The dollar without the Central Bank hardly keepsthe currency market
Yesterday following the results of the auctions in the currency market a dollar exchange rate has stopped around a mark 30,55 rbl./ $ that only for 1 copeck below closing of Friday. At the same time the official rate has been established for 11 copecks more low - at level 30,46 rbl./ $. Thus, the Central bank has given again to dealers to search for a balance point in the market.
yesterday in the Russian market dollar exchange rate speculation for the fall has renewed. At the very beginning of the auctions, seeing absence of the Central Bank in the market, dealers began to sell actively currency. As a result the course was rolled away to a mark 30,43 rbl./ $. It has led to that the dollar official rate has been established on a mark 30,46 rbl./ $ that for 11 copecks below value of Friday. However it happens from - for features of an establishment of an official rate - the Central Bank establishes it at the average price on 11. 00 under transactions with delivery “ tomorrow “.
However at the reached levels speculators were frightened of own boldness. As in the beginning of June they already faced in a similar situation deficiency of the currency which have led to serious losses. And closing of too aggressive short positions by them has led to dollar exchange rate restoration - by the end of day it has returned to a mark 30,55 rbl./ $. Almost at this level the market was closed and past Friday.
however participants of the market are inclined to consider this level more likely as a time stop. In the general opinion, dollar exchange rate decrease will proceed and further. As traders joke, the pre-crisis course 6,5 rbl./ $ becomes serious level of resistance. Thus recently acceleration of this process obviously was outlined. Since January of this year the dollar has lost about 4,7 %. From them last month it was necessary more than 2 %, and nearby 1 % last three days.
Apparently, expected in June - July decrease in a stream of an export gain from - for falling of the prices for oil in March - April will not lead to tendency change. According to operators, banks continue to open as soon as possible short positions. And though separate jumps of a course are possible, but it will not result in change of a tendency. Besides the current prices for oil are high enough (quotations Russian Urals have reached $27 for barrel), and preservations of superfluous level of currency liquidity can be expected at least prior to the beginning of autumn.
ALEXEY - BAJBAKOV