with Moscow.
But there is more to come. The edition asserts that Russia itself becomes the centre of the new union on the post-Soviet territory - new analogue of the USSR. This union will include Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Tajikistan, and also the certain new state created in territory of the Central Ukraine. “ Zapadenshchina “ will break away and becomes the small neutral country. The Volynsk area, on calculations of Italians, will depart to Belarus. And east and southern Ukrainian areas together with Crimea... Russia will be a part. Full merge to the Russian Federation designate also for Kirghizia which thus in the manner of the Kaliningrad region will turn to the Russian enclave - only in Central Asia.
According to experts Limes, the reasons of such scenario are simple: strengthening of positions of Russia in the world. And not only as leading supplier of energy carriers, but also as solid political player. Besides, the irrepressible pressing forward of the USA on - former rulit the European allies calls the increasing aversion not only in Moscow, but also in capitals of leading powers of EU. And it is a tendency...
this forecast is how much real, we have asked to respond known political scientists.
OPINIONS of EXPERTS
Alexander RAR, the director of programs of Russia and the CIS the German advice on foreign policy: “ While EU exists - such it is impossible “
- Certainly, it is the big compliment to Russia. In Italy there are rather witty magazines which concerns and Limes but while it is impossible to speak about similar motions. It is faster than gamble on a subject. All it can be realised, only if EU collapses.
In the relation of details of this plan it is possible to tell the following. Really, today in EU there is a certain watershed between friends and foes of Russia. And continental Europe, except for Poland, Baltic and more the several states, builds friendly relations from the Russian Federation. However, and in Sweden the aversion of today`s Russia now prevails.
the Forecast about Ukraine too is explainable. There there are borders, army, other attributes of the state. But here the nation Ukrainian - it till now did not blind. Actually today`s Ukrainian political elite personifies ideas of the Western Ukraine. And East Ukraine in this plan practically is not presented. And taking into account possible economic and political shocks all these disagreements can pass to a political plane and split the country.
Sergeys MARKS, the director of Institute of political researches: “ These are real tendencies “
- the Picture of the world drawn Limes, reflects real tendencies. But not the fact that they are realised. Certainly, the European Union tests dissatisfaction from is artificial prolonged “ cold war “ when Russia try to alienate from it. To the detriment of stability of deliveries of energy carriers. After all it is pro-American administration of Ukraine has provoked gas scandal, influence of Washington has provoked war in South Ossetia, pro-American modes of the Baltic States and Poland constantly create problems. And the Big Europe is extremely dissatisfied with it.
And from here gravitation of leaders of Germany, France, Italy to the strategic union with Russia. Therefore between leaders of Russia and the leading EU countries a certain big strategic contract is possible. Its bases were already designated by Putin in the performance in rejhstage: you on a maximum share with us technologies, and we on a maximum suppose you to the natural resources. Such contract is exclusively favourable EU and Russia, but... Does unnecessary presence of the USA at Europe. Here the Italian magazine also has noticed this tendency.
One more important point - division of the former USSR into the present Russian Federation and other states is in many respects artificial. It has occurred against the will of the people of these states, and the extremely favourable it and economy reintegratsija now, is besides artificial, restrains external influence. This influence in Ukraine is especially strong. Look, on all key political problems the pro-American management of Ukraine takes not of people position, and a position of Washington.
Yes, the European Union is an important player on a political scene. But before our eyes occurs political raskonsolidatsija EU, and at the initiative of Americans. Same they have divided Europe on old - Proeuropean, and new - pro-American. And to the European Union as whole exclusively favourably economic cooperation with Russia. And political raskonsolidatsija also creates the precondition for the union of an old part of EU from the Russian Federation.