For that to wait from the power?
the big revelation Will declare, what the political mode in Russia rather reminds constitutional monarchy in that kind in what it existed in a XIX-th century in Europe? And whether the big revelation will assert, what the head of the state, realising the powers caused by such political mode, holds reins of government in the hands, completely supervising process of acceptance of the major decisions? Unlike the first the answer to the second question at all so is obvious. Moreover, the public opinion of the country tends to to consider an affirmative reply in this case as display of political naivety. The opinion extended in the top echelons of the government, however, others. The people allocated owing to the competence with all completeness of the power, amuse themselves illusions concerning that, freedom of maneuver given by it by management style of the higher official of the country is how much great.
It is a question, certainly, not of official statements in which a tongue twister like transfer of the state regalia of former Soviet leaders assurances sound that the president is in magnificent, hardly probable not to the fantastic, physical and intellectual form. The problem not in Boris Yeltsin`s condition, and in how much the form or style of a management of the country reflects or hides the maintenance of this management. Already mentioned definition “ vizantizm “ which a number of the western political scientists is characterised by features of the Kremlin policy, can become a basic point in the analysis of mutual relations at the top of a pyramid of the Russian state machinery. For the Byzantian model of management constant game which is conducted with each other by the head of the state and its confidants is characteristic. The first - aspiring to keep all completeness of the power that from - for its omnitude basically it is impossible. The second - in hope it to appear involved in process of realisation of this power, and participation degree is usually defined by degree of affinity to the head of the state. Infinite intrigues by a principle “ all against all “ the short-term unions and constant enmity, hearings, use plebsa that in a role of the supernumerary as the tool for elimination of political opponents - all it can apply for laurels vizantizma only when rises on the absolute level both political grace, and human perfidy. The process essence is always reduced to the simple barter transaction as the goods in which the power, on the one hand, acts, and with another - personal fidelity. Practice has shown, as that, and other goods in most cases appeared poor-quality.
according to the high-ranking employee of presidential administration, not without hesitation soglasivshegosja to discuss this sort of theme, at the heart of periodically started hearings about health of the head of the state, accompanied “ inflow “ public interest to a question of control over use of levers of the power, two simple reasons - aspiration to shift responsibility and loyalty check lie always only. “ all the rest finally is reduced to one of two, “ - he considers. Also adds: “ the Second, truth, plays a smaller role as anybody already trusts nothing “. And to anybody - followed add. As the informed employees of governmental body, a situation both in an office, and in presidential structures now essentially other, than mark several months ago. “ All has started moving, - one of federal ministers has told in conversation with the correspondent. - there are no constant groupings. Today I here, tomorrow - there, and the day after tomorrow - in absolutely other company. I know precisely only with whom I and against whom. With whom and against whom others, I to trace simply not in a condition “. The above the supervision point, the is more than information. As a result in the most advantageous position there is the higher echelon of management which has an opportunity, most effectively interfering with interstine struggle, at any moment to supervise a situation: “ divide and dominate “.
As an example illustrating new tendencies, it is possible to name history with were vitse - the prime minister and the chairman of the State Property Committee Vladimir Polevanovym. Its prompt launch, and then so prompt change of behaviour after only month after the introduction into a post, sharpness from what it has opposed the first vitse - prime minister Anatoly Chubays, testify to serious support which it used in the Kremlin device. The Kremlin: that fact that indirectly critic Polevanovym of methods and results of voucher privatisation mentioned such figures as Victor Tchernomyrdin and Oleg Soskovets, excluded support at management level the federal government. “ do not concern it TEKa so and sat in GKI “ - one of employees of governmental body has assumed. However apparently, the thermal power station and aluminium were included into game conditions that, by the way, speaks and about level of support in the Kremlin. When all parties involved in the conflict have appeared in a stalemate, the president has made a course in truly Byzantian style. Having removed Polevanova, it has appointed it to completely not ritual post of the assistant to head Kontrolno - auditing management of the administration. By some estimations, it can apply for a post of the head of Crewe, Vladimir Zajtsev fulfilling to which duty, most likely, will be moved on other post. It is possible to guess feelings were vitse - a premiere when it, to the full having felt itself “ betrayed “ unexpectedly it appears on a post which not only does not cross out its career prospects, but also, in a sense, unties to it hands. “ a strong course, - the representative of administration has commented on Boris Yeltsin`s this decision. - and form a devoted environment “. Not without reason the case with Polevanovym has revived in hardware circles memory about oprichnine.
