The review of the market of currencies for a week, 8 - on March, 12th
If to the middle of week, observing euro falling on 100 points and decrease in pound more than on 200, still it was possible to expect continuation of strengthening of the American currency in the end it became obvious that both the euro, and pound have beaten off from the minima 1. 3535 and 1. 4870 accordingly also have finished week increase.
Support USD till Wednesday inclusive was rendered by all former moods in the market, connected with an unsuccessful financial situation in Europe, against a rather poor fundamental background.
Again it is necessary to note and saved pressure on deficiency of the state budget of Greece and recent statements of rating agency Moody`s concerning Germany. Besides, again in sight of experts Portugal which risks has got to lose the credit rating “ AA “ if the government does not undertake measures on national economy support. Let`s remind that in September agency Fitch has changed the forecast on the country with “ stable “ on “ negative “ and last Monday the Portuguese authorities already have presented the plan on reduction of deficiency of the state budget which has made about 9 % of gross national product in 2009, to 2,8 % to 2013.
At the same time the plan of the British government on budgeted deficit decrease on 50 % for 4 years is represented to experts “ too long “ therefore, in their opinion, in order to avoid serious tests for economy the authorities of Great Britain should be accelerated. It is necessary to notice that current financial year the forecast of deficiency of the state budget makes about 13 % from gross national product. Nevertheless, analysts believe that before summarising of future parliamentary elections a credit rating of the country (“ AAA “) Most likely, will not undergo changes.
However to the middle of week of fear of participants of the market rather “ the Athenian problems “ have been removed on the second plan as all looks of investors have been converted to China where the positive economic data could signal about faster toughening monetary - the credit policy. Besides, serious leap has made the British pound after results spent by Bank of England of poll devoted to inflationary expectations, have specified in some growth of inflation (2,5 % vs. 2,4 % in last accounting period).
Growth of share indexes in a weekend also has supported competitors of dollar: the investors having large dollar actives, began to refuse restriction of losses, considering USD as a sale subject, and were inclined in favour of more risky actives.
Thus, on Friday of euro has shown a maximum of week 1. 3796, the pound was closed hardly more low 1. 5200. Pair dollar/ the franc, opened week hardly more low 1. 0750 and hardly was not punched resistance 1. 0800, has left more low 1. 0600.
as to Japanese currency it and could not fix a parity of pair USD/ JPY more low 89. 00, but also above 91 yens is not has left, having closed a week at level 90. 44. A sharp course of pair to a maximum of week 91. 07 connect with words of premieres - the minister of Japan that the national currency became “ too strong “.
the Forecast for the next week, 15 - on March, 19th
From economic news to which it is necessary to pay attention the next week, the most interesting, as usual, will be the data on States.
It and decision FRS under the basic interest rate, and release of figures on inflation, and the publication of the data on industrial sector, and an exit of indicators of volumes of purchases of the American securities foreign investors. Despite abundant of news, according to forecasts of economists, any of indicators will not show positive dynamics: industrial indexes promise to fall, interest rates - to remain at former level, rates of increase of the prices - to be slowed down. Accordingly, hardly it is necessary to expect that against expectations of noted publications the national currency of the USA will find essential support though if actual figures leave unexpectedly good, moreover and former head FRS Alan Grinspen making speech about crisis, will add a positive then the dollar and can become stronger.
Speaking about price levels, it is possible to notice that the euro/ dollar in a weekend has confidently cleared the bar 1. 3700, having managed to be fixed above 1. 3750. Thereupon level 1 becomes the nearest purpose forthcoming week. 4000. However, if problems of Greece and others “ depressive “ The EU countries again begin to excite minds in process of occurrence of news (on Monday of Athena report to EU about progress in performance of plans on reduction of expenses), recoil to 1 is possible. 3500.
For pound while level 1 remains support. 5100. Level 1. 5200 costs on a way upwards, to 1. 5400 (after which passage it will be possible to look aside 1. 5500).