Russian and World Newsthe Decision of the Central Bank of China to pass from rigid control of yuan to softer currency policy stock markets have met the Chinese engine of trade on hurrah. But already next day investors have realised that have overestimated a news positive about yuan revaluation then share indexes have gone downwards.
On last days off the National bank of China declared that plans to return to flexible yuan, having refused a rigid binding of its course to dollar. Now the yuan will be kept in frameworks of a currency corridor in relation to a basket of leading world currencies, including, of course, and dollar.
thus, China has returned to currency practice which existed before crisis since 2005. To a rigid binding of yuan to dollar of the Central Bank of China has returned in 2008 then its course has been frozen at level 6,83 yuans for dollar where was all this time. It is supposed that in the near future yuan strengthening will be gradual, to 0,5 % daily. Within this corridor the yuan also has become stronger last Monday. For the first time since 2005 its cost has risen on 0,4 %, to 6,80 yuans for dollar.
positive reaction of the European and American authorities has not kept itself waiting, they welcomed this step of the Chinese government. For example, head ETSB Jean - Claude Trishe has declared: “ This decision conducts to bolshej to stability and prosperity of all partners of China “. Americans were More laconic. “ certainly, we are pleased by this decision “ - its representative Bill Barton has stated to journalists a position of the White house.
return to strong yuan - long-awaited event as for European, and (even in a greater degree) for the American partners of China. For them the cheap yuan was a strong irritant as lowered competitiveness of their production in Heavenly Empire. For this reason for the Chinese government time and again it was necessary to listen in the address to the criticism from the American colleagues. Latest scandal has burst in March when congressmen have demanded to impose with penal tariffs the goods exported by China. In some states from threats have passed to business, having started even a writing of corresponding laws.
from the political point of view the decision of China to strengthen yuan has appeared in time as it is impossible more in time, just on the eve of planned on 26 - on June, 27th sessions of leaders “ the big twenty “ in Toronto. However from the point of view of economic all not so is simple. During crisis cheapness of yuan welcomed, as thanks to it the Chinese economy practically alone formed demand in the commodity markets and grew on 8 % a year. Now the Chinese officials specify more in long-term advantages of strong yuan. “ in long-term prospect the big flexibility of national currency will allow the Chinese manufacturers to improve efficiency and to lower dependence of economy on export “ - reports AP the official point of view of the Central Bank of China.
under official forecasts, till the end of current year the yuan can become stronger in relation to dollar on 3 - 5 %. The Positive effect of the Chinese policy will feel China much later, than other large economy. More expensive yuan will promote a rise in prices in the commodity markets as together with yuan in the Peoples Republic of China cost of manufacture of the raw goods will grow also. Simultaneously it will open doors in the country to exporters with cheaper raw materials.
besides other refusal of a rigid binding to dollar means that the Central Bank of China begins to buy less the American bonds that will lead to dollar easing. However, some experts consider that refusal of purchase of dollar actives will not put essential blow on the American currency. The reasons were specified in interview to Reuters agency by the economist of agency Fitch Bryan Kulton: “ Expected strengthening of yuan will increase inflow of the capital to China, and it will lead to growth of currency reserves of the country and will strengthen necessity to invest them in liquid American state bonds “.
Whatever were the long-term consequences of a new Chinese currency policy, stock markets have met this news amicable growth. Last Monday the Asian indexes have risen more than on 3 %. After them growth the American markets have opened, however they could not keep a positive spirit and were closed in an insignificant minus. The leading European markets have grown on 1 - 1,3 %. The Russian markets have followed to the European example: the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has left upwards on 2,8 %, RTS index - on 3,4 %. But by Tuesday optimism of investors has run low, and together with it share indexes have drooped also: Russian, for example, have fallen to 1,4 %.