Situation in the Chechen Republic
the Main thing and, alas, traditional event of the last days in the Chechen Republic - new death. One victim we can name for certain: he/she is journalist Valentine Janus. Names of the others while are unknown. As, however, hardly probable not for the first time for forty days of war it is not known how many - nibud authentically what exactly occurred on Monday in Grozny - the arriving information has the most general character. It too very important news. It testifies that if yet in the North Caucasus in Moscow executive power - at least at level of mass-media - intercepts the initiative at those who costs in opposition to the power decision of the Chechen problem.
Today does not remain doubts that the Kremlin will be and henceforth steadily and despite of obvious failures to operate on the algorithm confirmed by Security council on December, 26th of last year. It provides destruction of a mode of Dudaev, provisional government Hadzhieva support, creation of a certain representative body of the people of the Chechen Republic and then conducting with it on behalf of the federal government of negotiations about the future relations of Grozny with Moscow. In other words, crisis round the Chechen Republic will be tightened for long time and will take away from Russia many forces.
however central nevertheless remain “ emerged on a surface “ and other problems which have sharply become aggravated as a result of military campaign. Therefore transition of a situation expected soon in the North Caucasus from a sharp phase in the chronic will be accompanied by opening “ the second front “ fierce struggle - this time at federal level. Numerous and influential “ the force centres “ in Russia already show obvious impatience and undoubtedly will consider “ a present situation “ rather favorable for attempt of redistribution of the power and the property.
Hence, the presidential and governmental structures internally consolidated as a result of the Chechen crisis, will concentrate all forces not involved in the North Caucasus to struggle against threats of the stability. First of all they will try “ to win back “ those adverse motives for executive power which have resulted from the first stage of operation in the Chechen Republic. It is necessary to expect activization of propaganda campaign and “ analysis of flights “. The first, but far not unique a victim, most likely, will from number “ the Chechen four “ (Egorov, Grachev, Stepashin and Erin), and a method - organizational transformation of corresponding departments. On high posts (and at all only in power departments), obviously, those officials who, from the point of view of the president, have most adequately proved in difficult days for it and on which it is possible to rely during not less heavy future times will be appointed.
More detailed forecast - a problem ungrateful, especially in the conditions of obvious and steadily accruing deficiency of trustworthy information. It is more expedient to bring preliminary results of a first stage of drama events coming nearer to end in the North Caucasus which simultaneously are a prologue to events future, including first of all at federal level. The fourth page of the today`s is entirely devoted these results.
ALEXANDER - SHIRYAEV