The bewitched brotherlast week has actually refused to run the Kremlin business with the Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko. However Belarus — it not Ukraine where unfriendly Victor Yushchenko as a result has lost Russia to the Prorussian Victor Yanukovych. And the more so not Georgia from which Moscow presumed to break off relations and even to do some fighting.
the president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev and its Belarus colleague Alexander Lukashenko have ceased to hide mutual hostility. On the eve of December presidential election in Belarus the Kremlin expresses Lukashenko in such expressions which only such foes of Russia, as the former president of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko and the Georgian leader Michael Saakashvili till now received.
the first Alexander Lukashenko has become personal. On October, 1st during a traditional meeting with the Russian journalists it has exposed those who stands up for information attack to it from the Russian NTV television channel which has let out in an aether extremely topical political thrillers “ the God father “ and “ the God father - 2 “. “ It is Medvedev`s command, - the Belarus leader has told. - I do not know, how much it is supported by Putin. Though I have data that it occupies the same position. But that is a president`s team, we know and we know that it for a command. It “ wetted “ Shaymiev. That has easy left. Murtazu Rakhimov inclined. Then to Ilyumzhinov has stolen up. Then me have taken. Then Luzhkov. They are the same people “.
In a course a press - conferences the president of Belarus has made and many other statements which have angered the Kremlin. It has supported Yury Luzhkov dismissed with scandal: “ It is impossible to dismiss on such bases. At it next year, on - to mine, term comes to an end. So, what, nevterpezh was? “ has accused the Russian authorities of financing of its political opponents, having informed about intercepted on border with Belarus $200 thousand, ostensibly intending to the Belarus opposition. Has passed an opinion on the internal political device in the Russian Federation: “ I Consider that in Russia governors and heads should be selected “.
In the Kremlin deliberated over the answer of more days. And then have decided to answer in the checked up way - by means of a presidential video blog. On Sunday on October, 3rd on a site of the president of the Russian Federation there was a roller in which Dmitry Medvedev has chided the colleague and the partner in Union State of Russia and Belarus: “ I remember, how has been surprised, when at our first bilateral meeting instead of concentrating on Russian - the Belarus cooperation, it it is detailed and exclusive in a negative manner has begun to discuss my predecessors on a post of the president of Russia - Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin “. Then Medvedev has scarified Alexander Lukashenko for default to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And making comments on recent offences of the obstinate colleague, Dmitry Medvedev was indignant with that that interferes with internal affairs of Russia and builds the election campaign on charges to Moscow: “ He is disturbed by much: and putting in order in our economic relations, and dialogue of the Russian mass media with the Belarus opposition, and even destiny of some our high-ranking pensioners and the dismissed officials. To the president of Belarus followed deal with internal problems. Including at last to investigate numerous cases about disappearance of people. Russia, as well as to other countries, it is not indifferent “.
Answering attacks Lukashenko, Dmitry Medvedev used tactics to which already resorted during opposition with Victor Yushchenko. In August, 2009 when to presidential election in Ukraine remains about two months, the president of the Russian Federation has directed Yushchenko the angry message in which has informed that do not intend to run business with the Ukrainian president before power change in Kiev. For fidelity Dmitry Medvedev has explained the position also in a video blog.
new times in relations of Moscow and Kiev have come with coming to power in Ukraine Victor Yanukovych. And now in Russia let know that similar end of the conflict to Minsk - that is power change there following the results of presidential election planned for December, 19th - would be the ideal ending. “ Recently relations with the Belarus management, obviously, were at a deadlock, - has declared last week a press - Dmitry Medvedev Natalia Timakova`s secretary. - These relations will not be former “.
Thus, the Kremlin directly recognised that henceforth Lukashenko has taken a place in the same row with such politicians, as Victor Yushchenko and the Georgian president Michael Saakashvili. Simultaneously Moscow has shown that though the USSR has failed 20 years ago, it considers the former Soviet republics as a zone of the Russian influence and is ready to interfere with their internal political processes. So was with Ukraine where the Kremlin has put on Yanukovych. Then with Kirghizia where Russia at first has supported opponents of former president Kurmanbeka Bakieva, and before the elections which have passed in Sunday in the Kirghiz parliament in every possible way helped the former prime minister of the country Felix Kulovu who was accepted by Dmitry Medvedev. The similar situation develops and with Moldova where in November parliamentary elections will take place. Moscow does not hide sympathies for the leader of Moldavian Democratic party Marianu a Magnifier, showing presidential ambitions.
