Rus News Journal

For that to wait from the power?

the central bank became the political crisis reason

last day VIII congress vitse - prime minister Vladimir Shumejko has declared that in Russia the constitutional crisis is not present, and there is a crisis political, reflecting collision of supporters of fast reforms and slow occurrence in the market. In the economic agenda of congress these collisions were showed in a question on control over the Central bank and off-budget funds.

the requirement to bridle credit issue was One of the major substantiations which were put forward by the government for an establishment of the control over the Central bank. However, that almost simultaneously with the requirement to strengthen control over credit issue the government in the person vitse - prime minister Boris Fedorova has addressed to the chairman of the Central Bank Victor Gerashchenko with the request for allocation of the credit for financing of priority branches of a national economy for the sum 10 trln roubles for a period of 10 years under 10 % of annual percent with payment, since 1996 became unexpected. And this with the fact that credit issue for all 1992 has made only 6,6 trln roubles - at ready more than crediting severe constraints. It is obvious that the debts on percentage payments by 1996 will be almost completely depreciated, and it presumes to pay to the government it and it is ready before the provided ten years` term. The central bank has limited crediting volume only 1,5 trln roubles. In the event that the bank would be subordinated to the government, the question on allocation 10 trln would not demand the special reference vitse - a premiere, and would be solved automatically.
submission of the Central bank to the government would mean a model choice developments of economic enclaves within the limits of rigidly set branch priorities at stagnation and decline of large files of an economy. Though it also can sound unexpectedly, but the most probable consequence of such way of development - certainly, within the limits of preservation of the democratic form of government - there would be an inflation strengthening. The anklavnaja model in modern Russia reminds a variation on a theme socialism constructions in separately taken country based, truth, on a priority of short-term interests of the western creditors, namely, on their interest in the prompt payment of the delayed debts by Russia. As other basis of this model the belief of some members of the cabinet that priority branches will extend all economy serves. Nevertheless, following the results of socially - economic development of Russia in 1992 on a share priority key economic branches it was necessary already about 70 % of cost industrial output. Even if to make the amendment on the occurred price shifts in favour of key economic branches, it means that already today selective the policy of the government in essence is guided by a considerable part of economy, and, from the point of view of requirements of financing, the side between a selective and not selective policy is erased. Quantitative swelling of financial expenses for development of priority branches in conditions anklavnogo developments will be strengthened by the factor of the branch egoism as which example the offer of Ministry of Fuel and Energy on clearing of the enterprises of branch from obligatory sale of currency can serve the state. It is remarkable, what exactly the Central bank has opposed this offer which set up a mine under expectations of the western creditors and domestic supporters anklavnogo the developments, priority branches staking, as a matter of fact, on altruism.
the same egoism will prove and at the decision of questions of financing. The rigid binding of a financial policy to inquiries of priority manufactures will cause infringement of the mechanism of counterbalances in the course of influence on the Central bank from the various ministries, will definitively deprive of its possibility to maneuver in the course of natural branch lobbying. The most probable consequence in this case becomes increase in credit issue.
deficiency of financial resources at the government results also from - for swappings of budgetary funds in off-budget funds where they are often used uncontrolledly. Thus volumes of means at the disposal of these funds are comparable to the sizes of the state budget. Only deductions in the Pension fund are planned for 1993 at a rate of 2860 mlrd roubles. According to experts of the Ministry of Finance, transfer of means to off-budget funds conducts to an aggravation of inflation and strikes double blow to the budget. In - the first, deductions in the off-budget funds brought from the cost price, allow to underestimate profit and, accordingly, profit taxes, and also to increase the cost price, urging on inflation of costs. In - the second, for softening of inflation of costs the government is compelled to reduce profit tax rates, even more aggravating deficiency of the state budget. Thereupon transfer of off-budget funds could soften deficiency of budgetary funds at the government and will lower level of a conflictness of its relations with the Central bank. However the mechanism of use of these means is not fulfilled yet - though return of budgetary funds would allow to carry out civilised registration of an internal debt and to give an impulse for development operations in the open market . Possibly also strengthening of use of means of off-budget funds on their special-purpose designation at reduction of purely commercial operations. However how much consistently it will be possible to carry out these measures, depends on resistance of a management of funds, its influence in the higher echelons of power. Thereupon possibility of search and original variants, for example, attraction of means of funds for financing of priority branches is not excluded.