I cause fire on theFrom NATO blows across Yugoslavia have lost all. As the winner can consider itself roofing felt
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From NATO blows across Yugoslavia have lost all. As the winner one person - the Yugoslavian president Slobadan Milosevic can consider itself only. Because it belongs to that type of governors which have learnt to transform country defeats into the victories. This formula, seemingly, finds the adherents and in Russia.
to the First - at once after NATO blows across Yugoslavia - support to Milosevic was expressed by Bagdad. “ the Yugoslavian president Slobadan Milosevic follows Saddam Hussein`s strategy on opposition to the United States “ - with pride the official Iraq newspaper " has written; Al - Taura “.
This statement is true only partly. Strategy at these two governors really similar. However Milosevic can apply for its authorship with not smaller, than Saddam, the basis.
strategy of present governors of Bagdad and Belgrad is simple. It is necessary to provide simply the country with the external enemy and to hold the people in constant pressure. Years of board of Saddam and Milosevic is an incessant struggle for “ national interests “. But results of this struggle in both countries are identical: the state territory is reduced as a pebble-leather, the people suffers, and the power of leaders is unshakable. Them name “ fathers of the people “ though actually they stepfathers.
for all years of their board Iraq and Yugoslavia had all on 1 - 1,5 years of peace life. And during these periods there was a direct and real threat for their power.
In the end of 70 - h years in Iraq there was a fermentation. There was real a formation of wide oppositional front against Saddam Hussein`s mode. The Baghdad governor has launched war with the next Iran. For 10 years irano - the Iraq war were lost ten thousand. And first of all Saddam`s arrested and executed on " the opponents; to wartime laws “.
Having finished war in 1988, Saddam has not allowed to the citizens to relax long. And it is literally in a year has attacked other neighbouring country - Kuwait. This adventure has led “ to the Drill in desert “ and slow war which lasts and to this day.
Bagdad has actually lost control over the north and the country south, it has appeared in full isolation and blockade. However conditions of a constant hysteria allow Saddam to spend regular “ cleanings “ eliminating not only real, but also potential opponents.
Milosevic`s Formula has appeared in 1991 when for the first time its power has hung on a hair. In the spring of this year the country was overflowed by meetings and the demonstrations of the opposition which has outgrown in campaign of civil disobedience. The wave of protests managed to be brought down, only having begun war with Croatia. Milosevic has urged compatriots to unite in the face of the external enemy, and leaders of opposition have been compelled to become silent or make common cause with the authorities.
it there was a first Yugoslavian war. It was followed by the new. In 1992 stirred by Milosevic to action for independence the Croatian Serbs have created almost independent state in territory of Croatia - Serbian Krainu. They demanded independence. The international intermediaries in which number there was also Russia, have offered them the special status (as a matter of fact, “ the state in the state “) .
From the point of view of the Serbian national interests this offer was ideal. But it represented real danger to Milosevic`s power. The leaders of Krainy possessing an aura of fighters for the Serbian national ideals, quite could apply for the power not only in the unrecognized republic, but also in the Serbia.
Milosevic has rejected the plan of the international intermediaries. The Russian diplomat participating in negotiations told to the correspondent: “ When Milosevic has refused the plan, I was called by the exulting adviser of Croatian president Tudzhmana and has invited in restaurant. ` I am ready to put a candle for Milosevic`s health in orthodox church, - he has told to me, - after all bolshego he could not think up a gift of Croatia ` “. In two years the Croatian Serbs have lost all and have appeared refugees. And about leaders of Serbian Krainy have already forgotten.
in 1995 Milosevic has handed over already Bosnian colleagues, having signed painful for them the Dayton world. Before some plans of settlement - much more favourable, rather than Dayton were offered to Serbs of Bosnia. From Milosevic`s giving the Bosnian Serbs rejected them. After all personally they did not give it anything. And on the Dayton world Milosevic has received the status of the guarantor. If the West wanted to preserve the peace in Bosnia, he should agree on Milosevic`s preservation in power.
present crisis on the Balkans was not inevitable. If Milosevic has signed the agreement across Kosovo which basically has already approved in Rambouillet, NATO blows would not be.
Kosovo would remain as a part of Serbia, having received the status of a wide political autonomy. But then Albanians would come to the Yugoslavian parliament. Together with representatives of Montenegro who are in opposition to Milosevic, they would generate the majority on an extreme measure in one of chambers. Promotion of a vote of no confidence to president SRJU, that is Milosevic would become the first decision of such parliament. Such variant would be painful, but the comprehensible decision for Serbs. But not for their leader. And Milosevic began to run meaningly business to bombardments. De - fakto having lost Kosovo, Milosevic will even more strengthen the power. As, definitively having strangled in the conditions of a wartime opposition, it finally will present delivery of Kosovo as the price for rescue of Serbia.
both Saddam Hussein, and Slobadan Milosevic repeatedly tried to involve Moscow that then to play contradictions between Russia and the West in the adventures. However each time these attempts came to an end with a failure. Moscow eventually sided with the world community, instead of the dictators, trying to manipulate it.
but recently, seemingly, Bagdad and Belgrad manage to achieve success. In the end of the last year, after blows of the USA and Great Britain across Iraq, Moscow has undertaken unexpectedly sharp demarche, having withdrawn the ambassadors from these countries.
This time Moscow has taken of sharper position. The military representative of the Russian Federation at the NATO is already withdrawn, all relations with an alliance are frozen. Conversations on a possible unilateral exit of Russia from a mode of embargo on arms supplies of Yugoslavia are had.
matter is not that the Iraq and Yugoslavian diplomats have learnt to work better. The reason of transformation of the Russian position in other: Moscow has, seemingly, decided to add to the arsenal elements of strategy of Saddam - Milosevic. After all to hold the country in constant mobilisation readiness, frightening of its intrigues of the NATO where it is easier, than, say, to agree with IMF and to spend economic reforms. Besides this strategy much more expands possibilities of preservation of the power. Here only for the country and its people it is pernicious. That the destiny of Iraq and Serbia visually shows.