The Indian visitor will show something in its best lightPrime minister Vadzhpai has brought to Moscow hundred businessmen
Today official visit to Moscow the prime minister - the minister of India begins Atala Bihari Vadzhpai. A leitmotif present Russian - the Indian summit as it see in the Kremlin, expansion - the technical base of strategic partnership between Moscow and Delhi should become material.
all on economic front
Vizit Atala Bihari Vadzhpai to Russia is carried out in development of official visit of Vladimir Putin to India in December, 2002 according to the arrangement on carrying out annual Russian - the Indian summits, reached by leaders of two countries in 2000. The main emphasis during the present summit will be made on development and expansion trading - economic relations, is appreciable lagging behind political dialogue (now goods turnover between two countries makes scanty $1,2 mlrd). Not casually Indian prime minister during its present trip to Russia accompanies it is unprecedented large delegation of representatives of business circles into which have entered more than 100 persons. So impressive landing of the Indian business lands in Moscow for the first time.
the question on bilateral cooperation in nuclear area should become One of the most intriguing questions. It is expected that during visit of Delhi will raise the question about a construction of superplanned capacities on an atomic power station under construction by means of Russia “ Kudankulam “ in the south of India (project cost - $2,6 mlrd) and additional deliveries to India the Russian nuclear fuel. Thus prime minister Vadzhpai, apparently, will call the Russian colleague for cooperation activization on this direction, resting on a sharpness of a problem of the Indian power safety.
for Russia this theme rather delicate. On the one hand, it is a question of possibility to receive extremely favourable large orders. On the other hand, the probability is great that, having gone on new agreements in this area, Moscow will appear under fire of charges in ignoring of the obligations as member of so-called Group of nuclear suppliers (Nuclear supply group). That is in infringement of the international mode of non-distribution of the nuclear weapon and technologies. We will remind that in 1992 the Group of nuclear suppliers has toughened rules of delivery of nuclear materials and technologies. Thereupon in the West constantly remind that India does not participate in existing international mechanisms “ export control “.
In search of an exit which would allow to avoid safely complications with the West and thus to conclude mullions-strong transactions with India, the Russian side, most likely, will promise “ to work “ with others “ suppliers “ For softening of the restrictions entered by them on cooperation in nuclear sphere with India. It is expected that Indians will answer with any convincing steps showing readiness to follow to a mode of non-distribution.
will accept such Russian initiative to the Indian party uneasy. Delhi considers existing international contracts in this area discrimination, legalising nuclear monopoly of several world powers. India sees the basic obstacle in these documents for realisation of the ambitious nuclear program which are carried out within more than three decades. Thus the Indian management refers on is rocket - nuclear programs of Pakistan and China and military presence of the USA at Indian ocean.
at the same time each of the parties keeps a field for maneuver that creates quite good possibility for the compromise. It is important that the Indian party basically has already agreed to transfer in the future all atomic power stations under IAEA control - in a case, truth, “ Softening “ approaches of the international control bodies to a policy of India in sphere “ peace atom “.
One more delicate and is enough sensitive issue of negotiations - dual, or as are expressed in the Russian economic departments, discrimination, the relation of Delhi to the Russian exporters of finished goods. Concern of Moscow should cause that circumstance that from time to time India initiates the antidumping investigations discriminating the Russian business. In the answer the Indian party, most likely, will try to lower a problem on brakes, convincing Moscow that such cases have incidental character and cannot serve as a serious obstacle on a way of bilateral cooperation.
cooperation in oil and gas branch, in particular productive participation of Oil and gas corporation of India in working out together with " becomes much more pleasant theme; Rosneft “ deposits “ Sakhalin - 1 “ (Cumulative investments of the Indian party into this project will make $1,7 mlrd), and also participation “ Gazprom “ in development of shelf oil and gas deposits in bay of Bengal (now active prospecting works here are conducted).
it is expected that the higher Russian officials also will try to use next Russian - the Indian meeting at the highest levels to lobby interests of Open Society “ Russian aluminium “ applying for participation in competition on company Nalco privatisation. We will remind that Nalco is the owner of the largest in Asia deposits of bauxites with record-breaking low cost price of extraction of ore (the deposit is located in the Indian state of Orissa). However, the decision of a question on destiny Nalco and the Russian participation in working out of the Indian bauxites can be tightened - now company privatisation is suspended by the decision of the Indian government.
During the summit discussion of a wide range of questions military - technical cooperation (carrying out in the long term the next joint doctrines military - naval forces in water areas of Indian ocean and new purchases by India Russian avia - and the ship technics and licences) is planned. As to the contract on purchase by India of an aircraft carrier “ the Admiral of Pots “ and about 20 contracts on repair and ship modernisation for a total sum of $1,6 mlrd during the summit it is supposed to specify last details of this megatransaction discussed not one year. Contract signing is expected not during the summit, and in the end of November, during visit to Delhi Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Ivanov.
India we write, China in mind
During discussion of questions of the political block Moscow first of all will offer Delhi more active intermediary services on indo - Pakistan zamireniju (at a meeting in Alma - Ate in the summer of last year within the limits of meeting on interaction and trust measures in Asia Vladimir Putin already tried, though and without special results to spend this line during the separate meetings which have taken place there with Atalom Bihari Vadzhpai and the president of Pakistan Pervezom Musharrafom). The Russian side will try to convince mister Vadzhpai that in Pakistan, leaning against support of the USA, it is not visible to board Perveza Musharrafa of alternative, and it is necessary to reconcile to it. From its part Moscow is ready to call the Pakistan management for the termination of support of the terrorist structures operating in territory and outside of Pakistan by it, including in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.
formation tripartite Russian - indijsko - Chinese " becomes One more sensitive issue of political dialogue; an interaction pool “ which on a plan of the Kremlin experts would become a soft counterbalance to geopolitical leadership of the USA and one more form of strategic rapprochement of Moscow and Beijing. The last is especially important, as the Peoples Republic of China becomes more and more self-sufficient factor of world politics and gradually drifts from Russia, going to take in the remote prospect a place, probably, the main geopolitical competitor of the USA. Besides, such “ a triangle “ as hope in the Kremlin, could to play, for example, the special role in the Afghani problems.
following the results of visit signing of a package from ten documents, including Russian - the Indian declaration on global calls and threats of the international safety, agreements on scientific cooperation and an exchange of scientists in the area of academies of Sciences is planned. It is expected that Atal Bihari Vadzhpai will take part in solemn opening of representation of Confederation of the Indian industry in Moscow.
VLADIMIR - SEREBRYAKOV, SERGEY - STROKAN