meanwhile today`s Belarus differs from all listed countries where elite changes from time to time - or as a result of elections as in Ukraine, or by means of revolution as in Kirghizia. For 16 years of the board Alexander Lukashenko has smoothed out a political field so that the worthy opponent to it is not looked through. It also has made it quite on - are Russian. The most known Belarus oppositionist Alexander Kozulin condemned in 2006 for the organisation of mass riots, and subsequently released on freedom under the pressure of the West, does not represent any threat as has no right to stand in presidents. Other applicants for a presidential armchair, such as the leader of civil campaign “ The European Belarus “ Andrey Sannikov or political scientist Yaroslav Romanchuk, and hardly seriously trust in a victory. Though with the beginning of an open phase Russian - the Belarus conflict their activity considerably became more active.
nevertheless to achieve Alexander Lukashenko`s leaving from a political scene by support of its opponents it is almost impossible. The Belarus special services in a condition to stop any unfriendly activity, in particular the financial help of opposition and zabrasyvanie to Belarus political strategists from the outside. Besides, as long-term practice shows, local agents of national security never stood on ceremony and with organizers of the street protests which suppression occurs much more rigidly, than in Russia. At last, the neighbouring country Central Electoral Committee in perfection owns art of summarising of elections according to wishes of presidential administration and personally Alexander Lukashenko what last with pride admitted time and again. On a press - conferences on October, 1st he has told that after presidential election of 2006 has personally charged to the Central Electoral Commission to reduce quantity of the voices submitted for it. According to the president of Belarus, for it then has voted more than 90 % of voters, but it has instructed to lower defiantly high percent as to it it was inconvenient before Europeans.
in this situation Moscow has shown readiness to go on extreme measures. For example, not recognise result of future Belarus elections. Earlier observers from Russia and the CIS countries unlike the western colleagues always characterised election campaigns in Belarus as “ democratic “ and “ corresponding to the international standards “. Now the Russian officials have started talking refusing former practice.
the first the head of the Duma committee of affairs of the CIS Alexey Ostrovsky who has declared that " has in this respect expressed; Russia, probably, time has come to follow the lead of the western colleagues and or not to direct the observers on elections to Belarus, or, having directed them, directly to tell that there occurs, and to call into question legality of possible election of Alexander Lukashenko “. Then on this theme Natalia Timakova has expressed: “ Representatives of the Russian authorities do not make comments “ kind “ Alexander Lukashenko`s relations to oppositionists, degree of realisation of political freedoms in Belarus, destiny of many political opponents of the president of this country not because to us nothing to tell, and for ethical reasons “. The Kremlin was confused even with that the similar statement puts Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation in awkward position, whose ethical installations look ambiguously enough: there though know about offences of a mode of Lukashenko, but prefer not to extend about them.
but as it was found out, to Minsk to eat than answer and it. Referring to not named sources in a press there was an information that if Moscow realises the threats, Lukashenko will make the decision on an exit of Belarus from Union State with Russia, and also from the CIS, ODKB and the Customs union. As a matter of fact, the Belarus authorities have led how concerning the foreign policy opponents Moscow, punishing with their economic sanctions and interdictions for import in the Russian Federation that of Georgian wine, Moldavian, mineral water " usually operates; Borzhomi “. A difference that Minsk has threatened with political sanctions, which to it quite under force.
it has a little damped an aggressive ardour of the Russian side. At once some sources “ the Authorities “ in the Kremlin administration, the State Duma and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia named a current situation “ patovoj “. “ it is obvious that Lukashenkos will re-elect. And we should recognise this fact. Us in this case not the destiny of the Belarus president, and Belarus entering in so important for us the economic project as the Customs union and other integration associations, - argued in conversation with " more interests; the Power “ the Russian official supervising the relations with Minsk. - it is impossible to forget and about incorporated system of antiaircraft defence of our countries “. According to the interlocutor “ the Authorities “ the parties probably should search for a compromise variant: “ the Exit one - Lukashenko in any form apologises, and Medvedev crosses through personal insult and continues work with Minsk in interests of Russia “.
If events will develop under this scenario, Dmitry Medvedev and Alexander Lukashenko in the future should show to the public remarkable actor`s talent and indifferently to meet with each other after everything that between them has occurred. By the way, possibility will for this purpose be presented soon enough - the next summit ODKB which will take place in Moscow is planned for December. And the Belarus leader should arrive not simply to the Russian capital, but also to accept from hands of president Medvedev presidency in this organisation.