Than the next gas war will end?Valery Nesterov, analyst on oil and gas IK “ the Three Dialogue “:
- the Conflict has caused concern among gas consumers. Europe has once again reflected on reliability of gas supply and “ Gazprom “ as supplier. Uncertainty of consumers is aggravated with rather high prices for the Russian gas and known inflexibility of a price policy “ Gazprom “.
It is possible to expect that reaction of the European consumers will be traditional. In - the first, reduction of consumption of gas. Elementary economy plus replacement of gas by other kinds of fuel are capable to give very much. The second series of measures is already taking place diversification of suppliers. Civil-engineering designs of new terminals for szhizhennogo will get some natural gas, underground storehouses of natural gas and pipeline deliveries of the African and Caspian gas additional political support. The third answer consists in development of renewed energy sources and atomic engineering.
these measures have already allowed such countries as Germany, Italy and Turkey, to strengthen the trunk-call positions with “ Gazprom “. And the Russian supplier behaves with them more flexibly, than with other consumers. Another matter that at least till 2015 the majority of the European countries will keep high dependence from “ Gazprom “ as in Europe there is no uniform gas-transport system. However, the next years a number of gas pipelines - interkonnekterov should enter into a system, connecting the EU countries and allowing if necessary to throw considerable volumes of gas.
Dmitry Ljutjagin, main analyst IK “ Veles the Capital “:
- I would not began to compare a situation to Belarus with the Ukrainian. At the moment of the gas conflict to Ukraine the status of young independent democracy has been fixed to it, than and the negative rhetoric of the West in the policy address " has been caused; Gazprom “. In Belarus the mode is unfriendly to Europeans, therefore and the relation of the West to the conflict, most likely, will be other.
Besides, volumes of prorolling of gas through Belarus more low, than through Ukraine, and “ to Gazprom “ it is possible to throw them on already friendly to us Ukraine. I believe that the basic negotiations on roundabout routes have already passed, many projects are already co-ordinated and even are in a realisation stage. Moreover, from - for crisis the European gas market has changed also, the share of Russia on it in 2009 has fallen with 28 to 25 %.
As to incomes “ Gazprom “ the termination of sales of gas of Belarus will lower them. Russia sells to Belarus to 20 - 21 mlrd cubic m of gas a year, and it about $3,2 - 3,4 mlrd gains even at the old prices. Concerning other Russian companies I believe that to them claims at the Belarus authorities should not be, as they own only shares in processing. Own budget Byelorussians “ koshmarit “ will not be.
Denis Barabanov, n achalnik analytical department IK “ Grandis the Capital “:
- the Reasons for pressure upon Belarus a little. Besides political and economic, besides desire of Russia to strengthen in republic and so on it is impossible to exclude the positions and a building question “ Northern stream “. New problems will make the European countries more compliant.
consequences for “ Gazprom “ At the worst development of the scenario will be approximately same, as during gas war with Ukraine. That is the part of deliveries can be reoriented on the Ukrainian pipelines, the blessing with Ukraine relations were normalised. Now summer, and problems with the European partners will not be such sharp. Therefore influence on stock quotes “ Gazprom “ it will appear minimum. Plus “ Gazprom “ counts on demand restoration in Europe and rise in prices for gas. All understand that it already happened repeatedly and that finally the question will be solved.
Alexey Golubovich, chairman of board of directors UK “ Arbat the Capital “:
- Consumers in the EU countries will react only in case of infringement of the Russian obligations on deliveries. Belarus will not receive political support. In spite of the fact that actions “ Gazprom “ Do not promote improvement of its image, the Belarus government as it stands will not receive that support in EU which appeared to westernized Victor Yushchenko. There will be no Antirussian campaign in mass-media and political pressure as it was in gas wars with Ukraine.
“ Gazprom “ can have certain losses in incomes, first of all from - for necessities to redirect gas streams. But about nationalisation of its actives in Belarus speech does not go. The Belarus president is pragmatic enough, so far as concerns the concrete enterprises: if they make profit, taxes pay to it, it will not select them. Badly it is necessary to those Russian companies and investors who has had time to enclose a part of money in the project, but has not had time to leave on a break-even sales level or the profits, allowing to interest the Belarus authorities. At the such can select sites, licences and etc.
I Will notice that partly the conflict can be caused necessity “ Compulsions to cooperation “ in frameworks while and not created Customs union. But more it is similar to a preventive measure not to allow the Belarus government to increase debts and to try to play games which have been allowed to the former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Timoshenko.