Our banks will not fail, while oil will not fall below $25 for barrel
Such question the first vice-president of the Central Bank Alexey Uljukaev and the post-graduate student of stand " were set; the Finance and the credit “ economic faculty of the Moscow State University Danilov`s Elizabeth. Their joint work where this pessimistic scenario is played, is published in magazine “ Money and credits “. Authors of work have spent original stress - the test of our economy the price for oil of $25 for barrel was which main condition. It has appeared, what exactly at such cost “ oil “ the share of non-payments under credits at the Russian banks can reach 10 %. In this case even at the Savings Bank and VTB the big problems though the state promised to support by all means in this situation backbone financial institutions rouble can begin. Thus, for barrel it is possible to consider $25 as strength of bank system, that is if the prices for oil do not fall below this mark, the financial sphere in the country will keep more - less confidently. Now, according to official figures, volume “ bad “ credits at our banks makes 3,1 %.
- According to expert estimations real non-payments under credits have already reached 10 %, - Vasily Solodkov, the director of Bank institute of the Higher school of economy makes comments. - and according to some information, also exceeds this figure. While banks manage to cover these nonpayments thanks to high rates under credits. Certainly, 10 % “ bad “ credits is very disturbing factor. On the other hand, $25 for barrel are very pessimistic deal. Now, for example, there were positive trends: oil rises in price, stock markets grow. Someone has already started to speak about the recession end.
we Will remind, under the governmental forecast, oil should not fall this year below $41 for barrel. While “ oil “ bargains at world stock exchanges at the price of $56 for barrel.