the Feeling of gratitude, undoubtedly, plays here an essential role for this reason it is meaningly cultivated - and podpityvaetsja by sense of guilt. As this sort of example name Pavel Grachev which authority as the military leader has been undermined by a course of operations in the North Caucasus. Demoralised by public criticism and straight talks about nominees of the successors Grachev, regularly having played a role “ a lightning rod “ Frunze can affirm even more strongly as the armchair in the street. Its fidelity to the head of the state, having received the next powerful impulse, will be after that hardly probable not absolute.
instability in the nearest environment of the president is therefore one of conditions of formation of a cohort of the people, ready to go “ up to the end “. A question, however, in with whom Boris Yeltsin is ready to go up to the end. While it is possible to speak with confidence about three figures, the role and which influence will not change at any public cataclysms: prime minister Victor Tchernomyrdin, the first assistant Victor Ilyushin and the chief of Central administrative board of protection Alexander Korzhakov. It those people whom (using the expression, attributed to the president) he trusts “ for two hundred percent “. It is curious that old colleague Yeltsin has not got to this circle across Sverdlovsk Oleg Lobov. According to the informed employees of presidential administration, its preservation speaks a post of the secretary of Security council, first of all, necessity of pressure upon military circles as in plans of reform of the Minister of Defence and expansion of functions of the Joint Staff to Security council it is assigned a part a certain counterbalance. Nevertheless, as it is possible to judge to some signs, Oleg Lobov already concerns those to whom the president trusts not on “ two hundred “ but only on “ hundred “ percent. As consider in the presidential device, the question on Lobov`s moving is almost solved. While remains not clear, whether there will be it “ soft “ Variant of resignation in the spirit of the former prime minister Ivan Silaeva and the head who has left from a post of administration Yury Petrov or next “ new appointment “. In connection with last possibility the post of the head of presidential administration is mentioned - Sergey Filatov occupying her is going to retire. The leader of Federation of commodity producers Yury Skokov applies for the same post also, however its employees of administration estimate chances is low: “ the Chechen Republic, as a matter of fact, is original examination on fidelity, and at this examination Skokov of in any way has not shown. Though could “.
In a situation similar to Filatovym it has appeared now and the mayor of Moscow Yury Luzhkov, campaign against which, apparently, has partially achieved the object. While, however, nobody undertakes to predict, whether it will come to the end with Luzhkov`s change with its present first deputy Boris Nikolsky or titanic efforts to the mayor it will be possible to defend the post.
Anyway and irrespective of the fact which cards and in what order lie in a personnel pack, it is possible to draw only an unequivocal conclusion: in system of executive power a circle of persons, assured of the hardware future, it is insignificant it is narrow. The same situation and among legislators: the federal parliament will be already re-elected in December of this year. Similar instability and uncertainty in the future gives to the presidential power one essential advantage: guaranteeing more or less long-term stability, she can achieve support in a question which gradually turns to the main headache of the higher political management. Namely - in a question on carrying over of term of elections. If has under itself the basis circulating on last week in presidential and governmental circles the information on achievement of the basic arrangement about it between representatives of two branches of the power such course can be a success in regions only in the event that “ confidence of the future “ will capture also their political elite. Thereby the country leaders will overcome that boundary which separated in not so remote past “ Khruschev`s epoch “ from “ Brezhnev`s epoch “ - on change to initiatives and innovations stability will come. As its guarantor, obviously, the president - truth, not so in itself, and as the head of key political institute will act. Its change with this post will be possible only after it will define the successor, capable to provide a smooth overflowing of existing political elite during a new epoch.
In this case the political mode in Russia will remind even more Europe of a XIX-th century. Thus its leaders should consider experience of the predecessors: the majority of the political systems safely dominating in this century, have finished the existence under millstones of revolutions.
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